Campaign Beat: GOP pushes party loyalty; Governor puts 'sanctuary cities' on notice

The Montana GOP prioritizes judicial elections and party loyalty; Gov. Greg Gianforte and Attorney General Austin Knudsen launch an investigation over a possible violation of the state’s "sanctuary city" ban; Democratic congressional candidates try to distinguish themselves.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.

Sitting in for Sally Mauk this week is MTPR Statehouse Reporter Shaylee Ragar.

Shaylee Ragar: Rob, Flathead District Court Judge Dan Wilson gave the keynote speech at an annual GOP gathering last weekend. He's running for the nonpartisan state Supreme Court, but he leans into the Conservative brand. Wilson talked about his decision to deny a request from the Bullock administration in 2020 to enforce mask mandates at small businesses in the Flathead.

Judge Dan Wilson “And if it happens to be Conservative, then call me guilty."

Shaylee Ragar: The GOP has focused on judicial races in recent cycles, but they seem to be making it a higher priority, Rob.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, Shaylee, you're right, of course, to note that these Supreme Court elections are nonpartisan, and yet it's also the case that partisan politics often intrudes. In previous cycles, we've seen figures from both parties make endorsements and cut TV advertisements and so forth. But it does seem to have intensified recently. And this was especially the case four years ago when James Brown was running against incumbent Ingrid Gustafson and the Republican Party did just about everything they could to make sure voters knew that Brown was their guy. They want to make that clear again, this time with Wilson. Not only did they have him give the keynote address, but they also formally endorsed him, which I believe isn't something we've seen before.

In any event, this is a natural step for the Republicans. For one thing, linking Wilson to the party could tip the scales in the election. It didn't work for James Brown four years ago, but this is a Republican state. Additionally, the Court really is the natural next step for the party because they've already won everything else. They finally managed to knock off Tester two years ago. And with that, they control every statewide office, and they have huge majorities in the Legislature as well. There are some notable intraparty divisions in the Republican caucuses in the Legislature, but nonetheless, they have commanding majorities. So you look now at what's impeding them at this point, and the obvious thing is the state Supreme Court. Some of the problems they've run into there have more to do with Republicans passing laws that are inconsistent with the state Constitution, but they think that at least some of it is about the particular individuals who are sitting on the Court. So swap in some people like Wilson, and you're going to get some different outcomes. And at least on some of the issues, they're almost certainly right about that.

Shaylee Ragar: I will note too that Judge Wilson is running against his colleague right now in this race, Flathead District Court Judge Amy Eddy. So, definitely an interesting race to keep an eye on.

Rob, you mentioned intraparty fighting in the Republican Party, which brings me to another major theme at this annual GOP event. Seaborn, you and I were both there. By no means is this a new debate for Montana Republicans to talk about party loyalty. But the new chair, Art Wittich, had a strong message for Republican lawmakers who sometimes break with party leadership.

MT GOP Chair Art Wittich: "No more RINOs, no more 'Solutions' (caucus), no more ultra-right wingers. You're either a Republican or you're a Democrat.”

Shaylee Ragar: Wittich may have been preaching to the choir there, Seaborn. Did you see any moderate lawmakers in attendance to hear that message?

Seaborn Larson: I definitely didn't, Shaylee, including those who live in Great Falls. And you're definitely right that this divide in the party has existed for a long time, but that became a little more entrenched in the days leading up to the event. A judge in Helena had just ruled that as a private organization, the Montana GOP was within its right to boot these Republicans, mostly moderates, from its convention last summer that blocked them from voting on party leadership. And the Republicans we're talking about there are those who have fallen under the Solutions Caucus banner for many years, or more recently the "Nasty Nine", which gained some infamy over in the Senate last session. Wittich raised that ruling as a big win, and those Republicans decided to spend their weekend somewhere else.

Wittich has been the GOP chair in Montana less than a year now, and his speech really focused on wanting to do away with labels within the party. I saw a couple people wince at that, but Wittich didn't mean that these coalition Republicans should be forgiven. He told me in an interview the next day that they should simply be considered Democrats now and effectively left behind by the party. The response generally from these coalition Republicans is that their loyalty is to district rather than to party heads like Art Wittich. But they were pretty effective last session in partnering with Democrats to pass key items like this property tax reform package. The idea was to lower most residential property taxes and target second homes and short-term rentals, but hardliners in the Republican Party are still furious about its passage. They had other ideas but lost out despite having a majority at the Legislature, and it's a major issue in the party today.

Shaylee Ragar: Yeah, you know, that was an interesting distinction made at this GOP event. Those who voted for the property tax package-those who didn't. and you know Rob, Governor Greg Gianforte proudly signed those property tax bills into law. What does his alignment with moderate Republicans mean for efforts to weed them out?

