Governor candidates agree to debate; Housing costs are in the spotlight; NRA enters the fray

Voters will get one chance to see candidates for governor debate. Housing costs are in the spotlight. The NRA enters the fray in the U.S. Senate race.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin.  

Sally Mauk: Holly, after much bickering and baiting, the Republican and Democratic candidates for governor, Greg Gianforte and Ryan Busse have finally agreed to a debate to be moderated by Nonstop Local TV's Mike Dennison and Bradley Warren. Governor Gianforte turned down two other debates to be hosted by other news organizations, including Montana Public Radio. But, Holly, at least there will be a debate.

Holly Michels Yep. We finally got there after a lot of what you just alluded to, a lot of back and forth over these debates. Busse's campaign initially agreed to one and Gianforte's campaign ran out the clock on saying if they would or wouldn't engage. Then we saw Gianforte after the deadline say he would participate, say, 'Yeah, I'm not going to do that because I don't believe Busse's a serious candidate.' As part of the reasoning behind that, Gianforte cited that Busse hadn't released his income tax returns to the Associated Press, which Gianforte had done. So Busse turned around, released those tax documents, but then Gianforte still didn't agree to any of those traditional debates that we've seen held every other cycle.

Montana Television Network, which is one of the groups that puts on those debates, in a statement pointed out that they'd held a debate for governor candidates in every election cycle over the last 30 years. And that's similar for the other debate, which is put on in part by Montana PBS, MTPR, YPR and Lee Newspapers. But instead, like you pointed out, we have this debate now that both candidates have said they'll participate in. It's put on by Nonstop Local, which is an ABC Fox affiliate, and it is moderated, like you said, by longtime political journalists Mike Dennison and anchor Bradley Warren. We have a date for that debate, which is October 16th. That's shortly after absentee ballots are available in the mail. We don't know a lot of other details, such as the format, how it will be broadcast — those details, we're waiting to see how that shakes out. 

Sally Mauk: Rob, the incumbent usually has the most to lose and the challenger the most to gain in a debate. How do you see this playing out? 

Rob Saldin: Sally, Busse desperately wanted this debate. When a candidate desperately wants to debate, it's usually because they know they're behind and they're looking for an opportunity to shake things up. Of course, we all got a really good reminder back at the end of June in the presidential campaign that sometimes debates can do just that; rarely, but occasionally. So after this drawn out and rather embarrassing saga over whether there was going to be a debate at all — as you described, Holly — Busse now is going to get his shot for that shake up. He's clearly the underdog. He's playing from behind. So, he does have nothing to lose. I'd expect him to come out guns blazing and throw everything up against the wall and see if he can get under Gianforte's skin. Now, for Gianforte, his task will be to just play it cool and don't take the bait. That really should be pretty easy for an hour, but we have seen him lose his temper before.

Sally Mauk: Holly, a recent analysis by the National Association of Realtors found that Montana is now the least affordable state in the country to buy a house. That continues to be a top issue in this election season. Your news bureau recently quizzed the two candidates for the Western District congressional seat, incumbent Ryan Zinke and challenger Monica Tranel, on their views of what should be done about the housing problem. They were each asked five questions, but Zinke only answered one.

Holly Michels Yeah, Sally, like you just explained, housing is a huge issue, especially in this Western House district. You know, it includes Bozeman, Missoula, Kalispell and the Bitterroot, which has seen some of the largest housing price increases in the state. So, major issue.

Seaborn Larson, our reporter covering this congressional race, posed these policy questions to the candidates. And we did get responses from Tranel. We didn't get answers from everything on Zinke's part. Tranel said that housing is ranked very high among people she's talked with in the district as their main concern. She talked about this three-part housing plan she has, that she said would focus first on assessing the problem, and then trying to hold people accountable by going after corporate landlords who hike up prices, and then look at affordability through public/private partnerships to build more units.

Like you said, Zinke, didn’t respond to policy-focused questions for that story. It's worth saying that the campaign, after the story was published, said that it forgot to send those answers over. What the campaign did engage with was questions about Airbnbs that Zinke operates in Whitefish. Tranel and Zinke, both in this race and their match up in 2022, have sparred over Airbnbs with Zinke going after Tranel for Airbnb stock she owned last cycle that she said she sold since then, and Tranel attacking Zinke for Airbnbs he operates in the Flathead.

Sally Mauk: Tranel actually has a TV ad out about just that, where she's taking the viewer on a tour of a short-term rental Zinke owns. And here's that ad:

Tranel Narration: I'm Monica Tranel. We're about to go inside one of Ryan Zinke's real Airbnb rentals. As Interior Secretary, Zinke tried to cash in by selling off Montana's land to international developers. Now, he's buying up properties across Montana and jacking up the rent. $16,000 a month for this place (bed collapses). Housing profiteers like Ryan Zinke are the reason it's so expensive to live here. I'm Monica Tranel. I approve this message. I'm here to stop it.

Sally Mauk: That's quite the tour she gives, Holly.

Holly Michels This is a pretty interesting ad. It looks like Tranel's campaign rented out one of the Airbnbs of the Zinke family operates up in Whitefish. It's got her moving room through room, looking at things as she's making these critiques. And this is really hammering home this message that she's tried to emphasize this campaign, that Airbnbs are part of this affordability problem, that they're taking up space, they're jacking up rents for locals and she's really trying to tie Zinke to that. The reporting from Seaborn also pointed out there were some issues with how two Airbnbs were permitted that Zinke's family operates. The campaign has said that Zinke's wife is straightening that out with the city of Whitefish and they also are pretty critical of Tranel for making this ad saying it jeopardizes the family's business operations.

