Recent polls show the Republican ahead in Montana's Senate race, and the Democrat and Republican in the western district House race in a virtual tie. Democratic Senate candidate Alani Bankhead tries to address concerns about her past ties to a Conservative Megachurch. New ads in the House race focus on health care and culture wars. And upcoming debates could tip the scales in the congressional contests.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Rob, a new poll sponsored by Nonstop Local News shows Republican Kurt Alme with a healthy double-digit lead in the Senate race, and independent Seth Bodnar a distant second, and Democrat Alani Bankhead in third place.
Rob Saldin That's right, Sally. There's a reason all these national forecasters see this race as a safe or likely Republican hold, and you see it in this latest poll. There is, of course, the big lead, and that's been, after all, relatively consistent in all the polling. We've never seen Bodnar, or Bankhead for that matter, winning or even within striking distance. Now, if you did magic and added the Bodnar and Bankhead numbers together, well, that would be a different story, but of course, that's not the way it worked out. Just one other thing that struck me there on the Senate side, Sally, and this should be reassuring to Alme also, is that if you just look at his support in isolation, he's looking fine here. That Montana Free Press poll from a couple of weeks ago showed him perhaps lagging a little bit in what you'd expect from a Montana Republican, and definitely weaker than Tim Sheehy was two years ago. Well, this poll has Alme at 45% and that's much more in line with what you'd expect a month out, and that's of course before you get into the matter of the divided opposition.
Sally Mauk The same poll, Rob, shows the western district House race in a virtual tie. Several different polls in the last few weeks, as you mentioned, Rob, have shown varying numbers in those races, but they have consistently shown Alme with that winnable margin and Forstag and Aaron Flint in a real battle.
Rob Saldin Exactly, Sally. And on that House side, we've been saying since the most recent redistricting where we went to the two districts that this western seat could and really should be competitive, especially if national conditions are favorable for Democrats. Well, we have got conditions that are extremely favorable for Democrats this year, and we've got a highly competitive race here in that western district. So much, Sally, has fallen into place for Forstag and he's going to need more of it here in the last month, and in fact, that's entirely plausible that that could happen. A lot of times in wave elections, movement at the end of a campaign doesn't come in the form of a kind of rebalancing back towards some natural equilibrium, but rather in the form of further erosion for the party that's struggling. And many indicators now suggest that may well be the situation we have this year. And if that's the case, Forstag clearly has a real shot to pull an upset here.
Aaron Flint, meanwhile, he's got to hope that Montana's long-term trend to the GOP, which has actually accelerated even since we got that second congressional district back, is this year going to be enough to pull him over the line in what's a really tough environment for the GOP.
Sally Mauk But of course, as you point out, Rob, there would still be an upset if Forstag was to win the seat.
Rob Saldin I think that's right, and you know, a couple cycles ago, I'm not sure we would have said that, but given the way Montana has gone, including that western district, this would definitely be an upset if Flint lost and Forstag won it for the Dems.
Sally Mauk In that western district House race, Seaborn, Democrat Sam Forstag has this new TV ad.
Forstag Ad (Narrator) "Aaron Flint shrugged": (Flint audio) "There's going to be some things like Medicaid expansion, etc that fall through the cracks for sure." (Ad narrator) While thousands of Montanans lost health care and Flint cheered as premiums tripled. The hard part for Aaron? (Flint audio) "It's so much harder taking a program away once people have gotten addicted to it." (Narrator) Addicted to health care? But Flint and his donors profited; tax cuts for corporations, campaign cash for Aaron, while we're left paying the bill." (Forstag tag) ‘I'm Sam Forstag, and I approve this message.'
Sally Mauk And this is a timely ad, Seaborn, with health care costs rising and new, more restrictive Medicaid eligibility rules going into effect just this month.
