A recent poll has good news for Montana Sen. Steve Daines' re-election chances. A longtime Democratic legislator enters the eastern district Congressional race. A new nonpartisan political group forms to elect "principled candidates." And past and present Montana politicians have opposing takes on the State of the Union
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, a polling firm known as American Pulse, conducted a recent poll of Montana voters on our Senate race, and the results show what you would expect. The Republican incumbent is ahead of all challengers so far.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally. So, the poll shows Daines with a share of the vote that's exceeding 50% in just about every matchup scenario this fall. The usual note on these polls – it's just a snapshot in time and could really change tomorrow or if done by a different pollster, and we're really far out of this election cycle so far. You'll notice we're not even talking about the primary election in June.
So, the high-level looks we got in this poll involved Daines, Democrat Reilly Neill and former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar, who's rumored to be gearing up for a Senate campaign. But we're not really on solid ground yet about whether he's going to run as a Democrat or as an Independent, and this poll looked at both possibilities.
So, when Daines and Neill go head-to-head, Daines takes his best share with 56% of respondents, and Neill got 37%.
In Daines versus Bodnar, the independent candidate, 51% of the respondents said they'd vote for Daines, and 42% said they go for Bodnar.
When it's Daines vs. Bodnar the Democrat, 54% said that they'd go for Daines, and 40% said they'd vote for Bodnar.
Bodnar's chances are at their worst when they're in a three-way general. If he's in as an Independent, Neill's in as a Democrat, and then Daines grabs 52% of respondents. Neill has 25% and Bodnar has 16% of respondents for this poll.
There's some competitive races out there, namely the Western Congressional District where we have a four-way primary for the Democratic side, but this poll focused entirely on the Senate race and what happens if Bodnar hops in.
Another interesting look we got here is with Bodnar's name recognition. Almost 60% of the respondents said they'd never heard of him. Daines of course is running for a third term in the Senate where he had far more name recognition among respondents. I'm going to note the poll ran between February 14th and 18th and sampled about 600 likely voters. The margin of error was about 4%.
Sally Mauk As Seaborn said, Rob, there are few surprises in this poll, but the caveats are, of course, that respondents were mostly Republican, and there's still a way to go till the November election.
Rob Saldin That's right, but the polling, relative to the various partisan groups, might just reflect how that plays out in the state of Montana at this point. I think these results are, as we've noted, about what you'd expect. It's just the latest indication of how dominant Republicans have become in Montana. The one thing that's perhaps a bit striking here is just how well Daines and the Montana Republicans have held up, even in this particular cycle, right? At the national level things couldn't be going much worse for Republicans insofar as this fall's election is concerned. Typically, the midterms are bad for the party controlling Washington. So right out of the gate, Republicans are on their heels. And then on top of that, Trump's favorability ratings are quite poor. And that's usually a very good indicator of how the mid-terms will go. So, again, bad for Republicans, and yet despite all the headwinds for the GOP in this cycle, Daines is right where you'd expect him to be under normal conditions.
Sally Mauk One surprise in the poll, Rob, was 50% of Missoula respondents had never heard of former UM President Seth Bodnar.
Rob Saldin Yeah, I'd have expected that to be a little higher in Missoula. It's probably a good reminder that most people don't follow politics very closely and they follow university affairs, even less, unless perhaps it involves the football coach.
Sally Mauk And they're not listening to our program, apparently, either.
Meanwhile, Seaborn, another Democrat, longtime state legislator Jonathan Windy Boy, has entered the eastern district congressional race.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally, Jonathan Windy Boy has been a real pillar of the state Legislature. He's been in office there since 2003. He's a Democrat from Box Elder and he's treated as the experienced legislator around the building that kind of comes with that kind of run. He's been a long-time member of the Appropriation committees as well as Education and Cultural Resource committees. Windy Boy said this week that experience has given him a lot of confidence in a district where Republicans have had really zero issue getting into Congress.
I think he gets respect around the building, especially for having a really independent streak. He doesn't buck the party in a really vocal manner, but for a Democrat, he's a really safe vote on anti-abortion legislation, which usually passes relatively easily through Montana's Republican-dominated Legislature. They don't need his vote. But he's also known for bringing some really heated debates down to a grinding halt to introduce the Indigenous perspective into policy discussions when things are kind of running fast and loose during these floor hearings.
This week, we saw a number of Democratic lawmakers really rally behind his candidacy, but we should note, he's got some checkered history at the Capitol as well. In 2019, we found out he was the subject of a sexual harassment investigation for a handful of texts. We don't really know who those were sent to and the legislative leadership had to confirm for press at the time that Windy Boy was involved because while it did lead to some procedural changes, there were no charges that came out of this. And that's what he said when we asked him what voters should think about that episode. He said, quote, "'Things come up in life "'and no crimes have been committed.'"
Sally Mauk Rob, besides having the baggage of running as a Democrat in the solid red, eastern district, Windy Boy also, as Seaborn just pointed out, has that sexual harassment history that will surely be a campaign issue, as much as he wants to downplay it.
Rob Saldin Yeah, it probably will, Sally, but I think he nonetheless has a decent chance of getting the nomination. And of course, the general election for whatever Democrat emerges here will be awfully difficult. And the Republican incumbent, Troy Downing, is both well-known and generally well-regarded. So in that sense, it's a different dynamic than just a few years ago when Matt Rosendale held the seat.
But the immediate task, of course, for Windy Boy is to get the nomination. There are now three Democrats vying for it. And I wouldn't call any of them well-known. Windy Boy, though, would seemingly have the highest profile given all his years in the Legislature, though it's also often the case that that reputation would be largely confined to his own legislative district. But even so, he should be better connected with the political class, and that could be a nice boost in the primary.
