The best of times, the worst of times; One of these ads is not like the others

A Republican candidate's new ad stands out for its subtlety. Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy says times are bad and change is needed, while Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte argues times are good and he should get another term. A national group opposed to abortion is going door-to-door in Montana. Rep. Zinke votes no on more aid for Israel.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspaper's State News Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Sally Mauk: Holly, some of the candidates in the Eastern District House race are starting to get some ads out to differentiate themselves, especially in the crowded Republican primary. And here's a new ad from former state legislator Joel Krautter.

Krautter Ad: I'm Joel Krautter, Republican candidate running for Congress in our eastern and central Montana congressional district. I've lived in eastern Montana, represented the communities and people out here. We don't need a Bozeman multi-millionaire representing eastern Montana in the U.S. Congress. Vote for me and I'll work to cut our taxes, strengthen Montana agriculture, support Montana small businesses, and work to secure the border.

Sally Mauk: Holly, this is a pretty straightforward ad with a dig at one of his opponents.

Holly Michels Yeah, it is, Sally. I think it's a pretty bare bones ad that Krautter has got posted to his Facebook page but doing the work of getting his name out there. It's got this image of him with an antelope he shot while he talks about how he's lived in eastern Montana and represented the district before. That's when he was a state legislator elected from Sidney. And then, like you said, it's got him saying the state doesn't need a Bozeman multi-millionaire representing this eastern Montana district. Though he doesn't name that person, the assumption is that's Troy Downing. Troy Downing is the current state auditor. And as a part of that job, he's required to live in Helena. But before that, he was a resident of Big Sky. He became wealthy after merging a company with Yahoo in the late 1990s, and later got into self-storage units after serving in the Air Force. Downing's in that primary, along with eight Republicans - so a pretty crowded field. I think it's interesting that it's not totally clear that that dig is at Downing. It doesn't name him. It fits a wealthy Bozeman politician that could loop in anybody from, you know, Governor Gianforte, Senator Steve Daines or even Tim Sheehy in that Senate race, but Downing is the only one who fits that for this House primary.

In this ad, Krautter hits on some classic Republican talking points, he talks about cutting taxes, strengthening agriculture, securing the border. For his border claim he's really not focusing on it like Downing or fellow primary candidate Elsie Arntzen are — they're really hitting that hard in their ads. I think Krautter faces an uphill battle in getting his message out. He's only raised about $65,000 over this race, so he's not able to make big TV ad buys or anything like that. But in this crowded primary field, a candidate could need just about 12.5% of the vote to emerge if that ends up pretty evenly divided. So, anything he can do to get his name out will help.

Sally Mauk: Rob, Krautter’s message, as Holly just mentioned — you know the message of cutting taxes and being pro-business — that's the traditional Republican spiel, but I think what's noteworthy about this ad is there were no culture war tropes.

Rob Saldin: Yeah exactly, Sally. When Krautter was in the Legislature, he was a member of the 'Solutions Caucus' — that's basically the more moderate group of Republicans in the Legislature — although they don't love that 'moderate' label. They'd prefer to think of themselves more as 'practical' or 'results oriented' conservatives, as opposed to the more performative strain of conservatives typified at the national level by people like Marjorie Taylor Greene or Matt Gaetz, and their analogs to those kinds of figures in the Legislature. And that does make Krautter something of a throwback in today's GOP. He's clearly not a Trump Republican. He doesn't even pretend to be one. He's more channeling that kind of Montana Republican we associate with former Governor Mark Racicot or Bob Brown, the former Secretary of State and 2004 gubernatorial nominee. Part of that, you know, has to do with policy positions and you see some of that in the ad. Part of it is just choosing to not attach yourself to Trump — quite the opposite for Krautter's explicitly said he's anti-Trump, which certainly sets him apart from basically all the other Montana Republicans.

