Montana’s attorney general faces an unprecedented sanction, but he still expects to be re-elected. A former park ranger insists Senate candidate Tim Sheehy accidentally shot himself in Glacier Park, despite the candidate’s denials. An outside group tries to insert the debate over trans athletes into a Montana Supreme Court race.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Sally Mauk: Holly, a state commission this week recommended that Attorney General Austin Knudsen be suspended from practicing law for three months for ethics violations during a dispute with the state Supreme Court. This is an unprecedented action against a sitting attorney general.
Holly Michels: Yes Sally, this is the only time that anyone I've talked to can ever remember anything like this happening. And, of course, this is also happening just a couple of weeks away from Election Day, which only adds to the unprecedented-ness of this scenario.
So, what we have is the Commission on Practice; they're tasked with overseeing the conduct of lawyers in Montana. They recommended that Knudsen be suspended for 90 days, like you said. That is short of the farthest the panel could have gone, which would have been disbarment, but still is a pretty serious step to take.
To recap really quickly how we got here: this comes from a dispute between the Legislature and the Judiciary back in 2021. Knudsen, in his role as attorney general, was the Legislature's lawyer there. And in that role, he made some fairly harsh statements toward the state Supreme Court. He questioned their impartiality, claimed they bailed themselves out. At one point, through a letter issued by his lieutenant, they said that Republican lawmakers would not comply with a court order. So, all pretty major steps that this commission objected to.
At his trial, Knudsen said he did wish cooler heads would have prevailed in this dispute. In his defense, he said he was acting aggressively at the behest of his clients — the Legislature. But this Commission on Practice panel determined that Knudsen's actions in this were disingenuous in the extreme. The panel chair also wrote that Knudsen acted with total disregard for the rule of law. They said he very much could have still aggressively defended his clients but done so in a more professional manner.
So, this recommendation now goes before the state Supreme Court, which can either uphold this decision, change it or reject it. We've already seen some justices recuse themselves from this process. Knudsen also has 30 days to lodge an appeal, which he said he'll do. So, at this point, it's kind of unclear what all this would mean going forward with him being suspended from practicing law. As attorney general he's not in court all day or anything like that, but the state Constitution does require the attorney general to be admitted to the practice of law. So, while we have this outcome at least of the panel here, this is not the end of the road for this whole ordeal. And we'll be waiting to see what the Supreme Court does and where Knudsen's appeal goes.
Sally Mauk: Rob, the public shame of potentially having his law license suspended is not, however, expected to keep Knudsen from being reelected.
Speaker 4 Yeah Sally, I don't think it will. This is the kind of professional humiliation that certainly would have carried a big impact, say, 10 years ago. It absolutely could have tanked a political campaign back then, and especially when the conduct in question is so central to the office that the candidate is seeking, as is obviously the case here. But in this era of Montana and U.S. politics, Sally, I just doubt that it will harm Knudsen all that much, at least in terms of the election. It might even help with some voters because it's more evidence that he's a fighter against all the 'bad people'.
Sally Mauk: Holly, in the Senate race, the source of the bullet in Republican Tim Sheehy's arm continues to be questioned, most notably by former Glacier Park ranger Kim Peach, who Sheehy told he had accidentally shot himself in the park. And that's a story Sheehy now says was a lie to protect his fellow soldiers in Afghanistan when he was wounded there. Now Peach is featured in this new TV ad.
Announcer: A gunshot is reported in Glacier Park. The suspect, Tim Sheehy, admits to Ranger Kim Peach that his Colt .45 fell and shot his right forearm.
Peach: I met Tim Sheehy at the hospital. He was bandaged and told me his gun had fallen and shot his arm.
Announcer: But now Sheehy changed his story, saying he lied to law enforcement, claiming the bullet was a war wound from Afghanistan, not Glacier.
Peach: But I know two things: Sheehy is a liar. And that bullet was from Glacier.
Announcer: Last Best Place PAC is responsible for the content of this ad.
Sally Mauk: And Peach, Holly, is adamant in this ad that Sheehy's wound was self-inflicted.
Holly Michels: He is, Sally. And of course, Sheehy is on the opposite of that side, like you said, equally adamant that this was a gunshot wound actually sustained in combat. But he's not released medical records that would definitively show that. This is why this issue's again back up in the forefront. This to me kind of falls into this October surprise category of news we're seeing a lot right now where this gunshot story initially broke way back in the spring. But now that ballots are out, we have Peach again in the news bringing this back to the forefront for voters. We saw stories published recently in The Washington Post and New York Times that both featured interviews with Peach. He did speak to national news outlets back in the spring, but that was anonymously. He also didn't, at that time, respond to requests from our reporter, Victoria Eavis, for an interview. But now he is telling his story. And he did tell our reporter, Victoria, that the timing of this has nothing to do with the election being right around the corner. It was just that he was finally ready to come forward now. He also said that he is a Democrat, but that he'd hope he would be doing the same thing if the party alignment were switched here. And, of course, like we just heard, he did cut an ad for a PAC that supports Tester and that ad's just furthering this messaging we've heard from Democrats through this whole election, that Sheehy's a liar, he can't be trusted. Now we're hearing it from someone specifically involved in this gunshot incident that I think earlier reporting just left a lot of questions. So, I think having a face to this is something Democrats are really hoping will hit home with voters as they've either got ballots in their hands right now or gearing up for Election Day soon.
Sally Mauk: Sheehy's business dealings, Holly, are also back in the news — specifically a $160 million worth of bonds Gallatin County signed off on for Sheehy's aerial firefighting company. But this was money that was supposed to go into expanding the company, most of which, however, went instead to paying off investors.