Sally, as for the harassment incident, I'm doubtful that that will be a major factor here. At a moment when we're getting a constant flow of Epstein-related news, the public details on Windy Boy's past actions just come off as relatively mild. But it's also certainly the case that Democratic primary voters will probably take that stuff more seriously than general election voters, and it is those Democratic voters that he needs to face first.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, there is a new organization called Beyond Party/Montana First that aims to elect quote, "principled candidates," and there are some familiar names behind this group.
Seaborn Larson Beyond Party/Montana First is an organization focused on supporting candidates that are close to the center who reject this kind of hyper-partisan politics that dominates public offices these days. They're also trying to take on sort of a Sisyphean task of fighting big money in elections.
The founding members of this organization, I think really represent a kind of a cross-section of these items. There's former Republican legislator, Frank Garner of Kalispell, who in 2024 helped spearhead a ballot initiative for election reform. It didn't succeed, but that would have introduced this top four method where the intent was to really give moderate candidates a better chance to reach the general election. There's also former Republican Governor Mark Racicot, whose dedication to principle over party the last couple of years has officially got him disowned by the state GOP. So, I got in touch with Racicot this week to talk about some of these objectives. And he pointed to a couple of things that Beyond Party can approach, like supporting Republican candidates we saw last legislative session, partner with Democrats on some key issues, even when it made the party furious. They're really keen on rejecting this current fixation by the Republican party also on introducing party labels into judicial elections. So, I asked Racicot, you know, Republicans just got into a real power in Montana. They dominate nearly every statewide office. Why would a critical mass essentially give up that power for something that proposes to work with the other side? And he was kind of beside himself at the question really. He said the accumulation of power is not the objective, it's to address the public good. And to give into this, what he called "human desire for power" would only tear democracy apart, even if that happens gradually over time.
Sally Mauk Rob, it does remain to be seen what, if any, influence this new group will have on the 2026 election.
Rob Saldin Yeah, and I should note, Sally, a number of the people involved in this effort are friends and colleagues. But that said, I do find it to be impressive, ambitious, idealistic, all at the same time. And the people at the center of it, I think, reflected in Seaborn's conversation with Racicot, they're in it for noble reasons. They care deeply about Montana and its people. They're concerned about where things are at in our politics and in our society and they want to preserve and defend the best of the Montana and American traditions.
Now, that said, I'll tell you what I've told some of them. It's just very hard to pull something like this off within the American political system, for better or worse. Our system and its rules are heavily biased toward two parties. So, one key question confronting people with the sensibilities that we see in this Beyond Party organization is whether your efforts are going to be more effective by operating within a party – trying to reform it from the inside out – or by operating from outside the party structure.
Sally Mauk Rob, reaction to the President's State of the Union address fell along party lines as usual, but I found it interesting that in an interview with CNBC, Senator Daines focused on Democrats not being more enthusiastic.
Sen. Steve Daines "Just look last night at the president's speech as Democrats stayed seated throughout most of the president's speech. Fundamental issues of America, patriotism, honoring veterans, honoring victims of horrible crimes. So, there's more than just the affordability issue."
Sally Mauk Rob, is there more than just the affordability issue?
Rob Saldin The thing is, Sally, when things like affordability and the economy are in a bad spot, that's hard for people to look past. It's certainly true that the economic disaster that many warned would come with Trump's tariffs and so forth hasn't materialized. But then again, you're not in a good place if the best campaign slogan you can come up with is, 'It's Not a Total Disaster.'
Sally Mauk Seaborn, critics of the Trump administration held an alternative event in D.C. called the State of the Swamp, and both former Senator Jon Tester and former Governor Steve Bullock, both Democrats, spoke at the event.
Seaborn Larson Politics is often a spectacle, Sally, but this, by every report I've read, was truly bizarre. This event center is filled with people wearing frog suits and drinking beers and sort of hooting and hollering at this stage, which cycled through Democrats past and current in a sort of rebuke of the State of the Union that was going on across town.
There were some bigger names than I expected. Robert De Niro was the keynote speaker. He followed Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frye, who's really been thrust into the national spotlight this year.
Former U.S. Senator Jon Tester was one of the people who sported this bright green frog hat when he participated in a panel about how Democrats should reclaim some of the ground by basically pushing back against Trump. And once he said they've reclaimed majorities in Congress, he said, they should impeach him.
Then Bullock took the stage a little bit later on – no hat, but he definitely still has that sort of roaring stage presence, you might remember from his time as governor. He spent a lot of time talking about Trump's prospect for nationalizing elections and prosecuting his political opponents. When the frogs responded with jeers, Bullock repeatedly called back, 'Don't boo. Organize'.
Former-Gov. Steve Bullock "The pathetic, whiny loser who knocked down our east wing thinks he can take down our democracy. He is wrong. We will fight and we will keep it. The state of our union is stronger than he thinks. It's more determined than he can imagine and tougher than he'll ever be. Go out and organize and thank you for being here tonight. "
Sally Mauk Rob, his speech was well received by that partisan audience.
Rob Saldin Yeah, it sure was. It sounds like he's still got the fire in the belly. It does make me wonder, Sally, what if anything he wants to do as a next act? His primary gig these days is running a bar with his brother on Last Chance Gulch, which he seems to enjoy, but I do wonder if he has the itch to get back in the ring. He's still relatively young, a kid, really, by politician standards. And while it's hard to see a path at this point to elected office in Montana, I do wonder if he might be both interested in and a very attractive candidate for various spots in a future Democratic administration.
Sally Mauk The campaign plots are thickening. Rob and Seaborn, thanks, and I'll talk to you next week.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
