A House race rematch, a low-key incumbent, a MAGA candidate and an abortion initiative

Montana's western district congressional race is déjà vu all over again. Gov. Gianforte quietly announces he's running again, while his Democratic opponent hopes to make a loud splash. Republican Senatorial candidate Tim Sheehy goes full MAGA. Attorney General Austin Knudsen tries to keep an abortion initiative off the ballot.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Sally Mauk Rob, Montana's Western District Congressional race features the same two people who vied for the seat the last time, and that's Republican Ryan Zinke and Democrat Monica Tranel. Zinke is the incumbent, having beaten Tranel by about 3 percentage points in that last election. Why do you think she thinks this time will be any different?
 
Rob Saldin Well Sally, I think you start with the fact that she didn't lose by much last time. As you say, it was just a little over 3 percentage points. So she doesn't have to do way better, just a little better. And there's one big reason why it's not altogether unreasonable to think that she could do better this time. And that's the fact that Jon Tester is on the ballot, and the likelihood that she can catch some of his coattails. The reason this matters is that there's just way more money and resources that pour into these Senate campaigns than you see in a House campaign. As we've discussed, our particular Senate campaign is quite likely going to be the most contested one in the entire country. Well, this means the Tester operation is going to have all the resources it needs to get out the vote and so forth. And 2 years ago, I think that was a problem for Tranel. She really needed a big turnout in the Democratic strongholds, but in several of her key counties turnout was down in some cases by a lot. Gallatin in particular was a disappointment for her. Well, the Tester operation should be able to take care of that problem, and one would assume that nearly all of that will trickle down to help boost Tranel's numbers, too. So that's some cause for her to be optimistic. Now, the bad news for Tranel and Tester, for that matter, is that Trump is also almost certainly going to be on the ticket and that's going to boost Republican turnout. So one key question in all of this is whether the bump that Tranel should get from having Tester on the ballot, if that's going to be canceled out or perhaps even swamped by the Trump effect.
 
Sally Mauk Well, here's Tranel new television ad.

Monica Tranel Voiceover Montanans know what it takes to be a champion. Early mornings. Hard work. Dedication. I'm Monica Tranel. I learned those values growing up on a ranch, represented our country in the Olympics, and spent my career taking on powerful monopolies to save Montanans money. I approve this message. I'll work just as hard in Congress to make sure every Montanan can afford to live and raise a family here. 

Sally Mauk And Rob, most of the video in this ad is of Tranel rowing, reminding us she was an Olympic rower — in case anyone had forgotten. 

Rob Saldin Right. And Sally, I think even some of that footage that we see there, it was used in her spots from 2 years ago. Although some of it is new. I don't think we saw the football images last time and whatnot, but yes, it's definitely playing on familiar turf. It's definitely hitting on similar themes - though, they are good themes for a Montana Democrat.

And of course, I imagine we'll see some familiar material from Zinke, as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we're reminded of his military background, for instance. I guess I'll be more interested to see whether we get a reprise of that snake that featured so prominently at the end of the 2022 campaign. I suspect that one might be retired, but we'll have to wait and see.

Sally Mauk Meanwhile, you mentioned Congressman Zinke. He seems to be laying pretty low so far. Is that because he's confident or what, do you think?

Rob Saldin Yeah, maybe so. It strikes me as kind of a Zinke 2.0 that we're getting this time. You know, for such a long stretch he was always so aggressive and so ambitious, right, even by politician standards. Yet he uncharacteristically, to my mind, decided to pass on a Senate run this cycle. And you know, this from a guy who threw his hat in the ring to be Speaker of the House just a few weeks after arriving in Washington as a freshman member of Congress, and who humbly suggested himself as a potential running mate for Trump in 2016 when he was still in his first term in the House. And of course, that ambition, that aggressiveness, you got to say it paid off. He he did, after all, become Trump's Secretary of the Interior. But this time, I wonder if he calculated — correctly, in my estimation, that he had a better chance of retaining the House seat than winning the Senate seat. So, you know, Sally he probably is feeling confident. He's got a straight shot to the general election, then he's going to face a candidate he's already defeated. Plus, he's got Trump on the ticket, which again is going to bring out a set of voters who otherwise wouldn't show up. And on top of that, all those ethics scandals that dogged him a couple years ago — such a prominent feature of the last campaign. Well, at this point, those are two years further in the rearview mirror and he may kind of feel like he dodged a bullet on some of that stuff, and maybe it's just time to be thankful that he weathered that storm and has this House seat.

