Montana Democrats continue to bicker over which candidate to support in the U.S. Senate race. New campaign ads highlight the Iran war, taxes and women. And upcoming debates could be pivotal in that Senate race.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk It's been a pretty active summer politically, so let's do some catch-up, starting with the Montana Senate race. There are five candidates, with three of them making a lot of headlines: Democrat Alani Bankhead, Independent Seth Bodnar, and Republican Kurt Alme. And much of the political chatter, Seaborn, continues to be over Democratic infighting between Bankhead and Bodnar supporters. Remind us why there's such bad blood there.
Seaborn Larson We don't usually see this kind of bare-knuckle politics between the June primary election and Labor Day when the general election really kicks off. I have no idea when the last time the Montana Democratic Party had such a vicious internal fight. The element that's caused a lot of chaos in the Senate race is Bodnar's campaign as an independent. A mysterious pop-up PAC that pushed Democratic newcomer Alani Bankhead over the finish line in June, that group turned out to be a big supporter of independent candidates this cycle, including Bodnar, as well as some Democrats. Lots of people speculated that Bankhead was a plant who would, after the primary, step aside and give Bodnar a better position against Alme, but into early August, Bankhead stuck to her guns, saying she was not going to withdraw. At the same time, Democrats in Alaska, Idaho, and South Dakota all backed out to support independents in those races in order to consolidate the anti-Republican vote. But in Montana, there was a substantial Democratic effort to coax Bankhead to the sidelines by an August deadline to bow out. We're talking about yard signs, mass texts, spreadsheets identifying her family members shared on social media. That caused a major rift inside the party. A lot of people with institutional credibility in Democratic politics here are backing Bodnar from recent federal office holders to former Democratic Party officials. Since Bankhead remained in the race, the side that supported her seems to have retained the upper hand within the party. Emily Marburger, Democrats' new executive director, held a press conference scolding the 'bullies' in the party. Who went after Bankhead. Shannon O'Brien, the party's chair, who at least is accused of favoring Bodnar, was nowhere to be seen at that event.
Sally Mauk Also, Seaborn, there are people who still believe that Bankhead is a Republican plant, but we have no evidence of that.
Seaborn Larson Certainly. It's been interesting for me to hear so many people talk about Bankhead potentially being a Republican plant when earlier this year, so many of those same people thought Bankhead might be a potential plant for the Bodnar campaign. We don't have evidence that either of those is true.
Sally Mauk Meanwhile, Rob, many voters from both parties think Seth Bodnar is gaslighting them for claiming to be an independent when most of his support and money is from the Democratic political establishment.
Rob Saldin Right, Sally. And it's not an unreasonable thought. His positions on the issues are a bit eclectic and unconventional, but not really anything that would be a deal breaker for a Democrat running statewide in Montana. And Bodnar's got all the big-name Democrats in the state behind him. He's also staffed by a lot of Democrats. And while Bodnar does have some Republicans supporting him, the most notable ones are all very clearly Never-Trumpers who haven't had a place in the GOP for many years now and who have been endorsing Democrats for several cycles. Moreover, as you mentioned, Seaborn, Bodnar's independent run looks like it's straight out of this playbook that we've seen Democrats and independents using in other states where the party brand is toxic. The only real difference here is that the gambit didn't work insofar as the official Democratic candidate didn't play along here in Montana. But it all really does complicate Bodnar's path a lot, Sally. The good news for him is that there's no doubt that he's established himself as the strongest alternative to Alme. Bankhead's just not running a credible campaign. Yet, with her staying in, Bodnar's ability to stake out positions in the center and on the right is more constrained than he'd like because he needs to win the vast majority of Democratic votes and he can't take them for granted because there is that Bankhead option on the ballot. So Bodnar seems to be left in a position of largely having to rail against the two-party system and try to find some issues where he can split off some Republican votes without alienating any Democrats.