Maybe more than any of that, Sally — and it gets to what you noted — the thing that strikes me about Krautter that distinguishes him from the other candidates in the second district in Montana — Republicans more generally — is his general disposition. He's he's kind of a big tent Republican, right? He's open to working with Democrats, finding points of consensus and so forth and he has a kind of happy warrior mentality. There's not a lot of anger there. There's none of the 'owning the libs' kind of mentality that is certainly, you know, been present on the American right for a long time but wasn't the dominant strain until relatively recently.

Sally Mauk: He's not a grievance candidate for sure, right? Well, Holly, Senate Republican candidate Tim Sheehy also has a new ad, and here's that ad.

Sheehy speaking: People are ready for a change. People are ready for a new generation of leadership. And they're also recognizing that, you know, you can only piss down my back and tell me it's raining so long till I start smelling it and say, you know what? Don't tell me the economy's great. Don't tell me inflation's down. Don't tell me that, you know, everything's rosy because it's not. We have serious problems. And from coast to coast, people are recognizing that. I talked to a gentleman from Miles City just the other day, who'd been voting Democrat his whole life. And he said, 'You know, I'm voting for Trump. I'm voting for Trump, and I'm voting down the ticket Republican because we can't continue to do this to our country. We just can't.' And again, I believe the labels 'Republican', 'Democrat', you know, long stopped meaning anything. I think we're down to the point of basic American values.

[0]=AZULeUWs2krb0fNvhg9L8cZMRrWVbDINTrly3L2shxP2OS1alu-BArIQf1HBCNB0oUzv5Mq6ylNee61NzildQj5uliq45ouInz8i_Az8VxHdUkrA9Enen4ZP4hIrVr2bO2mBG5Zpt_9zdcuB78LHZFDiA2g2rBV6DfuI038bXpp_XMACTd2O1Uvf4D9JIoKYV-cAo3-Mnq7i2oLRW7tYPRws&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Sally Mauk: Holly, Sheehy in this ad is bragging about a voter who plans to vote a straight Republican ticket. But then he asserts, party labels don't actually mean anything anymore.

Holly Michels Yeah, I think this is a pretty interesting ad from Sheehy. I'm wondering if it may have been an attempt to appeal to independents or maybe Montanans who aren't really strongly identifying with one party or another right now. That's something that I think will be an important group of voters in this Senate race.

We had a poll earlier this month that showed the race is incredibly tight right now with Sheehy up, but within the margin of error for the poll. That poll also showed Tester was leading by about 10% among independents, but that 11% of those independents were undecided. And those voters have played a pretty critical role in past Tester victories, as well as Tester being able to pick off Republicans who crossed over and voted for Tester. So I think it makes sense here that Sheehy will be working to appeal to a broad base, saying that party labels aren't what matters right now. It's more about what he's saying is this new generation of leadership and American values.

You know, I think this ad also, it's doing a lot to look at Sheehy saying,'look at the economy', 'look at inflation'. He's trying to tap into frustration over those two things. I think that's tapping into probably what national polling is showing — frustration over those two issues. And it's also been a big thorn in the side of Biden's administration. Despite a lot of economic indicators showing the economy overall is actually doing pretty decent, Biden's getting hammered on that and that's something Sheehy's trying to capitalize on. You know, trying to tie Tester to Biden through this race. Tester is having to do a lot of work to separate himself from that administration and Democratic leadership nationally. So I think this ad is doing a lot of things, but those are the things standing out to me about it.

Sally Mauk: As Holly just said, Rob, Sheehy is running on the message that things are really bad right now. But Republican Governor Greg Gianforte is campaigning on how much better off Montana has become in the last four years.

Rob Saldin: Right, Sally. Well, you know, they're they're running for different positions, right? One wants to be reelected governor and preside over things in Helena, and the other wants to move, somewhat counterintuitively, to Washington, which we're often told is some kind of dystopian hellscape. But I think the fact that they're running for different things just explains a lot. I suppose it's not altogether contradictory to say that things are not going well in Washington because of Biden and Schumer and Tester and so forth, but that here in Montana, because we have Gianforte and the Republican Legislature, things are much better. But it's true that the two messages do kind of contradict one another in a way and it will probably be awkward this fall, when we'll no doubt be subjected to back-to-back Sheehy and Gianforte ads, one suggesting that everything is awful and the next one suggesting we live in some kind of golden era of low taxes and freedom and such. So there's a tension there. But I don't think too many Republican voters are going to be all that bothered by this, Sally. It does, after all, kind of fit with one of the party's core messages, right? That Washington is a corrupt swamp, but that Montana things are good. And partly that's because we are so far removed from the horrors of Washington.