 Sally Mauk And the Speaker's seat might come open, who knows?

 Rob Saldin Yeah it might. Yeah, several more times! (Laughter)

 Sally Mauk Holly, Governor Gianforte, as expected, officially announced this week that he is indeed running for reelection. And he did it via a press release and not a lot of fanfare — and not many interviews have any, as far as I know.

Holly Michels Yeah Sally, this was a pretty low key way to announce that you're running again. The only interview that I can see he did was with Jonathan Ambarian, a TV reporter here in Helena. But otherwise, like you said, didn't do interviews with our reporter. The campaign didn't return a request for comment beyond what was in the press release.

Generally, when candidates say they're running for office, they'll do a press conference or something splashy to get attention, though there is probably less emphasis when you're an incumbent like Gianforte. Everyone knows who you are already, but it is a more quiet roll out than we're used to.

For comparison, when Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester announced he was seeking reelection, I was on the phone with him that day for an interview. And that's pretty typical.

When Gianforte ran for governor the first time back in 2016, he had a really big announcement, lots of press, big events, lots of signs out in front of a business in East Helena. But the second time in 2020, he did quietly file his paperwork with the Secretary of state, then made his announcements at the state Republican Convention shortly after that.

So, we've seen kind of both ends from him there. He does have a Republican challenger in his primary race. That's Republican Tanner Smith from the Flathead. But I think it's fair to say it's a pretty heavy lift for Smith. In his reporting, Jonathan Ambarian did ask Gianforte if he has plans to self-finance his campaign like he did in the past, and there wasn't a really direct answer. But we should note, besides the power of incumbency, Gianforte does have vast personal wealth to operate his campaign with.

Sally Mauk Meanwhile Holly, Ryan Busse, his Democratic opponent, is holding a news conference Tuesday to lay out his agenda.

Holly Michels Yep. This is more typical and especially from a first time candidate, what we'd see in a press conference. This will be held in the rotunda of the Capitol. That gets photos with all the trappings of the Capitol around him. That's an image he probably would like people to be seeing, and challengers generally need to be doing events like this where they can help articulate their policy to voters. It gets it out there in a way they hope goes broad across the state and helps them gain traction. So, a lot more typical for what you'd see from a challenger and I would bet as the campaign goes along, we'll see events like this from Gianforte. We had a lot of press conferences where he was out in 2020. You know, there's limited availability to ask questions at some of those, but, you know, having all the trappings of signs and getting your name and photo in the paper and all that. We'll see probably more from both candidates and probably a lot more from Busse as we go along.

Sally Mauk Rob, Republican Tim Sheehy wants to unseat Senator Tester. He spent part of this past week in Iowa campaigning for Donald Trump. And he also took time to pose for photos with two rather infamous members of Congress, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Ronny Jackson of Texas. And these are two MAGA heroes that Sheehy was posing with.

