The two main candidates for governor spar over property taxes, housing costs and abortion. And the two candidates for the western district congressional race tussle over the same issues in recent debates.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m.
Sally Mauk: Rob, the two main candidates for governor, Greg Gianforte and Ryan Busse, held their one and only debate this week, and the challenger did his best to paint the incumbent as an out-of-touch rich guy who doesn't care about everyday Montanans and the incumbent argued Montana is doing great under his watch.
Rob Saldin: Right, Sally. Same basic themes we've been hearing throughout the campaign. Overall, I thought it was a good night for Gianforte. All indications are that he's in a strong position at this point in the campaign, so his task in the debate was pretty simple: just avoid an embarrassing gaffe or a major freakout - and he achieved that.
Busse, for his part, was on the attack throughout, much of it fairly personal in nature. Busse really seems to have leaned into this 'hit him where it hurts' theory that's currently in vogue in some Democratic circles that essentially coaches candidates to toss out their rational, wonky talking points in favor of more blunt and emotional appeals aimed at driving up negative impressions of their opponent. Well, the problem for Busse is that Gianforte isn't taking the bait these days. An average voter can watch that debate and see a governor who appears calm and composed and reasonable.
On the substance, I thought both candidates hit their marks reasonably well. A couple of specific areas that got my attention - one exchange that I thought ended up working well for Gianforte concerned energy in general, and the Held case in particular. That's the case, of course, in which Busse's sons are among the 16 kids who were arguing the state support for fossil fuels is a violation of their right in the state Constitution to a clean and healthful environment. And it seemed to me that Busse was on the defensive for that exchange. Of course, progressives love the Held case and care a great deal about combating climate change, but it's become clear that most Americans don't agree that that should be such a top priority. So the politics of it are such that he was probably speaking to people who already support him on that one. And then Gianforte takes this kind of seemingly sensible middle ground position with an all-of -the-above energy policy. And Busse is left in his final comment on the matter with a kind of 'me too' bit on limited nuclear.
By contrast, I continue to think the property tax issue is one that works really well for Busse, and he seemed to make the most of that in the debate.
Sally Mauk: Speaking of that, Holly, among the many issues the two candidates disagree about is who is responsible for Montana's soaring property taxes. Here's Gianforte's explanation:
Greg Gianforte: 'Property taxes are driven by local spending. Inflation over the last 20 years has averaged a little over 2% per year. And yet local spending - that's municipalities, the counties - has averaged 6% growth per year. If we're going to fix property taxes permanently, we've got to deal with local spending.'
Sally Mauk: Local government officials, Holly, strongly disagree with the governor that they're to blame.
Holly Michels: They really do, Sally. Going back, I remember even the last legislative session getting close to two years ago now, Gianforte has put the blame on local governments for rising property taxes for a really long time. But that's not the complete picture. A really large reason of why taxes went up is that appraisals, which are done by the State Department of Revenue every two years, just simply valued homes at far more than they were previously valued.
And like you said, counties have really pushed back hard against Gianforte. There is even a lawsuit involved in this at one point. They point out that they're capped by state law on how much they can actually increase their budgets. Of course, looking at property taxes there are a whole lot of other factors that go into that. There's levies that voters put into place that would increase taxes. When Gianforte is attacked by Busse over property taxes, he often points to a homestead exemption act that he will support in the next legislative session. Busse also criticizes Gianforte frequently for not adopting something that the past four governors have done, and that's adjusting rates, to put it really simply, that different types of property are taxed at which would hold residential property taxes flat.
Sally Mauk: Busse, Holly, hit the governor hard over his boasting that Montana is thriving.
Ryan Busse: 'You've been flying around the country claiming that there is a Montana miracle. And I want to ask the folks at home, do you feel like you're living through a Montana miracle? When you have to have three jobs to own a home? When your rent has gone up so much you can't afford to live in the place that you want to work in and raise your kids in? Does that feel like a miracle to you? It doesn't feel like a miracle to me.'
Sally Mauk: There's lots of blame to go around for high housing costs, Holly, but this is probably an effective attack line.
Holly Michels: This is something Busse, since he started his campaign, has really, really emphasized. And again, his main pitch for this is this conversion rate adjustment that something past governors have done. He does say, in an interview with The Montana Free Press recently, that he thinks there's more long term work to be done beyond that proposal. But he hasn't really talked about the specifics of what that would look like yet. For the most part, he's just really focused on attacking Gianforte, hammering this over and over offering up that simple plan. That's sort of what we heard from Busse through this whole election.
Sally Mauk: Rob, we've talked before about the impact CI-128, the abortion initiative, might have on some of the races. Abortion is an issue that clearly separates the two candidates for governor.
Greg Gianforte: "I'll be voting no on CI-128. I ran as a pro-life candidate. I think life is precious and it should be protected. But again, as we legislate and make policy, we have to build consensus around the issues. The reason I'll be voting no on 128 is it is too extreme."
Ryan Busse: "The governor should not be in the doctor's office with women telling them what they can and can't do. And Governor Gianforte has time after time gotten in the doctor's office with women and told them what they can't do. He signed five restrictive abortion bills. And he says, and I quote, I promise to sign more."
Sally Mauk: Are there single issue voters out there, Rob, where abortion will be the deciding factor, do you think?
