Vice President Vance rallies Montanans for Aaron Flint. Flint and Sam Forstag both appeal to Montana voters' populist streak – while targeting different villains. And all the candidates make their final pitches as election day approaches.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, Vice President JD Vance held a rally in Belgrade to boost Montana's Republican congressional candidates, especially western district House candidate Aaron Flint. It wasn't a very large venue, but the crowd was enthusiastic.
Seaborn Larson Right, and Vance and President Donald Trump two weeks ago were both here largely for the same reason; driving turnout, flexing Trump's ability to bring Conservative voters out to the polls. Republican Aaron Flint, of course, is in a very close race with Democrat Sam Forstag for Montana's western congressional district. Vance tried to lay some common ground between the audience and his own rural upbringing. He and Trump both talked at length about how the country would be doomed if Democrats ever gained ground again in Washington D.C.
But in other ways, this event had a really different dynamic to it than the Trump rally. Tim Sheehy, the U.S. Senator who beat Democrat Jon Tester last cycle, he spoke at the rally, a pretty rare appearance for Montana's freshman senator. He gave one of the most zealous defenses of Trump's war in Iran that I've heard this year. Sen. Steve Daines was also there. That was his first time appearing with Alme since tagging out in the last minute before that filing deadline back in March. There were times during Daines' speech that felt a little bit like a farewell moment, telling the crowd that it had been a joy to serve them for the last 14 years. But like you said, Sally, Trump's rally with 5,000 or so people felt like a rock concert, and this felt much more like a pep rally.
Sally Mauk Rob, the Vice President talked a lot about what he called individual sovereignty, and here's part of what he said.
Vice President JD Vance "We have ended the tyranny of DEI and racial discrimination in jobs and in universities. Because I happen to believe that real sovereignty starts with the individual. And no person can be truly free when their government or their employer cares more about so-called white privilege than about promoting the American dream for everybody, regardless of skin color."
Sally Mauk Rob, culture wars never die.
Rob Saldin No, but they don't always have the same resonance. This is a message, Sally, that's worked well for Republicans for some time now, and Flint and his supporters are trying to get some juice out of it here again. But sometimes success, or the perception of success, has a way of reducing the salience of an issue. Two years into Trump 2.0, it may be difficult for Republicans to capitalize on issues like DEI in the manner that they have before. And that would be not so much because views have changed, but because aspects of DEI, as Vance notes there in his remarks, have changed in our institutions and in the broader culture. There has been some rollback in the last couple of years. At the same time, you have under this new administration, the potential for concerns to shift about going too far in the other direction. And of course, this is a dynamic that can play out in the opposite direction when Democrats are in control. So, these are issues that people still care about, but there's a lot of evidence to suggest that other issues are resonating more right now, most notably the economy and affordability. But also, some entirely new issues like AI data centers. So, this parade of Flint supporters traipsing through Montana, it has almost something of a retro feel to it, a kind of nostalgic greatest hits tour. Of course, there's still an audience for that. And it's also not to say that DEI and related issues might not return as a front burner issue in the future. But there's a lot to suggest that it just doesn't quite pack the punch that it did back during the Biden years and the heyday of Black Lives Matter.
Sally Mauk Speaking of AI, Seaborn, Aaron Flint has this new ad out using characters generated by artificial intelligence.
Flint Ad "Sam Forstag has lobbied passionately for trans rights. Thank you, Sam, for lobbying to help me transition my gender in high school without my parents' consent. Thank you, Sam, for fighting to let me perform in school libraries without parents' permission. Thank you, Sam, for letting me dominate high school girl sports. These personas are AI, but Sam Forstag's record is 100% real."
Sally Mauk This ad, Seaborn, admits upfront to using AI to create these fake characters, but it's still kind of creepy, I’ve got to say.
Seaborn Larson Right, this ad definitely makes it feel like we're in some new territory. This video went out a week before election day, and it really hammers the gender politics that Republicans have been beating Democrats on for years now. It also has the added bit of framing Forstag's lobbying work within these policies. But absolutely the most attention-grabbing part of this is how seamless the AI-generated video is compared to ads featuring real people. The New York Times reported last week $137 million is being spent across the country on ads with varying degrees of AI use. Voters everywhere right now are seeing these really highly produced ads. Researchers at the Wesleyan Media Project told the Times that this has been mostly a one-sided arms race for the GOP. Democrats are often more critical of the AI industry, and it would risk their candidate's reputation to use a tool that they're campaigning against. Forstag certainly fits this line of messaging. He's called for some of the most rigid regulations on AI and describes artificial intelligence as sort of like society's welcome mat to the sci-fi dystopian future. At the very least, it's given us this Flint ad, but like you said, Sally, there's a disclaimer at the bottom of that ad through most of the video and I'll read from it quickly: "This video has been significantly edited by artificial intelligence and depicts speech or conduct that falsely appears to be authentic or truthful." That's a pretty brutal note to put on a campaign ad.
Sally Mauk I think "brutal" is the right word.
