Polls continue to show a tight race in Montana's western district House race, and a possible blowout in the Senate race. VIPs from the Trump administration continue to visit Montana to get the Republican base to show up. And the latest campaign ads hammer the candidates' closing arguments.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Rob, several recent polls show vastly different numbers in Montana's Senate race, with most showing Republican Kurt Alme leading independent Seth Bodnar by anywhere from eight to 15 points, and Democrat Alani Bankhead a distant third. But the Bodnar campaign has released an outlier poll showing him leading Alme by two points. What are we to make of that?
Rob Saldin Sally, you can look at the long list of Montana Senate polls on Nate Silver's site. And there is one that sticks out as the oddball, and it's this one released by the Bodnar campaign. Real Clear Politics, the other primary poll aggregator doesn't even include this poll on their list, presumably because they see it as unreliable. And in fact, the outfit that did this poll, Concord Public Opinion Partners does have close ties to the Democratic Party and progressive causes. So, I'm very skeptical, but nonetheless, Sally, it has arguably served its purpose for the Bodnar campaign. Campaigns can point to polls like this to try to whip up some enthusiasm and keep hope alive among the faithful. And that's exactly what they've done. And when you promote it hard, as they have, sometimes you even get some media outlets to bite, which just generates more positive feedback. And that also happened, at least a little. Newsweek, for one, ran a piece featuring this poll as evidence of warning signs for Republicans in deep red parts of the country. But, as a reliable gauge of where the race actually stands, I'd want to see other polling outfits showing some notable movement away from Alme and toward Bodnar before we reassess where things stand, and we just aren't seeing that.
Sally Mauk It's kind of a push poll, in a way, right?
Rob Saldin I think you could call it that, yeah.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, there's a lot of buzz this week about an interview Alani Bankhead did with Anna Rau of Montana PBS where Rau asked her if anyone offered her anything to drop out of the race, and here's how Bankhead responded.
Alani Bankhead "They offered to be – and I'm probably going to butcher this – but the DNC's head of female veteran candidates or something like that. And I was like, why would I go work for an organization that is actively working against me and stabbing me in the back? Like, no, I'm not going to do that."
Sally Mauk And that's a remarkable reveal, Seaborn.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, it's another bizarre twist in this really unconventional Senate race. Alani Bankhead claiming that someone offered her a job at the DNC is basically directly in the face of what Alani Bankhead was saying back in August. Listeners may remember back then there was a huge effort to push Bankhead out of the race, which would consolidate the anti-Republican vote behind Seth Bodnar, an independent. Bankhead's comments recently to Montana PBS reporter Anna Rau are bizarre because when that deadline came in August, Bankhead was saying no one from any political operation had even approached her directly about dropping out. A couple days before that Montana PBS show aired, Bankhead wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post claiming a sitting U.S. Senator had offered her a job to back out. Bankhead has done nothing to really clear the air about who it was or why she's changed her story. Her campaign told us, "It's just not that relevant," while the DNC has denied any such offer was made. This nominee has been something of a chaos agent for her own party this year, driving a huge wedge between those who want to support her and those who want to back Bodnar. That second group has claimed in the past that they don't really trust what she says, in part because she's not really connected with anybody in Democratic politics.
Sally Mauk Rob, how does a statement by Bankhead about the DNC impact voters, do you think? First, I guess if they believe her, and second, if they don't.
Rob Saldin Sally, I think regardless of whether you believe her or not, it doesn't reflect well on Bankhead to have said one thing and now be saying the opposite. But it also obviously just is not great for Bodnar either to have attention drawn back to this issue. Once again, the ship has clearly sailed. He'd much prefer to be making his closing pitch, not relitigating this. And to have Austin Knudsen, the attorney general, jump into the mix and suggest that perhaps laws might have been violated, that just further puts Bodnar on the defensive and having to insist that he and his campaign were not involved in anything approaching a quid pro quo and so forth. So, it's not how you want to close your campaign. Meanwhile, Sally, Kurt Alme just gets to continue to keep his head down and let this story eat up another few days.
Sally Mauk Turning to the close western district House race, Rob, House Speaker Mike Johnson was in Bozeman recently to stump for Republican Aaron Flint, and here's what he told the MTN News.
Speaker Mike Johnson "I do spend time in the districts that are rated as toss-up. This one should not be. We know the values of Montanans, but on paper it looks like it's a tight race. We've got to make sure that we leave nothing for chance. It's going to be a turnout election."
Sally Mauk And he's right about that, Rob. Turnout is going to be critical in this tight race.
Rob Saldin Yeah, it sounds like the speaker was listening to our show the last couple of weeks. But yeah, absolutely, he's right. For Republicans, especially, it's not about courting undecided voters at this point. It's about beating the bushes to make sure your people turn out in a cycle where Republican voters are showing a distinct lack of enthusiasm. But the thing is, an unenthusiastic vote for Flint counts just as much as a super-jazzed vote for Forstag. And Republicans think, as the Speaker says here, that this shouldn't be close if they can just get their people to show up like they do when Trump's on the ballot. Now, I do think Johnson overstates the GOP lean in this western district. It's not so obvious that it should obviously go to the Republican here. Remember, Tester pulled more votes out of that western district two years ago than Tim Sheehy did. And that was in a cycle with Trump on the ballot. So, it's not shocking that this is a very competitive race. But regardless, Republicans think this is all about mobilizing their base, not bending over backwards to try to romance the relatively few people who somehow remain on the fence. And that's why they're bringing in all the big guns, polarizing as they may be, from Trump himself to the Speaker of the House, to the latest, Vice President Vance, who we just learned at the end of this week will be making his way to Montana on Monday for an event in Belgrade.