Rob Saldin Yeah, they sure are, Sally. You know, you got to remember, our parties today are just very weak institutions in the kind of formal, elite sense. The real power — it doesn't lie with folks like Mitch McConnell, right? McConnell may be the Republican leader in the Senate, but he doesn't control who his party nominates. The real power is in the hands of primary voters. And in today's Republican Party, that's the MAGA masses. And they love the Marjorie Taylor Greenes. They love the Ronny Jacksons, and, of course, Trump himself. Moreover, Republican primary voters have demonstrated time and time again over the course of eight years that all the things that shock many other Americans, right — the juvenile theatrics and the cruelty, resisting a peaceful transfer of power, January 6th, criminal indictments and so on — these aren't things that have to be overlooked and endured, quite the opposite. That's what they're here for. So that's the incentive structure at work for Sheehy, and that's why there is no real downside politically for him and whooping it up at the MAGA events in Iowa and posing with Greene and Jackson and so forth. And in fact, in Montana, it's not even clear that there's much of a downside when it comes to a general election. If Sheehy does end up being the nominee, he is not going to need a bunch of crossover voters, right? All he needs to win are Trump voters. He just needs to get Trump voters to also vote for him. In fact, he could even lose quite a large number of Trump voters and still win.

Sally Mauk Holly, Attorney General Austin Knudsen made headlines this week when he said a proposed initiative that would make abortion a constitutional right in Montana is "legally insufficient" to be on the November ballot. And supporters, Holly, I'm guessing of the initiative probably aren't surprised by his decision and they have promised to take him to court.

Holly Michels Yeah, that's right Sally. This story was first reported by Mara Silvers at the Montana Free Press, and her coverage explains the attorney general is charged with reviewing every ballot measure proposed in Montana to ensure it passes legal muster. And like you said, the AG here said he found it to be legally insufficient.

This is actually the second ballot issue that Knudsen has decided wasn't legally sufficient this cycle. In his memo, he wrote that he felt this measure does what he calls "log rolling," or putting multiple distinct political choices into one initiative. He also said the language would stop legislators from being able to pass regulations on abortion, and would deny voters the ability to express their views on abortion in the future.

After Knudsen rejected this measure, the Susan B. Anthony Group, which opposes access to abortion, praised his move and pointed to similar moves by other attorneys general in Florida, South Dakota and Arkansas who worked to halt abortion rights measures in their states. And like you said, the group supporting this measure, they're called Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights. They've said they plan to challenge Knudsen's decision. And that looks like what they do is ask the state Supreme Court to allow them to actually go out and gather signatures kind of overturning what Knudsen has said. That would allow them to try to qualify the measure for the ballot. That's what happened with the other measure that Knudsen shot down this cycle. That's one that would propose to allow for a top four primary in Montana. Knudsen made a similar argument when he said that was legally insufficient, saying it was 'log rolling' too. And like we said, the court overturned Knudsen, so we'll have to see what the court does here. The judiciary generally moves fairly quick. There's 10 days from when he rejects it to put this appeal before the state Supreme Court, and then they generally act pretty quickly because the measure needs to go up for signature gathering or not. That's a pretty intensive process to get something qualified. So we'll be watching there to see what the High Court says.

Sally Mauk Rob, Democrats would love to see this initiative on the fall ballot. They assume it would bring supporters of legal abortion to the polls, and that those supporters tend to vote Democrat up and down the ballot.

Rob Saldin Yeah, for sure. If it does make it on to the ballot, it's a pretty savvy move on the part of Democrats. Nationally we've definitely seen in the wake of the Dobbs decision that having abortion on the ballot, it does galvanize pro-choice Democratic voters. And so Montana Democrats are hoping for a replay of what we've seen in other states. Now, where that effect packs the biggest punch is when you've got a low turnout election. In a high turnout election, like we expect 2024 to be; a presidential year, a high profile Senate campaign, I suspect that any effect from something like this would be much more muted. You got to wonder, you know, who exactly is going to turn out next November to vote on abortion who wouldn't already be casting a ballot in a Trump/Biden rematch? You know, probably not a whole lot of people. But at the same time, in a really close Senate or congressional or other statewide election, it doesn't take all that many voters to make a big difference.

Sally Mauk Well, we're out of time, you guys. Holly and Rob, thank you. And I'll talk to you next week.

Rob Saldin Thank you. Sally.

Holly Michels Thanks Sally.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.