Sally Mauk There is one prominent Democrat who has stuck with Bankhead, and that's former Governor Brian Schweitzer.
Rob Saldin You're right.
Sally Mauk The Republican candidate, Kurt Alme, Seaborn, is happily biding his time while Democrats bicker, but Americans for Prosperity does have this ad out supporting Alme.
Americans for Prosperity Ad "Kurt Alme, born and raised in Montana by two Great Falls teachers. Alme learned you don't spend what you don't earn. His Montana values are homegrown. As our senator, Kurt Alme will slash wasteful spending, cut taxes, and eliminate job-killing regulations so hard-working families and small businesses can thrive again. Washington's dysfunction has left too many Montanans behind. Kurt Alme will put our values before party politics and lower our cost of living. Kurt Alme for Senate."
Sally Mauk That's a pretty good ad hitting the traditional Republican themes like cutting taxes.
Seaborn Larson Definitely. Another thing I think about when I hear this ad is right at the very beginning, "Born and raised in Montana". Most big-name Republicans in Montana haven't been able to claim that term in what feels like a generation. We're talking about Senator Tim Sheehy, Governor Greg Gianforte, Congressman Matt Rosendale. All of them had to carry the albatross of not being born in Montana, Alme isn't as flashy as those candidates, but he opens a lot of events talking about being raised here and I hear more that in the ad.
Sally Mauk The ad does mention, "Washington's dysfunction," which some might find odd given Alme's Republican Party, Seaborn, is the party in charge.
Seaborn Larson They certainly are, Sally, but perhaps Alme doesn't have to hitch his wagon to Trump this cycle because he feels his campaign is effectively in control here. A poll published in Semaphore this week that was commissioned by Alme's campaign shows Bodnar and Bankhead are splitting the vote so severely that Alme had the support of 44% of respondents, Bodnar had 22%, and Bankhead was at 19%.
Sally Mauk I don't expect we're going to see President Trump campaign for him here. What do you think?
Seaborn Larson A political reporter in Montana can hope, Sally.
Sally Mauk Rob, Seth Bodnar also has this ad on the air:
Bodnar Ad "Small potatoes. McDonald's sells small potatoes. But today, the president called the war in Iran, 'Small potatoes’ (Reporter) 'Can you explain to the American people if this is not a war? What exactly is it?' (President Trump) 'Well, I'll tell you what, a lot of people don't call it a war. I call it military conflict because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big thing. (Seth Bodnar) I'll tell you who it ain't small potatoes for - the 18 families that lost a loved one there. I'll tell you who it ain’t small potatoes for - the more than 800 casualties that we've had there. I've led men into harm's way. I've lost friends to combat. War is not small potatoes."
Sally Mauk Rob, Bodnar is taking on Trump directly in this ad. Is that a smart strategy?
Rob Saldin I think it is insofar as the Iran issue is concerned. It's a great example of what we mentioned earlier in terms of threading that needle where Bodnar can potentially attract some Republican votes without alienating any Democrats. For some Republicans, Iran represents a real betrayal of Trump's promises regarding foreign wars and putting America first. It's been a disaster. We're worse off than we were before the war, there's no easy way out, and we're all paying the price at the gas pump and elsewhere. This isn't what a lot of Republicans thought they were signing up for. And yet, at the same time, Bodnar's not going to lose any Democrats with that message.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, Alani Bankhead doesn't have the money Alme and Bodnar have for ads, but I did find this one:
Bankhead Ad "Representing the state should mean using power to uplift Montanans. Montana deserves a senator who trusts women. Montana's women deserve a voice in Washington and the right to make their own medical decisions. My 20-year military career was about protecting people and delivering accountability. I'm a veteran, ready to serve again. I'm Alani Bankhead and I'm running for U.S. Senate."
Sally Mauk This ad, Seaborn, has a not-so-subtle dig at Bodnar when she says, "Montanans deserve a senator who trusts women."