Seaborn Larson It's certainly an issue both candidates are talking about heading into the general election. Health care is near the top of the list of issues that voters want candidates to address, particularly rural voters. That's according to a recent poll from the Associated Press and the Kaiser Family Foundation, also known as KFF. What some have read into that poll is that health care costs in rural areas have overcome issues like immigration and the war in Iran. We all remember the Big Beautiful Bill from the Trump administration that imposed several changes to Medicaid last year. Montana was one of the earliest states to implement those changes, such as requirements that people 19 to 64 years old work or volunteer at least 80 hours a month. That's a big one that advocates worry is going to unnecessarily boot people from their health insurance, because in Montana, the state proved to be worse than most at handling the administrative process to redetermine if people are eligible for Medicaid. The forgiveness period for people to get into compliance with that requirement ended on Thursday, October 1st. So, people who are getting kicked off their plan are gonna find out here soon, just as ballots are hitting the mail.
Sally Mauk Well, a PAC supporting Forstag's opponent, Aaron Flint, also has a new ad out.
Flint Ad "Forstag, he wants to be our congressman. Just what we need, a lobbyist in Congress. Forstag supported taxpayer-funded sex changes for kids. Lobbied to allow boys to compete in girls' sports. Forstag even lobbied for drag shows for kids – yeah, kids. Lobbyist Forstag, our congressmen? Not in Montana. Not now, not ever. No Going Back PAC Inc is responsible for the content of this advertisement."
Sally Mauk This ad hits two things, Seaborn: Forstag's stint as a lobbyist at the Legislature, wearing a suit and tie and not a smokejumper suit; And the culture wars.
Seaborn Larson Right. Flint is certainly working hard to get that lobbyist image in front of Forstag's smokejumper routine. There's a lot of video of him testifying as a lobbyist at the state Legislature. I've been surprised at how little we've seen of that, given he was a lobbyist for multiple sessions. But as for gender politics, that's been a constant attack from the GOP for years now, and as Rob has said recently on this show, public polling is certainly on the Republican side. The majority of Americans are uncomfortable with transgender athletes competing in sports that don't align with their sex assigned at birth. The majority voters also support policies that prevent health care professionals from providing gender-affirming care to minors. That's according to the Pew Research Center. But the reality is that these things are rare, but it's a potent political message that Democrats are starting to maneuver a bit more deftly this year. Across the country, Democrats are beginning to counter that Republicans are more focused on transgender people than they are on pocketbook issues. Semafor had a really insightful piece this week in which pro-LGBT groups are now helping Democrats into this messaging because they realize gender politics is not winning with voters. Still, it remains one of the GOP's most frequent attacks.
Sally Mauk The PAC that supported this ad is called No Going Back, and this is a PAC that has ties to President Trump.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally. And it's been really active in Montana this last month. Montana Free Press reported this week that No Going Back has spent $811,000 in support of Flint in September alone.
Sally Mauk In the Senate race, Rob, my mailbox is being filled with PAC-sponsored flyers attacking Alani Bankhead and supporting Seth Bodnar. And many of them target Bankhead's past ties to a very Conservative church and publishing house with the not-so-subtle implication that she's conning voters and hiding her true beliefs.
Rob Saldin Right, Sally. It's quite odd to have so many questions of this nature about a major party candidate at the end of a U.S. Senate campaign, but we're left with a situation in which there is quite a long list of things in Bankhead's record that are uncommon for a prominent Democrat. Any single item taken on its own is perhaps explainable, maybe even more than that, humanizing or even endearing. For instance, some of the things she said have perhaps been taken out of context. The church certainly seems like a curious choice, but maybe there's a natural explanation. And on the book, for one of the other matters, publishing can be an opaque process. Authors don't always get to pick and choose which publishers take an interest in their work. In any event, Bankhead certainly isn't responsible for what other people wrote. But you package all this stuff together and it paints a picture that just isn't what we expect of a major Democratic candidate. And all of these are entirely legitimate things to raise in a campaign. And I at least am doubtful that Bankhead's response is going to satisfy a lot of Democrats who may well be okay with Bankhead's past, but at the very least expect a bit more in the way of explanation and a bit less attacking of the messenger.
