Sen. Daines files for reelection, and raises eyebrows over his association with a controversial State Department nominee. Montana's incumbent congressmen stand by Trump's economic policies, but do voters? Will he or won't he? Former UM President Seth Bodnar has yet to announce his political ambitions.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Sitting in for Rob Saldin this week is University of Montana political scientist Christopher Muste.
Sally Mauk Chris, Senator Steve Daines was among many candidates who officially filed for reelection this week, but there wasn't a lot of fanfare, just a brief press release vowing to put Montana first and touting President Trump's endorsement.
Christopher Muste Yeah, Sally, it's very likely a deliberate strategy on the part of Daines, the low-key press release, not even really a big announcement or press conference. And that was combined with Daines being, according to some reports, the first candidate to file for any state elective office at the Secretary of State's office on Tuesday. So he's at the head of the line in terms of filing as a candidate, but he's also at the ahead of the lines in terms Montana politicians. He's been in office longer than any other statewide politician, and I think he feels like he doesn't really need to show his cards about his campaign themes and positions right now. You can see this partly in his response to the rumors about former UM President Seth Bodnar possibly challenging Daines, running as an independent or as a Democrat. And Daines said he would have to wait and see what happens, exact quote, before commenting on Bodner. So I think he's sort of sitting back.
He's got a lot of advantages. As an incumbent, he's running for his third term as senator, and he's well-known by the voters. He's very skilled at fundraising and campaigning as former head of the National Republican Senate Campaign Committee. And by the way, that stint included targeting Senator Jon Tester by fundraising against Tester, using some muscle to recruit Tim Sheehy to run and discouraging other well-known Republicans from running for that seat.
So, Daines actually has more to lose than to gain right now by being in the public eye, especially as Republicans in Washington have been on the defensive somewhat on issues like tariffs, the actions of ICE and out of touch responses to some of the violence there by Trump administration, and the Epstein files, affordability, economic measures. So it's not a happy time, necessarily, for a Republican to raise their head and to say, look at me right now.
Sally Mauk So keeping his head down is the strategy.
Christopher Muste It is. He's an incumbent. He is in a good position. The environment isn't bad out there for a Republican candidate, but there are risks out there. So, you know, there's the danger if the economy worsens or the public views Congress is not doing enough to rein in some of the Trump administration excesses. Daines could find himself having to scramble to rebuild support in Montana or try to be more defensive than he can do, sort of functionally, by just sitting there and not engaging and wait until a Democratic challenger emerges. He really doesn't have a target right now to go after in campaign speeches and on the stump.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, Senator Daines also made news this week when he introduced Bozeman resident Jeremy Carl at a Senate hearing on Carl's nomination to be Assistant Secretary of State for International Relations. Carl is a controversial nominee in part for his past comments about the Holocaust and about race. And here's what Carl said in response to a question about anti-white discrimination:
"I'm not running away from that," Carl said. "I think that while, of course, all races in different contexts can be subject to really severe discrimination, that when we look at our legal structures, white Americans are often very disfavored in overt ways. We're seeing this in the small business administration, many other places."
Sally Mauk And this is a common theme among white supremacists, Seaborn, that whites are the true victims of discrimination.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally. So for some background, Carl's a senior fellow with a conservative think tank called the Claremont Institute. He's written about this far right conspiracy known as "great replacement theory," which suggests there's a secret plot to displace white people in the Western nations with immigrants. But Carl also had some other statements that got attention at this confirmation hearing. And those are generally accusing Jewish people of overplaying the tragedies of the Holocaust.
So, Carl came to Bozeman from California about five years ago. In 2024, Carl said he and his family moved to Montana because California was not the social and political environment he wanted to raise his family in. In 2022, Governor Greg Gianforte appointed him to the State Humanities Board, and that created some headlines because of Carl's past statements. The Humanities Board is this 19-member body that promotes literature and history and philosophy. And the governor's office told us this week that Carl resigned early from that term on the board, but they declined to comment any further and they certainly weren't rushing out to defend him after this hearing.
Senator Daines, meanwhile, gave Carl a pretty glowing introduction at that hearing last week. He said he was delighted to introduce Carl and that he's gotten to know him well over the past couple of years, said they'd had some great discussions on politics and some other things. But what we didn't hear Daines say is that he would actually vote to confirm Carl. And we asked that of the Daines team after the hearing, and they only pointed us to his opening remarks.
I'll add that during the hearing, which was pretty brutal for Carl, Daines never came in with any questions. Sometimes in these hearings, we'll see friendly senators throw a bone to these contentious Trump nominees. I remember last year, Montana Senator Tim Sheehy asked Pete Hegseth during his confirmation process for the Department of War how many pushups he can do. And in Carl's case, I thought it was telling when the camera zoomed out and Danes had left the room before that hearing ended. Still, during that hearing, Carl said he appreciated Daines' support through the nomination process.
Sally Mauk Well, it remains to be seen if we're going to see Jeremy Carl do push-ups, but Chris, Carl's nomination may be in jeopardy because of his views, as Seaborn just said, and his testimony, but does his association with Senator Daines hurt the Senator, do you think?
Christopher Muste Well, I think at this point, the association isn't that clear. Carl isn't as controversial nationally, or definitely not so far in Montana. But this is one of those dangers of the nomination and confirmation process. The Senate has to grill, supposedly, the nominees and make sure they're fit for office. And so this has already gotten one Republican senator from Utah to say that he's not going to vote for it. And that could tank the nomination, which in some sense might be good for Daines. If this lingers in the news, if more statements come out or the controversy seeps into Montana media more fully, then this is one of those things that Daines may be trying to avoid right now by sitting back and not coming out and running an aggressive campaign. It's kind of a minefield out there. Not a definite minus right now, but there's a potential for a little bit of damage.