Rob Saldin: Well, there are some, Sally, it's a question of how many. You know, there's no doubt that since the Dobbs decision, abortion is an issue that has worked to the Democrats' advantage. And we've seen many instances of voters who support abortion rights turning out to vote in higher numbers than normal. So, yes, it certainly helps Democrats to have this initiative on the ballot. That said, I'm pretty skeptical, Sally, that it's going to pack the punch that Democrats seem to think, or at least hope, that it will. And that's because we're in a presidential cycle here when turnout is always going to be high. A lot of the results that Democrats have in mind, by contrast, took place in low turnout elections. The 2022 referendum in Kansas, for example, received a lot of attention and understandably so. But that vote was part of a primary election in August. Well, it's a lot easier to see turnout go way up in elections that typically have very low turnout. But in the kind of high turnout election that we're going to have here in a few weeks, not so much. I do expect some people probably will turn out specifically because of CI-128 who otherwise wouldn't have voted. And while they're at it, most of them will fill out the rest of the ballot. And to the extent that happens, that probably benefits Democrats. And in a really close contest for, say, governor, sure, that could make a difference. But I am just skeptical that it's going to have some kind of overwhelming effect that we've seen in some of these other states.
Sally Mauk: The issue of wealth disparity, Holly, is also raised in the Western District congressional race between Ryan Zinke and Monica Tranel. Here's an exchange they had over housing costs in their recent debate.
Monica Tranel: "Ryan Zinke in Congress has not only done nothing to solve this problem, he is profiting off of our pain. He is operating two Airbnbs in Whitefish, charging us $26,000 a month. Anyone can go online and rent those Airbnbs now, today. This is exploiting an issue that we need to have fixed for personal enrichment. And we need a change. We need different."
Ryan Zinke: "Well, you know, Monica has spent the last four years viciously and falsely attacking me, my family, my businesses. She's lied about me being in Montana. She's lied about me selling public land. And her latest act is violation of my home. She entered our property and filmed - and jumped on our bed, by the way - who does that?"
Sally Mauk: And Zinke went on, Holly, to say his family doesn't feel safe because of Tranel's actions.
Holly Michels: Yeah, Sally. We weren't totally expecting that this forum between these two candidates would happen. Then it came together fairly quickly at the last minute, and it did get pretty intense. And we saw Zinke's frustrations come out at this debate. We talked in an earlier show about this ad Tranel put out where she actually rented one of Zinke's Airbnb properties in Whitefish. And since then, there's been a second ad where she's filming outside a different property in Whitefish that Zinke owns. He actually comes out at a point in the ad and waves at her and says, 'Hi, Monica'. Just kind of an awkward moment. I don't know if I've ever seen an ad like that before. But those two ads from Tranel, like you said, they're talking about housing and affordability in Montana. Democrats up and down the ballot this year are really hitting on what kind of place Montana is right now and who the state's affordable for. They're saying Republicans have made Montana this place where only the wealthy can survive. Tranel is taking that one step further, saying Zinke is part of that problem, that he's actually profiting off that change. You're using the example of these short term rentals that his family operates in Whitefish. She's saying he's disconnected from this issue. He's not the one to solve it in Congress. She would be. She's also made this claim that Zinke was illegally operating these properties and getting inappropriate tax breaks. But recent reporting from the Flathead Beacon shows that an issue with compliance has been fixed with the property and that tax break claim is actually a tax rebate that goes to every local property owner. Zinke, as we heard in that clip, is pretty frustrated with these attacks. He's defended those Airbnbs. He says that they're a family business. And he says that Tranel's ads have put that business at risk. He's saying Tranel entered his home - it is something that is available to rent through Airbnb, so it's not like she broke in, but again, he's clearly not happy about it.
Sally Mauk: Polls indicate this is a tight race, Rob, so maybe Tranel's aggressive strategy is working. What do you think?
Rob Saldin: I guess I'm not sure, Sally. I would note, though, that with this housing issue, she has done a nice job of one of the key things that any Montana Democrat needs to do, and that's to identify a local hook or an issue that is relevant to Montana and that doesn't neatly map onto our partisan divide. Doing that has the potential to not only speak directly to the unique concerns of Montana voters, but it can also disrupt the Republican playbook that seeks to nationalize the race and say, you know, that Tranel is just the same as Kamala Harris or whoever the other Democratic hate figures are at any particular moment. So with the housing issue, Tranel has identified an issue of real concern, as Holly says, for a lot of people, especially in the Western District and it's not one that gets kind of automatically coded as a Republican issue or a Democratic issue. So it upsets that process of nationalizing the election along those partisan lines that we see play out every evening on the cable news outlets. Now, whether her method of disseminating that message by showing up at Zinke's properties is perceived as appropriately holding this creep accountable or whether it's just creepy behavior on Tranel's part - you know, that's going to be in the eye of the beholder. And I guess we'll we'll get a sense of that here in a few weeks.
But, you know, Sally, bottom line, even if it's largely seen as appropriate - appropriately aggressive - it's not clear whether it's going to be enough. This western district with both Missoula and Bozeman, you know, that's a place where Democrats really should have their best chance of winning something outside of local elections, but it's still tough. Zinke is a well-known incumbent, and of course, Trump is on the ballot in what looks like a very close presidential election, which is going to bring out the MAGA bases, a significant chunk of whom would under other circumstances stay home. So Tranel is going to have her work cut out for her.
Sally Mauk: As you say, Rob, it's only a couple of more weeks to go before the ballots are in. Holly, Rob, thanks. Talk to you soon.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
