Busse makes his case; Candidates buck their party; He's not a president but he plays one on TV

The Democratic candidate for governor thinks Montanans are ready to reject Republicans. Rep. Matt Rosendale is having a very public feud with one of his Republican Senate colleagues. And former Gov. Steve Bullock stars in a new documentary about a potential civil war.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Sally Mauk Holly, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse held a press conference in the Capitol Rotunda this week, and he outlined what his priorities will be if elected and how his administration would be the opposite of the incumbent, Greg Gianforte's. 

Holly Michels Yeah, this was the Democratic challenger's first big press conference since he announced, and he had some really sharp criticisms of Gianforte. At a few points, he actually called Gianforte “fascist” and then made some pretty pointed critiques of the administration.

He did also offer up a couple policy points. Those included things like a housing program he said would target first responders, law enforcement and other essential workers and provide affordable housing, possibly through subsidies paid for by higher taxes on second homes owned by out of staters.

He also said he would rebuild the state health department and Fish, Wildlife and Parks — two agencies that he accused Gianforte of dismantling.

He also said he would end Gianforte's task force that was recently formed to look at rising property taxes. Busse said he thinks that's nothing but a way for Republicans to end up recommending that Montana needs a sales tax. Instead, he said he wants to see the Legislature review the rates each type of property are assessed and lower the burden on residential owners, increase it on commercial properties.

Gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse outlines his policy goals

Democrat Ryan Busse, who is running for governor, outlined policy goals Tuesday at the state Capitol.

He also drew some pretty sharp contrast between his stance on abortion and Gianforte's.

Outside of policy, Busse was pretty blunt in his assessment of the state GOP and Gianforte, and he worked really hard to paint them as out of touch in passing policies that have favored the wealthy.

A lot of the press conference felt like it was aimed at tapping into this feeling that Montana isn't the place it used to be, that it's too extreme, not livable or affordable for people who've been here a long time. Busse laid the blame for that at Gianforte's feet. I think that's something we're going to hear a lot from him this year and Busse thinks he can tap into Republicans who are frustrated with how things are going. He pointed to higher property taxes — Gianforte has put a lot of that blame on local county commissions. Busse says a lot of those commissioners are talking to him about their frustrations, and he thinks he'll be able to sway people like that.

He also thinks he'll be able to sway Republican women who he thinks are just as frustrated about abortion laws passed as Democrats. Generally he pitched this idea that he thinks that he can find common ground over things like good schools and affordable communities. But I think we know that's going to be a pretty heavy lift to peel off enough Republican support that led Gianforte to a landslide victory in 2020.

Sally Mauk Along those lines, here's what Busse had to say about his chances of winning the governor's seat.

Ryan Busse I have a lot of hope that the state is about ready to stand up and say, we may have reflexively voted 'R', but we didn't vote for this; this radicalized brand of anti-freedom.

Sally Mauk Rob, that's a pretty optimistic take.

Rob Saldin Yeah, it sure is, Sally. I mean, I suppose that's possible. I just haven't seen much in the way of any evidence to support some kind of widespread pushback on Gianforte's agenda. Now, that's not to say that he doesn't have some vulnerabilities. As we've discussed, Gianforte does have a problem on the property tax front, and that can easily and rather accurately even be framed — as you noted Holly — as a giveaway essentially to the wealthy and corporations at the expense of the little guy. So Busse should be able to sell some tickets there.

It's also true that there have been some high-profile instances of what Busse here calls 'anti-freedom' concerning books and schools and public libraries more generally, some things coming out of the attorney general's office and so on. But even in those cases, it's not at all clear that there's a widespread panic over this stuff. Certainly some activists are upset, but it's not clear that that trickles down very far into the electorate and is causing a big rethink on the part of Republican voters. And even to the extent it does, it's balanced by GOP messaging that cuts in the other direction over critical race theory in schools and overreach on trans issues and so forth.

And maybe just one more complicating point here, Sally; in Gianforte's two legislative sessions, it occurs to me I've actually been a bit surprised that Republicans didn't try to push further on some things that Busse might characterize as 'anti-freedom'. There was, for instance, considerable concern in some quarters that the Republicans would go after the state Constitution. In fact, there was an attempt to go after the right to privacy, but it was rather clumsy and fell flat, but there was no real serious effort to go after a clean, healthful environment, let alone the document as a whole.

Sally Mauk Holly, in the U.S. Senate race, Republican Congressman Matt Rosendale is yet to announce if he's going to run against Tim Sheehy in the Republican primary, but in a recent interview with far-right activist Steve Bannon, Rosendale accused Senators Steve Daines and Mitch McConnell of trying to bribe him not to run for the Senate. Here's what he said:

Rosendale They have selected their guy, and so they sent it through third party information: 'what is it going to take to keep you out of this race?'

Sally Mauk And Holly, he then went on to say that he will be the nominee for the U.S. Senate, even though he has not officially filed.

Holly Michels Yeah. Rosendale finally flat out and just came out and said it in his podcast — Steve Bannon's podcast. You know, after this went public on X, formerly known as Twitter, we wrote a story on it and a staffer walked back that statement saying Rosendale was just speaking in hypothetical. But I think this is still the clearest indication we've seen that we should expect Rosendale to join the Senate race sometime before the March filing deadline.