Sally Mauk: Well, Rob, this fits the theme a lot of Montana Democratic candidates, not just Tranel, are employing in this campaign season. And that is that 'rich Republicans' are trying to rip off regular Montanans.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, right, Sally. Certainly, housing does resonate these days, particularly in places like Missoula and Bozeman and the Flathead, but by no means limited to those areas. So, we do know that it's a top of mind issue for a lot of voters.

The difficulty, it seems, is pinning that on Zinke. You know, for one thing, people kind of know and expect that a lot of politicians are at the very least well-to-do or quite often straight up wealthy. So the fact that Zinke apparently owns a rental property in the Flathead, that's not necessarily shocking. The implication of the ad is that it's not even a particularly fancy rental. At one point there's an image of a bed that appears to be dysfunctional, but perhaps that just underscores the price gouging charge and gives off something of a slumlord vibe. Yet even if that's the case, it still might be a reach to credibly tag Zinke and his rental property as the culprit for something as big and complicated as the housing market.

I suppose the hope for Tranel here is maybe less about the granular details on this particular housing unit and more about telling a bigger picture about Tranel and her being a champion of the people. Whereas Zinke, he is out for himself. That's kind of the larger message here. And that certainly does resonate with the themes of the Tranel campaign in a broader sense. 

Sally Mauk: As the campaign season gets closer to November, it feels like the ads are getting more dire. Like this anti-Tester ad sponsored by the NRA, which shows an armed woman alone in her house as an intruder approaches. 

Woman speaking Where I live, you can't wait for 911. My family's safety is in my hands alone. But gun grabbers who've never been to Montana, let alone out here, want to take my rights away. My gun is in my pocket, but my senator is in theirs. Jon Tester failed to protect my right to self-defense. And that's why moms like me can't wait (sound of a shotgun racking) to fire him in November.

Sally Mauk: And according to this ad, Holly, Senator Tester is a 'gun grabber'.

Holly Michels This ad's part of a $2 million campaign by the NRA that includes digital buys and mailers to really go after Tester on the issue of firearms and the Second Amendment. It's been interesting to watch the discussion. I kind of feel like a lack of discussion this cycle on firearms in this race. Remember back in 2018 with Tester and Rosendale, it was such a major part of those campaigns, but I haven't heard about it as much this election until this ad came out. And clearly the NRA is trying to raise this issue here.

Like you said, it's got this woman that the NRA says there's an actual mom in Montana. She's got a shotgun she's using to scare off the man that's assumed to be there to break into her house. In that voiceover you hear about gun grabbers who've never been to Montana and that Tester failed to protect this mom's right to self-defense.

The ad itself doesn't actually say what sort of votes or things that the NRA is taking objection to with Tester here. But in separate statements, the NRA has said that they're going after Tester for things like supporting the nominations of Supreme Court Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson. They also referenced a 2022 bill that included things like grants for red flag laws and crisis prevention programs. Then also two different versions of the Manchin-Toomey amendment that were trying to close loopholes that let people buy guns without background checks at gun shows or online. It's worth pointing out that 2022 bill did get some Republican support as well when it cleared the Senate.

Tester's pointed out before that the kinds of bills he supports are trying to strike a balance between safety around firearms. You know, he's backed bills that would make it so people adjudicated to be a danger to themselves or others can't have guns. But then he's also done things like oppose databases or registries. And he split from his party when he opposed a ban on assault weapons.

On the NRA, Tester's campaign has also pointed out that Sheehy, according to a Politico report from June, was critical of the organization in audio obtained from 2023, where he said he wasn't the biggest fan of the NRA because he thought they were a mouthpiece for the gun industry and not focused on the Second Amendment.

The NRA is in a much different position, I think, than it was last time Montana had a Senate race. This is the organization's political arm's first buy this cycle, and they're doing it in Montana. Of course, our Senate race is very critical to control the Senate nationally. I'm curious to see how much of an impact this ad has. 

Sally Mauk: Rob, is gun control, which comes up in every Montana election, as Holly pointed out, is it really a vulnerability for Senator Tester?

Rob Saldin: Yeah, I think it is, Sally. It may be unfair, but it clearly is a vulnerability for Tester. The problem isn't really Tester's record on guns. It's the way the issue maps onto partisan politics. The bottom line is that for a lot of people, Republicans are the Second Amendment party and Democrats are the gun control party. And so even Democrats with moderate or even pro-gun records — records that might be way out of step with the mainstream of their party, to say nothing of the activist set — they find themselves on the defensive when it comes to guns, at least in a state like Montana.

The other reality is that with so many Republicans embracing the kind of fetishization of guns, even the most rabid pro-gun Democrat is just going to have an awfully hard time outgunning, so to speak, their Republican opponent.

Of course, the reality is, is that Tester's actual record is one that could be characterized as strongly pro-Second Amendment. It's a record, in fact, that gun control advocates don't approve of in many cases.

Sally Mauk: Well, another reality is that we're out of time. Rob and Holly, thank you. I'll talk to you next week.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.