The End Citizens United PAC also has a new ad attacking Aaron Flint, and here's that ad:
Forstag Ad "Rising prices keep making it harder on Montanans, and Aaron Flint won't help. His campaign's gotten hundreds of thousands from out-of-state corporations and special interests who are driving up our electricity and housing costs. Flint stands with them, not us."
Sally Mauk This ad, Rob, is counting on economic issues mattering more to voters than the culture wars, something you mentioned earlier.
Rob Saldin Yeah, exactly, Sally. And it's got that classic populist pitch, right? This election is about the good working people versus the corrupt elites. Notably, though, Flint has his own version of this story. These two candidates and their supporters have really been duking it out on this populist turf, which is something we're quite familiar with in Montana. This is a state, after all, with a very, very strong populist streak. The big difference, of course, is how the two candidates present their populist pitch. Flint's version places cultural and social issues front and center. In his story, it's a coercive progressive left that controls most of our institutions and controls much of popular culture and uses those positions of power to oppress the masses with various authoritarian dictates on DEI and trans and immigration and so forth that are very much out of step with public opinion. And then by contrast, you have Forstag and his supporters who basically dismiss those matters as cynical distractions from what they see as the real issues, those being economics and affordability. And in this telling, the nefarious elite is the billionaire class and the corporations, which make off like bandits while the rest of us struggle to make ends meet. Both messages can and have been quite powerful in Montana, and while the particulars differ, they do, interestingly enough, share a common view that the decent people are being held down by this relatively small band of sinister forces.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, The Cook Political Report, and many other pollsters now rate the Flint /Forstag race a toss-up.
Seaborn Larson Yup. This race was always going to be seen as competitive, but since the start of September, this race went from 'likely to Republican' to 'leaning-Republican' to a toss-up, with poll after poll showing Flint and Forstag to be neck-and-neck in this race. Those toss-ups ratings have come from the Cook Political Report and from Fox News. The latest shift came on Tuesday from Sabato's Crystal Ball. That was one of 16 House races that the election forecaster shifted towards Democrats this week. In large part, that national shift is because gas prices, food prices, war in Iran. These issues have been front and center all year long, but they've proven to be really durable with voters. Montana's a big state and people have to drive a great deal, especially in rural parts where the Republican base is strongest. But there's also a real sense of momentum around the Forstag campaign. He finished September with the biggest fundraising haul of any candidate in the state. And I think his campaign probably walked away from those two debates feeling like they really delivered Forstag's message across a wide audience. And while these rallies from the president and vice president were intended to energize Republicans, the flip side of that is the appearance that Republicans are concerned about losing this one. Still, I think the people I talk to say Forstag remains the underdog in this race and if he does win next week, that would be an upset.
Sally Mauk With only a few days left to campaign, Rob, the candidates are making their final pitches, both in person and in the media. Independent Senate candidate Seth Bodnar keeps showing up on national outlets like CNN and podcasts like Heather Cox Richardson and Chuck Todd. And I guess he's assuming, Rob, that Montana voters will be swayed by that.
Rob Saldin Yeah, Sally, he's been doing a number of events around the state too, but all those national media hits do make you wonder at least a little bit if he's not thinking about what comes after the election, if he is not headed to the Senate.
One other thing here in the closing days that's caught my eye, Sally, has to do more with the voters than the candidates – especially Democratic voters. It strikes me here at the end how many Democrats seem to be spooked about a polling error. And after 2020 and 2024, that's understandable. But we can also make too much of that possibility and the assumption that for Democrats, it might blow up in their face. For one thing, polling misses can go in both directions. And in fact, in 2022, the last midterm, the polling slightly under-reported Democratic support. Now, at this point nationally, if Democrats don't take back control of the House on Tuesday, it will be a real surprise, and it would upend a lot of what we think we know about American elections. But Seaborn, to your point, I think the real question here is whether all these national forces are going to be enough to trickle all the way down to the 1st congressional district here in Montana. Two years ago, Ryan Zinke beat Monica Tranel by about 7.5 points. That's quite a bit of ground for Forstag to make up, but it's definitely not out of the question if this is a blue wave that many expect. Both of these candidates have run good, disciplined campaigns. They've very much stayed on message. And at this point here in the final stretch, there's just not a lot for them to do, but go out and reiterate their talking points and hope for the best.
Sally Mauk And at this point, Rob, it’s really which message resonates the most, right?
Rob Saldin Yes, I think so, Sally, and neither of these guys are in a position to mix that up here at the end, even if they thought it wasn't going to work.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, TV ads are almost nonstop now on local channels and I'm wondering if voters like me are starting to tune out those ads.
Seaborn Larson Right, they're really back-to-back whether you're watching TV or YouTube. I think voters may be tuning things out during the commercial breaks during football Sunday, but truth is the candidates can't afford to let any of that ground go unchallenged. If one candidate has an ad, they need to be in that same space responding to that ad. So, it's sort of the name of the game at this point.
Sally Mauk When we convene next week, guys, we'll know which polls were right and which were wrong. And we're out of time this week, but I'll talk to you soon. Rob and Seaborn, thanks.
Campaign Beat is Montana Public Radio's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