Seaborn Larson Right. Opening an ad with a message for women could definitely be seen as a brief but direct shot at Bodnar, who since the beginning of his campaign has had to answer for this sex discrimination lawsuit against the University of Montana. Bodnar was never named as a defendant in that lawsuit, but he was president when the university settled for $350,000. Bankhead has spent considerable time since the primary hitting Bodnar with that lawsuit. The other thing I noticed in this ad, Sally, is she's not attacking Republicans or Trump despite his polling numbers in a national slump. She talks about access to reproductive care and that's kind of a safe message in a Republican state like Montana, which just voted to inscribe abortion access into the state Constitution. The other items, accountability, military service, law enforcement, these are atypical of Democrats going after things like affordability and an out-of-control Trump White House.
Sally Mauk Where do you think, guys, this race stands right now? Bodnar has by far the most financial support, but so did former Senator Jon Tester in the last election and of course, he lost. What do you guys think - Rob?
Rob Saldin It's not all about the money. If you don't have an R next to your name, this was just always going to be a big uphill climb, and it still is because Montana has shifted so far in the Republican direction. But, that said, if you're not a GOP candidate, you really could not possibly ask for a better setup. First, Daines, who was very well positioned, drops out and has this ugly passing of the baton to Alme. But then, more broadly and perhaps more importantly, the electoral environment is just very tough for Republicans, from the midterm dynamics for the president's party to the president's approval rating, to public perceptions of the economy, to changes in the reliability of the party bases to turn out in a non-presidential year and so forth. It's just all rough waters for the GOP. But here's the thing, Sally, Democrats and independents in this Senate race, they failed in the most important task - to identify a single credible opponent who would be in a position to take advantage of this political perfect storm. So at this point, if there's any hope for someone not named Kurt Alme, there's going to have to be a major consolidation of the non-Republican vote behind one of those candidates.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, I agree. The race right now feels like it's Alme's to lose. Bodnar's financial backing is vast and he's committed some serious windshield time across the state, but something in this race will have to shift if he's going to close the gap on Alme.
Sally Mauk There are a series of debates coming up. There was one last night in Glendive, Bankhead and Bodnar were there, Alme was not. I think those debates could be pivotal, Rob, but it depends, I guess, on whether all the key candidates participate, maybe.
Rob Saldin Yeah, Sally, you know, so much of politics is locked in these days. We just don't see the kind of big swings that were routine a few decades ago. And right now, that clearly favors Alme's steady-as-she-goes approach. Bodnar is going to need something to shake things up to firmly consolidate the non-Republican vote behind him and tie Alme to these broader national dynamics that are a real drag on Republicans across the country in this electoral cycle. And I think you're right. Debates may offer the single best opportunity to move the needle here in the last couple months of the campaign.
Sally Mauk What do you guys think the impact of all the attention the Senate race is getting, what is the impact on the two House races and the candidates there who are vying for attention? Seaborn?
Seaborn Larson Well, I know there are some Democrats who believe Bankhead's decision to remain in the race may have turned off big national donors who may have come to Montana if that Senate race was in play. Forstag's seat is competitive, but it's less critical to Democratic donors, so he would have been downstream of that faucet.
Sally Mauk Forstag, of course, is running in the Western District House race.
Seaborn Larson Exactly.
Rob Saldin I think it's a real help to Forstag. Everything has fallen just right for him, including the Senate race insofar as Democrats and independents are sensing that that Senate race may be out of reach given the multiple candidate issue. But the first district is still very much in play and may be the only game in town. That district really should be competitive in a year like this where the conditions are just right, Democrats should have a shot and the conditions are just not going to get any better than they are this cycle.
Sally Mauk Forstag is, of course, running against Republican Aaron Flint in that race. Guys, we're out of time this week. Next week, we'll get into the two U.S. House races for sure. And meanwhile, it's great to see you again, and I'll see you next week. Thanks.
Seaborn Larson It's great to be back, Sally.
Rob Saldin Thanks, Sally!
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