Like you said, Sally, in that interview with Bannon, Rosendale really did not go lightly on Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines. You know, Rosendale said Daines threw everything possible at him to get him to not join this race, saying he has billionaires lined up to spend against him. Daines heads up the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is the committee that has handpicked Republican Tim Sheehy to run for the Senate seat in the Republicans' attempt to defeat (Democratic U.S. Senator Jon) Tester. But clearly, like we hear in this interview, Rosendale is not deterred by any of this — and we've seen him in his official capacity as a congressman, making a lot of stops recently in the state, including pretty heavily in Bozeman, which is not in his eastern congressional district, which is probably an indication as well.

Sally Mauk You know, Rob, I don't think I've ever seen such public animosity between two Republican members of Montana's congressional delegation. This is really unprecedented.

Rob Saldin Yeah, that's absolutely right, Sally. And this has to be very frustrating to not only Steve Daines but also Mitch McConnell. They desperately want to win back the Senate majority and they worry — appropriately, that nominating extreme candidates like Rosendale could jeopardize that. There's been a lot of talk about this very dynamic playing out in the last few cycles, where you've had the GOP losing some winnable seats because Donald Trump has endorsed terrible candidates who rode his endorsement to the nomination, but then crashed and burned in the general election. That's all true, except to the extent, I think, that it's portrayed as some weird Trump-era deviation from the norm. In fact, this exact dynamic has been plaguing the party for a couple decades and has cost it seats in places that it really should have been winning long before Trump showed up. Daines and McConnell have a lot invested in trying to avoid that from happening this cycle.

To me, Sally, it's another moment that just reveals how weak the parties are as institutions. You know, back in the old smoke-filled room days, McConnell and Daines, they would have gotten their way. But beginning in the early 1970s, we had these series of reforms that were undertaken, and they had the effect of -for better or worse- shifting most of the power away from party leaders and placing it in the hands of primary voters. Rosendale is right in that respect. He doesn't have to cower in fear just because Daines and McConnell don't like him. The primary voters are the ones who are going to determine the nominee, not the old bosses in Washington. At this point - I totally agree with Holly — I don't see how Rosendale can pull the plug on this thing. It would be, I think, humiliating, in fact, to throw in the towel at this point after the conversation with Steve Bannon.

Sally Mauk Well, he's hardly cowering because Rosendale, Holly, is campaigning this week in Montana with notorious Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz. They're making several stops.

Holly Michels Yeah. They've got an event in Bozeman which is pretty critical territory for this Senate race. There's also one in Helena and then one in Joliet. And I think, you know, Rob was just saying where Rosendale falls in Congress, you know, with Matt Gaetz there, they were pretty critical in ousting former speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. This is probably showing that Rosendale really isn't backing down from his far-right persona and embracing that as he's considering entering this primary.

Sally Mauk Meanwhile, Rob, the incumbent Senator Jon Tester, is running frequent TV ads like this one:

Tester Ad: "I love teaching Hunter education and passing on Montana's outdoor heritage to the next generation. When I heard the Biden administration was trying to block funding for gun safety and Hunter education classes, I knew Jon Tester would do what he always does — give 'em hell. Jon got his Republican colleagues on board to stop Biden's policy and defend our Second Amendment rights. Montanans know Jon always defends our way of life from anyone, no matter what. I'm Jon Tester and I approve this message."

Sally Mauk I think this ad, Rob, is less about hunter education and more about how Senator Tester is standing up to President Biden.

Rob Saldin Yeah. Look, I mean, Democrats in places like Montana and for that matter, Republicans in blue areas — they need to find ways to distinguish themselves from the National Party because if all this election comes down to as an effective referendum on which political party Montanans prefer, the Republican is going to win and it's not going to be close. So for Tester, guns is a great issue to lean into. It's an issue that a lot of people care about. But beyond that, it's as much of a cultural signal as it is about the gun issue per se.

And of course, it runs directly counter to the broader perception that people with good reason have about the Democratic Party. There's a direct critique, as you noted, of the Biden administration, there's an appeal to the Montana way of life and so on. Well, all of this serves to communicate a key Tester theme that he really needs to remind voters of, that he isn't just another zombie Democrat off Chuck Schumer's assembly line who will do whatever Joe Biden tells him to do. One other thing I notice here, Sally, is that all of this is wrapped up in hunter safety. Now, progressives are just never going to love a pro Second Amendment ad like this from Tester, and of course, that's not the audience he's trying to appeal to here, but the focus of this ad, again, it's on gun safety, hunter training. Well, this is at least somewhat less objectionable to the Left as well.

Sally Mauk Well, lastly, Holly and Rob, former Governor Steve Bullock, who briefly ran for president four years ago, is currentlyrole playing a president in a documentary film that premiered this week at the Sundance Film Festival. What's that film about? Holly.

Holly Michels It's called 'War Game', and it's a documentary about a simulation put on by a group called Vet Voice Freedom that features Bullock as a fictional president leading a group of lawmakers and military leaders - their response to a fictionalized version of January 6th, where a group that sounds a lot like the Oath Keepers attempts to take the U.S. Capitol and other state capitals around the country.

Sally Mauk Rob, the premise of this film doesn't seem all that farfetched, that there might be a civil war coming out of a presidential election year.

Rob Saldin Yeah, not exactly a feel-good movie, doesn't sound like Sally. You know, it sure looks like we're in for quite a year, and it's well to be thinking about various scenarios that could take place. Hopefully it doesn't come to what's portrayed in the movie, but after January 6th, they'd be foolish to not prepare for the worst.

Sally Mauk Well, it's interesting that Governor Bullock is featured in this film too. It's been another interesting week of politics. Rob and Holly. Thank you so much. We'll get back to it next week.

Holly Michels Thanks so much, Sally.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.