Sally Mauk: Last Best Place, right?

Rob Saldin: Exactly.

Sally Mauk: Holly, a national group known as Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America has sent a team to Montana to campaign against constitutional initiative 128, which aims to give constitutional protection to abortion in Montana. And I actually had one of their canvassers come to my door already. So, they're already out there pretty active.

Holly Michels I think this ballot issue is going to be a pretty big deal and draw a lot of this type of activity as we go through the period where its supporters are trying to qualify it for the ballot. The group that's backing this initiative, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights, they have until June to gather the required 60,000 signatures from at least 40 House districts in the state.

And, you know, like you noted, the Susan B. Anthony group, they work nationally to oppose abortion access, they've announced that they have actually a goal of raising and spending $92 million in this election over a handful of states, including Montana. It was actually a Fox News story from back in January that noted that the group did plan to have this on the ground presence, like you had come to your door, to help educate voters and for their efforts to try to not sign these petitions so that this ballot measure would not get qualified for the November ballot. So that's what we're seeing right now — a lot of work on both sides, both trying to stop the measure from getting qualified and to get it on that ballot. There's also a group called Montana Life Defense Fund that recently formed. It's associated with the Montana Family Foundation. They've registered to raise and spend money to oppose initiative. So, I think we might be seeing some other groups involved in those efforts too.

Sally Mauk: And all this canvasing, Rob, it's going to probably spur voters to go to the polls. So no matter which side of the issue you're on, given the kind of interest that they're generating here.

Rob Saldin: Well, yeah, it can't hurt bringing more attention to the issue. And right - presumably that would generate more interest and awareness in these issues that we'll be faced with, sure.

Sally Mauk: Lastly, Rob, Congressman Ryan Zinke recently voted against more funding for Israel, saying he objected to the bill also providing aid money to Gaza. Were you surprised by his vote? I was.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, I was surprised, Sally. You know, he voted 'no' on Ukraine aid as well. Although the thing that stands out about that one is that most of his fellow Republicans were with him on that. But on Israel, the overwhelming majority of Republicans supported aid, right? Zinke was just one of 21 Republicans to oppose it and I think that is surprising, because the other Republicans who voted 'no' are all the usual suspects, like Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz and MTG and Matt Rosendale and so on. So maybe you like Ryan Zinke, maybe you don't, but that's not usually the company he keeps. And on top of that, for a mainstream Republican, which I think he would consider himself, it sure seems like the path of least resistance was to support Israel. Right? Zinke he put out a statement right away, as you noted, Sally, explaining that he voted against it because, you know, there's also aid in there for Gaza. So, in effect, he's kind of saying that this bill wasn't sufficiently pro-Israel. And that, I suppose, has some internal logic. But it's complicated to explain because at least on the surface, it appears to be a vote that was anti-Israel. And in terms of what he might be thinking about, is it just a political calculation? You know, I suppose it's always possible that he just genuinely thinks this was a bad bill because it's essentially channeling money to Hamas and that he voted against it on those grounds, on the merits. But it's also the case, Sally, that Zinke has proven himself to be, even by politician standards, very ambitious. So, one does wonder if he's thinking about something coming up down the road. Maybe he has hopes that he might find himself back in Trump's cabinet in the second term, beginning here in January. Who knows, perhaps there's even a promotion in store from Secretary of the Interior to, say, Secretary of Defense.

Sally Mauk: Well, it's another busy week in politics. And Rob and Holly, thank you. We'll talk next week.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspaper's State News Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.