The Montana political world awaits UM president Seth Bodnar's decision about his future, and Republicans aren't waiting to put out an attack ad. Democratic Senate candidate Reilly Neill thinks a conspiracy is behind a possible Bodnar Senate run. And new candidates with no political experience continue to enter the congressional races.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Montana Free Press Managing Editor Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin.
Sally Mauk There was a lot of speculation last week, including on this show, that University of Montana President Seth Bodnar was going to resign and then announce an Independent run for U.S. Senate. Well, the first part of that speculation came true this week. He has resigned.
Rob Saldin Indeed, he has Sally, and it sure reinforces what already seemed crystal clear last week: that he's going to run for the Senate. In fact, if that wasn't the plan, I just can't imagine he would have chosen this time to step away.
On campus the timing here in the second week of class is definitely a bit awkward. And in fact, the whole rollout, if we want to call it that, has been slightly awkward. A major transition like this in university leadership would typically happen during the summer or in between the semesters. It's a bit like having the football coach quit in the middle of a season because he wants to pursue a different career path. Not exactly the normal way these things go. But Sally, the academic calendar and the campaign calendar don't always line up.
Sally Mauk I appreciate the sports analogy there. No sooner had Bodnar resigned than a PAC called Leadership in Action put this ad out.
Leadership in Action Ad: "Seth Bodnar, planning a Senate campaign from his taxpayer-funded office in Main Hall? When Bodnar became president, he promised to respect Montana values and make college more affordable. But in-state tuition has skyrocketed 30% on Bodnar's watch, and Bodnar allowed a biological male to compete against women in women's sports. Seth Bodnar, planning Senate run on the taxpayer's dime is wrong, but Bodnar's record – tuition hikes and boys competing in girls' sports is far worse."
Sally Mauk First of all, Holly, Bodnar has not announced he's running, so this is premature, but tell us who Leadership in Action is.
Holly Michels Yeah, Sally, so this ad was distributed to journalists just a couple hours after that Bodnar resignation letter went out, and it was sent by Jake Eaton, who's a longtime Republican political strategist who's worked on lots of Republican campaigns. And it was paid for, like you said, by Leadership in Action, which is a political action committee that's worked to support Republican candidates in recent elections. Leadership in Action's Honorary Chair is Republican Attorney General Austin Knudsen. If you look at their website, you can see a lot of their content is highlighting and promoting things Knudsen has done.
You can also tell a lot about a group by who gives them money and how they spend it. And this group is funded by a lot of names and groups you often see giving to Republicans and Conservative causes. And then the group itself has also contributed a lot of money to state-level Conservative political groups in Montana, like Montanans for Fair Taxation and Montanans for a Fair Judiciary. The group has also funded Montana Policy Action, which is a group that was also in the news this week as a place that's collecting contributions to cover this pretty major lawsuit filed by a faction of Republicans who are challenging the state's new property taxes.
As for the ad itself, like we talked about last week and you and Rob just mentioned, rumors of this Bodnar run have been swirling around for a while, and it's clear that Leadership in Action took that to heart and got a head start here on this ad. It hits on a lot of things that anyone who's paying attention during the 2024 Senate race would remember, like a trans athlete participating in college sports. Bodnar's name isn't actually in the article cited in that ad. The story does explain that the NCAA is the governing body for college sports, not a college president.
As for that tuition claim, also it's the Board of Regents that sets tuition rates, and that's a governor-appointed board.
Another thing, though, the ad does mention is, as for planning that Senate run, it's claiming Bodnar did that on the taxpayers' dime. We don't know what Bodnar was doing with his work hours, but it has been the University of Montana spokesperson who's been responding to inquiries from the press about this situation.
Though like you said Sally, Bodnar has not actually declared a Senate campaign yet. It's clear though that Bodnar is in Republican crosshairs and they're deciding to spend money in this effort putting out ads against him even before he's declared his candidacy, instead of any of those Democrats, there's a handful of them who are running in their party's primary with the hopes of facing off against Republican Senator Steve Daines in the general election.
Bodnar's been a public figure at UM for eight years, so he's got a long resume, especially as the head of what Conservatives see as the Liberal University in Missoula. So there's a lot for them to dig into this campaign season and probably more to come.
Sally Mauk Speaking to what they're going to dig into, Rob, why am I not surprised that the ad mentions UM had a transgender athlete?
Rob Saldin Well, because it works. You can call it culture wars, you can call it Montana values. But this is basically what Tester was referencing last week in his text about the Democratic Party being toxic. And it's presumably one reason why Bodnar seems poised to run as an Independent. And that might blunt the attacks a little, but Republicans are still going to try to paint him as a closet Democrat with all the associations that carries in Montana.
These attacks have been effective for Republicans, I think, not simply because it's a gimmick or a distraction, but because people care about cultural issues. A mountain of polling data indicates the public views Democrats as out of step. This dynamic is something that Democrats and progressives often seem to struggle to fully appreciate. While they themselves often care very deeply about these cultural issues, they often seem surprised that people who disagree with them also take them very seriously. You can trace this dynamic back quite a ways. The journalist Thomas Frank had a minor sensation back in 2004 with his book, 'What's the Matter with Kansas?' The basic question he posed was, 'What's wrong with all these working class people who were voting for Republicans? Don't they know the Democratic Party's economic agenda would be better for them?'. Well now, fast forward two decades, the cultural gulf has only grown wider and many Democrats and progressives continue to be a bit baffled about why the working class is moving to the right. A significant part of the answer, Sally, is that yes, Democratic economic policy would, in fact, be better for such voters, but that's not the only thing people care about. They care about cultural issues too. And even though Bodnar is apparently running as an Independent, Republicans will be eager to link him to those same cultural issues.