Holly Michels: Back in 2020, Bridger executives asked Gallatin County if it could use its good credit rating to raise the $160 million through a municipal bond offering. What Bridger said at the time is that would benefit the county because Bridger would hire more employees, they would build two hangars at the Belgrade airport and also be able to boost their firefighting efforts in Montana. But NBC News reported that after Bridger issued these bonds, about $134 million actually just went to the Blackstone Group — one of Bridger's investors. That reporting also found that only one of the hangars was ever actually built and the number of Bridger employees actually has dropped over time, not increased. Bridger’s finances are something that's kind of been in question this whole election cycle. Previous reporting's found that it was actually struggling financially.
Important to note here, Gallatin County wouldn't be on the hook if Bridger were to default, though this could hurt their credit ratings that they weren't able to make those bond payments. But what Sheehy has really done is made Bridger central to his campaign messaging, saying, 'Look, I founded this business. It's very successful here'. So that's why we're hearing so many ads from Democratic groups on the other side raising flags about how successful Bridger actually is.
Sally Mauk: Well, Rob as in the Knudsen case, it's not clear whether any of this bad press is going to hurt Sheehy's election chances.
Rob Saldin: Yeah, exactly, Sally. You'd think on some level this stuff would resonate. There's just been so much of it and so much that doesn't add up. It's actually kind of hard to keep track of everything that's out there on Sheehy. And Sheehy has done so little to respond effectively to it, which makes you wonder if there just might not be any very compelling responses he can make. To the extent that he has responded, it's often been of the nothing-to-see-here variety, or everyone is being mean to Sheehy or anyone who offers criticism of Sheehy is actually attacking all veterans. So, unless you're pretty deep into the MAGA fever swamps, this stuff reflects poorly on Sheehy. I just don't see any way of getting around that. And again, 10 years ago you could probably take any of, say, a half dozen of these things and they very well could have been the end of the road for Sheehy. But that's not the era we live in, and these things are coming late. I suspect the Tester campaign would have liked to have seen that ranger come forward a little earlier.
Sally Mauk: Holly, a PAC supporting Supreme Court candidate Dan Wilson has a new ad out attacking his opponent, Katherine Bidegaray. And here's that ad.
Announcer: Justice matters in the courtroom and on the playing field, Judge Dan Wilson will protect the integrity of girls' sports. But liberal activists like Kathy Bidegaray support a radical agenda that allows biological males in girl sports, compromising both fairness and safety. Wilson will bring common sense conservative values to the Montana Supreme Court, defending fairness and protecting our daughters' right to compete. Vote Judge Dan Wilson for Supreme Court. Conservative Balance. Montana Values.
Sally Mauk: This ad is attacking Bidegaray for an issue that, as far as I know, she has not addressed at all.
Holly Michels: Yeah, Sally. I've seen nothing being reported through this election. Nothing's come up in any of the forums with these candidates or even that this ad is claiming, maybe something like a past ruling from Bidegaray that would reference what's going on here — the claims this ad's making. And of course, judge candidates are also barred from saying how they'd rule on certain things that would come before them. But this ad is not actually from Dan Wilson himself. It's from a group called Leadership in Action that's backing him. And it's also echoing mailers that are going out in this race from the Republican State Central Committee, hitting on this issue of trans athletes in sports.
Sally, this is hitting on this anti-trans message we've seen from Republican candidates up and down the ballot this cycle from Tim Sheehy, Ryan Zinke, all the way down the ballot to the state legislative candidates who are sending mailers with similar messaging. And I think what this is, is in these nonpartisan judge races, you know, elections where voters are increasingly making choices based on party affiliation, this messaging indicates to voters where a judge candidate would maybe fall along those party lines if you were to put them in that bucket. And we've also seen bills to ban trans women from participating in sports come out of Montana Legislature and end up in the courts. So, this is something that very much at some point could be before the state Supreme Court with either Bidegaray or Wilson on it.
Sally Mauk: Rob, I know campaign operatives think the culture war stuff is a winning tactic or they wouldn't be doing it. But I do wonder if it's wearing thin with voters. What do you think?
Rob Saldin: I'm not sure it is, Sally. You know, we live in a political era where the cultural stuff resonates. It resonates a lot more than economics. And, you know, this particular attack, I think it really frustrates Democrats. They kind of make two points on this. First, they'll say, you know, well kind of on the merits, you know, this is a hysterical thing that the Republicans are putting out and they seize on some obscure isolated incident and blow it way out of proportion. And then Democrats I also see saying, you know, these these kinds of ads are to some degree unfair because it's really the kind of activist class, not necessarily Democratic Party officials who are out there pushing some of these issues. And the Republicans just lump us all together. Well, the trouble, it seems to me, is that for people who have some skepticism about everything in the trans agenda —and just look at polling, there are a lot of people who have skepticism about elements of it — that these arguments that Democrats make on this front just aren't going to be very compelling. And to some degree, they might even come off as a bit of gaslighting. And that's because they can see that, in fact, trans issues have recently become quite prominent in American life. In addition to that, you know, regardless of what Bidegaray or Tranel or Busse or whoever it is might say, you know, these issues really are quite important to an element of the Democratic base — namely white, college-educated progressives. Because that group is prominent, it packs a bigger punch on the cultural level. So all of this is kind of part of why Republicans are so easily able to link this agenda with the Democratic Party, even when they, to some degree, try to keep it at arm's length. And yeah, I think it's pretty powerful. As you say, Sally, that is why they keep doing it.
Sally Mauk: Well, we will keep doing the show and I'll talk to you both next week. Holly and Rob, thank you.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