Sally Mauk Well, Seaborn all of Montana's incumbent congressmen running for reelection are running on the Trump record, and western district Congressman Ryan Zinke told MTN News that Trump has been good for the economy.
"It takes a while, but the economy has to feel better, and it's beginning to feel a lot better and the sun is shining," Zinke said.
Sally Mauk And eastern district Congressman Troy Downing also says times are good:
"You're seeing inflation coming down, you're seeing the economy grow, and you're seeing the buying power that's staying in the pockets of average Americans being higher. So I think that that's the right path that the policies of the president and this Congress have already pushed forward," Downing said.
Sally Mauk Well, both Downing and Zinke are all in for Trump's policies, Seaborn.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally, the Trump brand is certainly still the North Star for Republicans in Montana. Even before we got into the election cycle here, we see Zinke on national news programs defending Trump's approach to things like Venezuela, whether it's striking boats there or capturing the country's president. Daines has always been quick to mention the number of immigrants removed from the U.S. when people question if maybe his crackdown on immigration has gone too far. But both Daines and Zinke have some proximity to the president. Daines through his campaign efforts last cycle and through some foreign affairs work, while Zinke was Trump's first secretary of the Interior. Downing, meanwhile, was on a roster of Republicans last year who urged Trump to reverse course on this Argentinian beef deal. But he told the Billings Gazette last week that it's him who's done the 180, actually. Downing said if beef prices get above 10 bucks a pound, then people are gonna start turning towards other meat products, and that wouldn't fare well for Montana producers.
You know, a few weeks ago we heard Zinke at the GOP winter kickoff event in Great Falls speaking to candidates, and his rallying cry was really just to list off Conservative wins under the first year of the Trump administration. So it's a message the federal delegation is really urging downballot candidates to carry as well.
Sally Mauk Well, so Chris, it remains to be seen if voters are feeling the optimism about Trump's economic policies that Zinke and Downing and Daines are.
Christopher Muste Yeah, it's not clear at this point. I mean, there's a potential for the economy to go south. There's a potentially for it to do better. But part of the danger specifically for Montana's congressional delegation is that if the economy does go bad, that typically will have a serious effect on incumbents' reelection chances, and they're all incumbents. The other thing though, is that as Seaborn referred, some of the actions of the Trump administration in the economic field have directly affected some of the most important economic sectors in Montana – agriculture, tourism. Those constituents aren't likely to run wholeheartedly into the Democratic camp or fail to turn out to vote. But it's one more thing that the candidates have to address and have to try to overcome and reassure those constituents that yes, we're on your side. Yes, we're the right candidate for you to vote for.
I've noticed that Ryan Zinke sent out a mailer recently that touts the economic benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill, but actually he didn't call it the One Big Beautiful Bill, unless you look at the footnote in the upper right-hand corner that's at right angles to the main text. So he's touting the benefits to families, which I think is wise and valid. You know, there are going to be some tax breaks that are, although they're weighted towards the upper income, upper levels of the income distribution. But those tax cuts may not be enough to offset additional costs that are going to be borne by moderate and lower income families. For example, the increases in health care costs with government-sponsored health insurance that were in that very same bill. And so those economic issues are going to be something that they'll have to address one way or another, and that's a potential point for a Democratic candidate to go after Daines and Zinke and the rest of the congressional delegation on.
Sally Mauk And of course, there are towns across the Hi-Line that have lost Canadian tourists because of tariff policies and so on. There are lots of different factors and different parts of the state that could influence the election.
Christopher Muste Absolutely. And there's two national parks in Montana that are major economic engines in the areas around them. So we're very fortunate in a way that Yellowstone has that little right angled slice of space in Montana, because it really directs a lot of tourism dollars from Yellowstone into the gateway entrances to Yellowstone. And same with Glacier. I mean, that's all within Montana and brings a lot of tourism dollars, not just to the area right around Glacier, but western Montana in general.
Sally Mauk Lastly, candidates still have a few days to file for office and there's one potential Senate candidate we've yet to hear from that we mentioned earlier. Seaborn, the filing deadline is coming up.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally. So candidate filing closes on March 4th. It's a Wednesday, and for any independent candidates out there, they have until May 26th to submit their signed petitions to the Secretary of State's office. We're coming up.
Sally Mauk The big question is when and if Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, Chris, when or if he's going to announce.
Christopher Muste That's a good question, Sally. Where's Seth? His announcement when he was stepping down as UM president did say that he was going to take some time to carefully consider his next steps after eight years as UM President. And I think that's wise. He could possibly run for the Democratic nomination. Tester and some others have suggested that an independent candidate would do better than a Democrat. So I think we should give him some space, and as yet, there are no Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate seat who have actually bothered to file. And on the other hand, of course, An independent candidate would not have to run in a party primary, so they have the later filing deadline. On the third hand, running in a party primary does give a candidate a lot of opportunity to travel around the state campaigning, talking with voters and asking people to contribute to their campaign. So the time that Bodner takes in contemplating a run and not actually running is time that he could be using to introduce himself to the voters in Montana and not allowing the Republican Party and Senator Daines to define him.
Sally Mauk Well guys, we've run out of time. We'll keep our eye on those filing deadlines. Chris and Seaborne, thank you so much.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Sitting in for Rob Saldin this week is University of Montana political scientist Christopher Muste.