I was a bit surprised they started doing it this week, although they likely see this as a great opportunity to define Bodnar before he has a chance to define himself. In any event, this is just the start. We'll be hearing a lot more of this.
Sally Mauk One of the Democratic candidates hoping to win Daine's Senate seat, Reilly Neill, put out a video also commenting on Bodnar's possible Independent candidacy.
Reilly Neill "It's very clear to me that Daines feels like he very well might lose to me in the general election. And he knows an Independent from Missoula, someone who just moved here in 2017, isn't going to win a statewide race, especially an Oxford-educated, intellectual, elite Independent, who is, for lack of a better term, completely corporate. So, this is the plan to keep the good old boys and Steve Daines in power in Montana. And I wouldn't doubt that Gianforte himself is behind this. He is Bodnar's boss on the Board of Regents after all."
Sally Mauk That's a little bit conspiratorial, Rob.
Rob Saldin At least a bit. You know, the knocks on Bodnar are the predictable ones, and among those we discussed last week. But beyond that, the video is just rather ridiculous. To start with, the idea that Daines is scared of Reilly Neill is not plausible. But on that point, at least, I suppose that's a way for Neill to try to establish herself as the leading Democratic candidate. So fair enough, perhaps. The rest of the message, though, is just unhinged. She's suggesting there that Jon Tester is secretly working with Daines in some kind of desperate attempt to stop her. That allegation, of course, raises a question of, well, why would Tester be joining up with Daines, his rather bitter political opponent, who played a considerable role in Tester's defeat two years ago? The reason Neill offers for this conspiracy against her is that Tester and Daines are apparently intent on maintaining the old boys club. Maybe this is one of those things that we're supposed to take seriously, but not literally. But on its face, this is the stuff of tinfoil hat conspiracy theories. And even if it does get her some attention, throwing something like that out there does, to my mind, undermine her credibility as a candidate.
Sally Mauk Meanwhile, Holly, there is another new entry in the Senate race, a political newcomer named Kate McLaughlin who has an ad out online.
Kate McLaughlin "I've lived in the squeeze. I've lived in poverty and I think now it's time for families to get a fair shot. Washington listens to lobbyists and insiders. And I'm here to listen to families and the working people of Montana."
Sally Mauk This is the same populist message, Holly, that Democrats are making across the country.
Holly Michels It is Sally. This new candidate, Kate McLaughlin, a Vermont native who moved to Montana back in 2001 per her campaign bio, really does seem to be zeroing in on that populist economic message. She's a Democrat who is trying to, it looks like, through her campaign, emphasize families. She's talking about health care costs, clean environment, ag markets, supporting manufacturing, getting rid of dark money in government, and then also accountability in government.
She has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, though she hasn't reported raising or spending any money yet to support her campaign, and her entry into this race brings a total of Democrats who announced campaigns in their parties primary to five. So there's a pretty big pool there. It'll be interesting to see how these candidates work to differentiate themselves.
Sally Mauk Switching to the House races, the eastern district candidate, Mike Eisenhauer, a Great Falls cardiologist, is running as an Independent, hoping to unseat incumbent Troy Downing.
Mike Eisenhauer "I think there's a growing constituency out there that are unhappy with the fringe elements at both ends, fringe element of the blue, fringe elements of the red. I think that there really is a growing majority in the middle."
Sally Mauk And this is the classic argument of Independent candidates, Rob.
Rob Saldin It is Sally, and he's got some data to back him up. You know, you can look over the last 30 years of Gallup polling on party identification, the options being Republican, Democrat, or Independent. Voters identifying as Independent have often exceeded those identifying with either of the two major parties. Some very recent data here, though, shows that gap about as favorable to Independents as it's ever been, with 45% calling themselves Independent and 27% identifying with each of the two parties. So that's notable.
The difficulty, Sally, is that it's not quite so clear in reality. And I'm reminded of this old line about Independents in Northern Ireland that goes something like, 'Okay, so you're an Independent. But are you a Catholic Independent or a Protestant Independent?' That's basically what plays out in the United States. There's a large body of political science research that shows that while a lot of people call themselves Independents, there are in fact very few true Independents in the sense of people who routinely vote for members of both parties. In reality most Independents lean strongly toward one party or the other and their actual voting behavior is remarkably similar to those who identify with one of the parties. So that's always the challenge for somebody who's trying to harness this Independent energy.
Sally Mauk Right. How do you break out of the pack, for one thing. There are a lot of candidates to track in these congressional races, but we are out of time for now. Holly and Rob, thanks, and I'll talk to you next week.
Note from MTPR News Director Sheri Quinn: While MTPR is licensed to the University of Montana, no UM officials or station management reviewed this coverage and analysis or had any editorial input.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Montana Free Press Managing Editor Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
