Daines is out, Alme and Bodnar are in. Flint is in, Zinke is out. Sheehy is in ... a scuffle in the Senate. Just another week in Montana politics.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Well guys, whatever shall we talk about this week?! Let's start with the most recent bombshell, Rob, and that is that Steve Daines, withdrawing from the race and anointing his handpicked successor U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme. Daines' reasons for leaving the race were pretty vague.
Rob Saldin They were, and it is strange. Daines was in an excellent position to win a third term, and you just don't see too many people walk away under those conditions. He's explained it by saying he wants to travel less and spend more time with family, although he was also quoted as musing about the governor's office, though that'd still be a couple years off. But whatever the case may be, it was the way in which he exited that has been far more notable here. In one sense, it's just super impressive. Daines orchestrated things in such a way that his chosen successor, an unknown figure for most Montanans, won't face a real primary challenge from any number of well-positioned Republicans who would have been extremely interested in the Senate. Daines may also have kept some prominent Democrats on the sideline. Now, of course, it's too late for any of those people to get in, so A-plus for execution. But even by swampy Washington standards, it's an arrogant and just deeply cynical move. It deprives Montana voters, very much including Republican primary voters, from playing their role. Daines apparently considered it his job and his job alone to pick Montana's next senator.
Sally Mauk And there was bipartisan condemnation of this move too.
Rob Saldin Absolutely, and understandably.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, before Daines dropped out, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar, as expected, entered the race as an independent
Seaborn Larson Yep. We were at the Capitol on Wednesday for Seth Bodnar's official filing with the Secretary of State's office in Helena. And he came in, I think, really polished, but very, very on message. Again and again, he said some version of I'm an independent, and I think Montanans are, by and large, independent. And the two-party machines operated by political elites really have done worse for this country. That is a message I think we're going to hear a lot from Bodnar in the coming weeks and months. 12 hours later, Bodnar pointed at what just happened with Daines and said, see, this is what I'm talking about. This is the D.C. elites pulling strings rather than giving Montanans a truly open, democratic election process. His tone was much, much sharper than it had been in the press scrum a couple hours earlier. And we heard that in the video he posted that evening, quotes from that is, "You know, they must think we're stupid, but we see it for what it is - a sleazy insider plot." He called it a "corruption of our political system." It gave him some footing on this claim that as an independent, he wouldn't be involved in some of these arrangements. The race, now that candidate filing has closed, is a pretty wide field. There's three Republicans, five Democrats, two Libertarians, and officially one independent.
Sally Mauk And probably Bodnar's having to redo a bunch of ads that were targeting Sen. Daines. As we discussed before, Rob, no independent candidate has ever won a race in Montana, but Bodnar obviously believes he'll be the exception. In his campaign announcement, and before he knew Daines withdrew, he said this:
Seth Bodnar video "The American dream is getting crushed, and both parties are to blame. They pit us against each other while they line their own pockets. D.C. politicians like Steve Daines are protecting a system that works for the wealthy and connected, and nobody else. Certainly not for Montanans. It's a disgrace, and it's time to take back this country. We need a new approach, an independent senator who will fight for hardworking Montananans."
Sally Mauk And in a Q&A with reporters, Bodnar talked about opposing tariffs and opposing cuts to health care, and that sounds a lot like Democratic Party talking points, Rob.
Rob Saldin It does, Sally, which of course begs the question, why didn't he run as a Democrat? The obvious answer would seem to be that he just doesn't think a Democrat can win statewide in Montana anymore, and he very well might be right about that. But the trouble is, anyone who isn't a Republican in Montana has to have at least three things fall into place. First, you need to be running in a very favorable political environment, and on that front at least, things are looking very good for Bodnar so far. Second, you’ve got to have an unusually bad Republican opponent, and here I'd say it's just too early to say. We know Alme is a political novice, so maybe Bodnar will get lucky on that one, too. But third, you yourself have to be an unusually good candidate who unifies the non-GOP vote. And it's this leg of the stool, Sally, that looks very shaky, because the Democratic Party chair, Shannon O'Brien, has been awfully clear - the party doesn't want to fall in line behind Bodnar. Even if they did want to, they can't, because the party bylaws prohibit it. If that holds, it's just very hard to see a path for Bodnar, Sally.
Sally Mauk Well, the other surprise this week was Congressman Ryan Zinke also dropping out of his race citing health concerns and, like Daines, anointing his successor, conservative radio talk show host Aaron Flint. This had to have been in the works for some time, Rob.
Rob Saldin For sure, Sally. Early in the week before the Daines episode, this was the big surprise, and Flint had actually teased this over social media last week. He was in Washington for the State of the Union and sent out a picture of himself on the White House lawn alluding to some pending big news in Montana politics. Well, this was it. And it was an impressive rollout. Within minutes of Zinke's announcement, Flint had declared his candidacy, he had his first very professional video up, and then all the endorsements, obviously pre-arranged, came tumbling in from the top Republicans in the state as well as President Trump. So, this was all very dialed in, carefully planned, and it had a shock and awe feel to it. However, Sally, unlike Daines, Zinke did leave a couple days for some other people to consider jumping in.
Sally Mauk Here's part of what Aaron Flint had to say in his campaign announcement.