Sally Mauk We'll see if all these VIPs make a difference in the voter turnout. Flint's opponent, Democrat Sam Forstag, has raised not only more money than Flint, Seaborn, but the most money of any of the Montana congressional candidates.
Seaborn Larson That's right. It was a bit more than $2 million in that latest fundraising period between July and the beginning of October, and that's well more than Aaron Flint's $1.1 million. If you zoom out through this entire election year, Forstag has raised about 3.9 million bucks. Flint does, however, have the upper hand going into the final weeks of this election. His campaign had about $1 million in the bank at the end of September, more than any other federal candidate, while Forstag's cash on hand is about $855,000. An interesting note here, in 2024, Democrat Monica Tranel, who was running against Ryan Zinke at the time, had raised $4.8 million through this point in her campaign last year. This year, Forstag started gaining real traction in the polls about a month ago. That was about the time that President Donald Trump's PAC began spending in this race to support Flint, putting down about $2 million for the Republican, and he's spent over $1 million more since then. That's not to mention the powerful support of multiple campaign stops from this White House. That's earned media that has to be incredibly valuable at this point in the race. However, the political headwinds are against the White House this year, and they're at Forstag's back. He's seen a good share of outside spending from major Democratic organizations both in his support and against Flint.
Sally Mauk Rob, the Washington Post did an article recently on Democratic efforts to project the 'manly man' in their candidates and Sam Forstag was featured prominently in that article.
Rob Saldin Yeah, that was an interesting piece by Anna Liss-Roy. She cites, Forstag is one example along with James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed and a couple others of Democratic candidates embracing masculinity and basically not being embarrassed about that. Undergirding the piece, I think, was the idea that the party has gone too far in indulging the sensibilities of its college-educated, socially progressive base. Particularly on issues of gender, and basically that this inclination has been off-putting to men, particularly working-class men who recognize that they seem to have become, intentionally or not, something of afterthoughts for Democrats. And this, the theory goes, is a big part of the explanation for why Republicans have managed to do so well with men in the Trump era. The piece is suggesting that we're seeing a return of traditional masculinity in many male Democratic candidates – Forstag again, a clear example of this – in combination with being anti-Trump and taking often quite progressive policy positions. So, it's suggesting that this is something of a new cocktail on how to present yourself as a Democrat across the country. And we're seeing an example of it here in Montana. For what it's worth, I'm not entirely sure that Democrats in Montana have veered so far away from traditional masculinity. But nonetheless, you do see it in the Forstag campaign, for sure.
Sally Mauk As if to illustrate the article's point, Forstag has a new ad out featuring him in a hard hat, wielding a Pulaski while digging a fire line:
Sam Forstag ad "This is a fire line. Dig it well, and the fire stops. As a smokejumper, I've dug plenty of these lines, but there's a fire in this country as bad as they come. It is greed burning out of control. Politicians like Aaron Flint pushing to sell off our public lands so that he and his corporate donors can profit. I'm Sam Forstag. I approve this message, because my line is simple: no corporate money, no stock trading, no corruption. The fire stops here."
Sally Mauk And the fire metaphor may be a cliche, Rob, but it's also effective.
Rob Saldin Yeah, and it sure looks like a closing pitch to me, and this is how you want to close out a campaign on your terms, reiterating your message, not desperately responding to something from your opponent. And both Forstag and Flint are in a position to do just that here in the sprint to the finish. This Forstag spot, it really is just reinforcing the core themes and the central elements of his personal story that have been there from the start. So this is a little more like a closing statement from a lawyer at the end of a trial. We aren't really getting anything new, we're just being reminded of how all these pieces fit together, and also getting a reminder about why we should care and actually take the time to fill out a ballot. And, of course, the visuals with all the smokejumper shots and so forth. That's also something we've seen from Forstag since day one, and it hits all those masculine points that we were just discussing in that WAPO article.
Sally Mauk Meanwhile, Seaborn, Flint is doing his best to portray Forstag as a lobbyist, which he was during the Legislature, and here's one of Flint's ads:
Aaron Flint ad "The military taught me the true meaning of service. I'm sick of watching corrupt politicians sell out Montanans. As your congressman, I'll fight to end the fraud, ban their insider stock trading, and stop the wasteful spending. Sam Forstag says he's a firefighter. In reality, he's a phony and a dishonest lobbyist for radical agendas. Forstag is a threat to public safety, your daughters, and your wallet. I'm Aaron Flint, and I approve this message because I'd be honored to have your vote."
Sally Mauk And two things can be true, Seaborn, Forstag was a lobbyist and a firefighter.
Seaborn Larson Right, and Flint's campaign has committed a lot of time to talking about that other half, his lobbying career. But in Montana, where we have a four-month legislative session once every two years, it's not so much full-time work. Forstag was also a firefighter and a smokejumper, which is also seasonal work. And while Flint is attacking the firefighter narrative in ads and on stage, Forstag has been getting an enormous amount of national news coverage that frames him squarely in his identity as a smokejumper. The Washington Post story Rob just discussed covered a lot of ground and described Forstag in intimate detail, but it mentioned not once that he was an advocate for left-leaning organizations as a lobbyist. So, beyond trying to chip away at that, I think Flint's campaign would also say that Forstag's lobbying sessions represent a record, a series of these policy stances that they want to hit him with. Forstag, meanwhile, hasn't backed down from his lobbying work when reporters ask him about it, but he doesn't lean into it either and pretty much ignored Flint's attempt to drag it into the two debates these candidates had recently.
Sally Mauk Forstag has certainly stayed on message, that's for sure. Guys, we're out of time. I'll talk to you next week. Thank you.
Campaign Beat is Montana Public Radio's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