Sally Mauk As you mentioned, Rob, Bankhead has tried to address these allegations both in her personal appearances and on social media, and here's part of a recent Facebook post.
Alani Bankhead "I'm a feed-the-poor Christian, not the Christian-nationalist Christian. Seth Bodnar's campaign is so desperate to get you to believe otherwise. I've seen the damage done in the name of the institutional church. Faith should never be used as a weapon and Christian nationalism has no place in our government or our community."
Sally Mauk That's a pretty clear-cut statement, Rob, but her past raises a legitimate question: why associate at all with a church that doesn't reflect your own beliefs and values?
Rob Saldin It does, Sally. It's just one of these things that, at the very least, requires a little bit more in the way of an explanation. And I can imagine a number of plausible reasons for that. Maybe a partner was going there. Maybe her views have changed. Maybe any number of things. But it's not going to be enough, I don't think, to simply say that the Bodnar campaign is desperate and out to get her.
Sally Mauk Her other problem is because she has so little money, her rebuttals are not getting nearly the exposure that the attacks on her are getting, Rob.
Rob Saldin Right. And this is obviously one of the big problems with her campaign in general. The Facebook videos certainly have a certain DIY charm to them, but they don't have anything like the kind of reach that you can get with paid advertising. But of course, to get paid advertising, you have to have campaign funds.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, there is a fourth candidate in this race, a Libertarian, Kyle Austin. Is he a wild card? I mean, he's polling very, very low numbers.
Seaborn Larson Kyle Austin is polling at 5%, according to that Montana Free Press poll we've referenced several times here. He's also running as a Libertarian against the Libertarian Party's own wishes. They had selected a different candidate during the primary that they preferred. Kyle Austin was a former Republican Congressional candidate for that eastern district and kind of drew the ire of the party when he came out of that primary. Kyle Austin told our team last week that he believes Montanans will pick an underdog, that that narrative is going to win the day, but I think it's fair to say that he's much more in the position of a spoiler than a legitimate candidate at this point.
Sally Mauk Lastly, there are a series of debates this month that will either be broadcast or streamed. What do you think the candidates need to do in these debates, both the frontrunners and the underdogs? Rob?
Rob Saldin I'll say a word about the House side. You know, I think Aaron Flint needs to probably continue going after Forstag as a kind of lefty extremist on culture and just hope that message starts to gain some traction at some point. Flint really doesn't have any other play here, I don't think, given the broader political environment he's operating in, in which a lot of what he thought were going to be his strengths: his MAGA orthodoxy, his devotion to Trump. These things are suddenly out of step with public opinion. Forstag, meanwhile, needs to make sure Flint doesn't define him as a far-left DSA candidate. Forstag has managed, surprisingly, I think, to largely avoid the DSA baggage to this point. Despite some of those early endorsements he had and the event with AOC and so forth, he's gotten all the upside of those connections without much of the downside, he needs to continue threading that needle.
Seaborn Larson Certainly I think conventional wisdom would say that Kurt Alme needs to play it cool and not get down in the mud with the other candidates who are behind him. That's the job of Seth Bodnar and Alani Bankhead to sort of bring him down to maybe show some weaknesses in his campaign. As for Flint and Forstag, they're both really great communicators - different styles, but they both have a lot of dexterity on the issues. But they're both new candidates and what voters haven't gotten to see, and what may be the difference for some people in the "middle," is how both of them respond to being attacked in person. How those candidates handle that moment could really turn voters off or drive up their numbers the next day. I'm really curious to see how those debates go.
Sally Mauk We'll look forward to these debates and we're out of time this week. Rob and Seaborn, thank you. Have a great weekend.
Campaign Beat is Montana Public Radio's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