Aaron Flint video "Donald Trump is doing a great job, but radical politicians like AOC, Mamdani, and Bernie, they've taken over Washington. But here's the deal. They're coming for Montana next. Sanctuary cities, boys in girls’ sports, public lands being fenced off, locals priced out, and our way of life being pushed aside."
Sally Mauk Flint has a huge conservative Republican following, Seaborn, because of his radio show.
Seaborn Larson Big time. Flint's been on the political scene in Montana for over 10 years now. And I think the first time I met him was as Gov. Greg Gianforte's Communications Director during Gianforte's first run for governor back in 2016. A few years later, Flint's, as you mentioned, a Conservative radio host that's broadcast statewide. He's got a pretty robust digital presence as well. He's active on social media and I think he has a really loyal following by Conservatives in this state. Flint makes a lot of sense because he's had such a far reach for so many years now in Montana. He's a veteran. And he's carried the torch for Conservatives on his show in Montana and was a leading voice to criticize the Biden administration every weekday, every morning for years and years. Even as a radio host, he's the immediate front runner in this contest over Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, who was elected by huge margins in 2020 and again in 2024, though they were certainly more low-key campaigns than elections for other constitutional offices like governor or attorney general.
The other candidate in this primary, Al Olszewski is more widely known as 'Dr. Al'. He's a perennial candidate for office. He did hold office at the state Legislature a couple of sessions back, but in the time since, he's run for Congress, for governor, and for the U.S. Senate, and he's failed each time. But a lot of Conservatives are watching Olszewski's race here, because in 2022, he came within two points of beating Zinke in that primary. He really does have a strong base in the Flathead. Flint recently relocated there from Billings, and Jacobsen lives in Helena, outside the district. So, there's some math to be done, I think, about whether Olszewski is really all that far off from 34% in a three-way primary to maybe move on to the general.
Sally Mauk Some of the Democrats in that Western district race are taking credit for pushing Ryan Zinke out. Here's what Ryan Busse had to say:
Ryan Busse video "Well folks, it's true. Just weeks after I got in this race, we already scared Ryan Zinke right out. Truth is, it wasn't just me. The voters here, they hate the MAGA agenda."
Sally Mauk Do voters, Rob, hate the MAGA agenda enough to elect a Democrat?
Rob Saldin There's reason to doubt that. There's also a reason to doubt that Zinke was scared of Ryan Busse. But sure, Sally, overall, this is good news for Democrats. Remember, this is a district in which Democrats should have a fighting chance in a favorable political environment. And that's, of course, what we seem to have.
Two years ago, Tester narrowly won the western district in his Senate race. Now, Tester is Tester. Obviously, not every Democrat is going to be able to replicate that. But still, Democrats should have a way better chance here than in the statewide. And now, Zinke, the very well-known incumbent, is gone. Democrats just can't ask for a better setup than that. That said, Sally, Republicans have a very deep bench and any of those candidates that Seaborn just described should be very formidable in a general election.
Sally Mauk Lastly, Montana's other senator, Tim Sheehy, made news this week when he jumped in to help Capitol Police tackle a man protesting the war in Iran. And this happened at a Senate subcommittee hearing, Seaborn.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, Sally, this week's political news was just kind of haymaker after haymaker, I think. On Wednesday, in between the Bodnar filing and Daines dropping out, Sheehy made national headlines when a CBS reporter posted a video on social media of Sheehy rushing into this fracas where Capitol Police were trying to remove a protester from the Senate hearing room. This guy is still hollering and there's hands and arms flying around and here comes Sheehy to sweep up this guy by his legs. Sheehy, I should note here, is a former Navy SEAL, and the guy they're working on is Brian McGinnis, a Marine Corps veteran and Green Party candidate for federal office in North Carolina. In this video that was seen widely across social media, McGinnis gets his arm jammed up in the door frame, and you see it pop and twist in a way that doesn't look good. McGinnis said later on social media his arm is broken, and Sheehy was not really seen touching him when the arm snaps, and McGinnis didn't accuse Sheehy directly of breaking his arm as far as I've seen. McGinnis was charged by Capitol Police with several counts of assault on a police officer, resisting arrest and some other things. Sheehy, when he posted on social media about this, described his actions as trying to "de-escalate" the situation.
Sally Mauk He has a different definition of de-escalation, perhaps, than some people. Reaction to Sheehy's intervention, Rob, has been predictably mixed. Republicans think it was heroic, and Democrats think it was shameful.
Rob Saldin Right. It's the latest example, I guess, of how people can look at the same thing and come to quite different conclusions. Clearly, there are those who consider it to have been an appropriate response, even heroic. For others, it's just way over the top. The Capitol Police are, after all, trained for this kind of thing, deal with it fairly routinely, and were in the process of dealing with it in this particular case. So, critics of Sheehy's intervention note that it was jarring both because it was unnecessary, but also because he seemed to do it with a zeal and an aggressiveness that perhaps betrayed an eagerness to physically engage someone he considered to be an opponent. And his statement after the fact only reinforced that sense when he suggested that this guy came looking for a confrontation, and he got it.
Sally Mauk I've been covering Montana politics a long time, and I have to say this has been one of the most eventful weeks I've ever seen. Rob and Seaborn, thanks for helping us make some sense of it, and I'll talk to you next week. We'll see what happens.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