Rob Saldin: Yeah, Shaylee, it's a bit awkward, isn't it? Gianforte has had to navigate this tricky situation, but it's not exactly new. He's been having to do this for years now. And I think he's been pretty effective at it. There are a couple of things at play. First, just as governor, Gianforte does have a position that, while certainly partisan, is more than just that. Governors are often a little detached from the center of gravity in their party. They often do take seriously the idea that in some important respects, they represent the state as a whole and have a responsibility that extends beyond partisan politics in a way that's just very different from, say, the state party chair or even the legislative leaders. And second, Shaylee, it reflects that the Solutions Caucus isn't just a flash in the pan. They've been around for some time. And while there have been many efforts to primary them out of their positions, they've proven to be resilient. They've certainly lost some primaries over the years, but they've won their fair share too. So just as a practical matter, you've got to deal with them. They've also been remarkably influential in the Legislature, as Seaborn just noted, but also dating back many years now. And in that sense, they are essentially operating as a kind of old school faction, something like a party within a party. And this kind of thing used to be very common in national politics.

People are always complaining about the two-party system. In a large diverse country like the United States, it is kind of odd to only have two options. For most of American history, that's kind of not how it worked. Yes, we've only had two parties. Those two parties had really significant and institutionalized factions within them. We can think of the southern Democrats or the Liberal Republicans associated with Nelson Rockefeller and based in the northeast with some outposts on the Pacific coast, this kind of thing. That was the norm historically. It's been the last 30 years or so that have been the anomaly at the national level.

Here in Montana, we have something like that old factional type of party system. That's what we see with the Solutions Caucus within the state GOP. And of course, some of the establishment Republicans in Montana don't like that. They want to enforce conformity, but Gianforte has to deal with the political realities on the ground. And in any event, when it comes to the primaries, I suspect Gianforte will stay out of it for the most part.

And Shaylee, by the way, if there is one primary to watch this cycle with implications for all of this, I think it probably has to be that of Llew Jones, the long-time budget guru and unofficial leader of the Solutions Caucus who was termed out of his House seat and is now looking to return to the Senate to represent that sprawling district anchored by Shelby and Conrad. If Jones was to lose that, that would be a significant blow to the Solutions caucus.

Shaylee Ragar: That's certainly true. It will be an interesting race to watch. You know, during the session, Llew Jones was known to be a pretty important partner for Governor Greg Gianforte. I want to turn back to some other news that the governor made this week with Attorney General Austin Knudson. They announced an investigation into the City of Helena for possibly violating the state's sanctuary city ban. What kind of signal are they sending Seaborn?

Seaborn Larson: Gianforte and Knudsen this week I think said in pretty clear terms that any city that's formalizing a resistance to federal immigration enforcement should be prepared to see the power of the state government respond to that. The city of Helena, for example, just passed a resolution a couple weeks ago declaring the city commission does not want local police participating in concert with federal immigration authorities.

What the governor and the attorney general are raising here is a state law passed in 2021 that set out to ban sanctuary cities in Montana. That's shorthand for any local place that would essentially protect immigrants from federal agents. And what that law says is that local governments can face huge penalties if they enact policies to withhold information about someone's immigration or citizenship status. And so, in this case, the Helena City Commission approved a resolution, and that's something that's less than a policy. But it does instruct Helena police not to enter into an agreement with these federal immigration authorities. That resolution didn't really change anything. Already the Helena Police Department has declined to get involved with immigration busts, but the commission's vote here follows a great deal of encouragement from the community. City officials said this week, they wrote that resolution with state laws in mind. So, we believe they were prepared for this 2021 law to come up, but whether that resolution is a violation of the law will ultimately be up to a judge in the event that Knudsen's investigation advances it into the next steps.

As for other communities, Missoula and Bozeman recently have seen local officials kind of huddle up publicly about a response to the immigration crackdown that's happening in Chicago or Minneapolis, but Knudsen said this week he's not seen anything official in terms of policy or otherwise there. So, the state's focus is very much on Helena right now.

Shaylee Ragar: Democrats also debated immigration this week, actually. The four candidates running for the Western U.S. House seat, which is now held by incumbent Congressman Ryan Zinke, had their first public forum. And while they drew out a few differences between each other, they certainly agree on a lot. Rob, what is the winning candidate in that primary going to have to do to set himself apart to advance to the general election?

Rob Saldin: They're going to have to do something to distinguish themselves. And to the extent that they don't, if this sense of an undistinguished herd just remains in place until June, that really should favor Ryan Busse, because he does have some significant name recognition from his run for governor two years ago. Of course, he lost that race by a lot, but it nonetheless set him up nicely for the purposes of this Democratic primary.

A lot of that just has to do with most voters not living and breathing politics the way we do. Most people have more pressing concerns. That's somewhat less true for the average primary voter than it is for the average general election voter. But still, for those voters who don't follow politics really closely, they tend to rely on heuristics when making their decisions. The most obvious one is party, of course, but that's irrelevant for the primary. And when you take that off the table, name recognition is another big one. And that could loom large here. And if it does, again, that's just a significant advantage for Busse. When a lot of voters look at their ballot this spring, they'll have at least a flicker of recognition when they see Busse's name that they won't have for these other candidates. So if your name isn't Ryan Busse here, you've got to figure out a way to stand out from the herd.

Shaylee Ragar: Just for our listeners, those other candidates are Sam Forstag, Russell Cleveland, and Matt Rains. That's all we have time for today. Rob, Seaborn, thanks so much for joining.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.