A rising Democratic star and possible presidential candidate gets a warm reception in Montana. Republican "dark money" groups take a keen interest in Montana's Democratic Senate primary, and those Senate candidates make their case at a forum in Missoula.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, former Secretary of Transportation and rising Democratic Party star Pete Buttigieg got a very warm reception in Butte recently and he was there to support Initiative 194, also known as the Montana Plan, and he picked Butte for a reason.
Seaborn Larson Right, Sally. The Copper Kings' history is a good foil here in Butte – corporations running the show in politics. You kind of get that vibe when it's election season anymore. It's a ballot initiative known as 194, but they call it the Montana Plan. It would block corporate spending in Montana elections by setting definitions in state law for "artificial persons," those being corporations here, and say explicitly that artificial persons are not allowed to contribute anything of value to campaigns. So the ballot initiative needs about 30,000 signatures. The campaign hasn't talked publicly about a hard number but has said they're a bit over the halfway mark before the deadline in June.
Sally Mauk Critics of the Montana Plan say it doesn't really overturn Citizens United and it will surely face a court challenge if it is passed. Buttigieg argues it's still worth it:
"I think when you see a chance for a big swing, you got to take it. There is no one individual law, policy, idea or politician who's going to fix everything. But this is one of the most powerful things that I see happening in our time when it comes to dealing with Citizens United. And, you know, for too long, I think we've treated Citizens United like it's just something that we can't do anything about it. Like we're just stuck living with huge amounts, escalating amounts, of corporate money and dark money forever. And this is a chance to change that."
Sally Mauk And he's basically saying you got to start somewhere, Seaborn.
Seaborn Larson Yeah. I think there's also wide support across partisan lines for tamping down the influence of money in politics, and that Buttigieg is perhaps trying to marshal some of that energy. Certainly, this will face some sort of legal challenge under Citizens United. That decision in 2010 said corporations have the right of free speech and can spend money freely in elections. There's also talk about fighting dark money in this ballot initiative. Remember, we're talking about corporations contributing to elections to support or oppose candidates or campaigns. The core characteristic of dark money groups is that they're organizations that don't have to report who their donors are. So how would we know if Johnson & Johnson or Lockheed Martin were donating to some of these groups? But still, what Buttigieg is saying here is that a big swing here and a clever approach there, this is how the needle eventually gets moved on this stuff.
Sally Mauk Rob, Pete Buttigieg is thought to be a possible presidential candidate in 2028, and he wouldn't answer that question directly in a press gaggle, but he has run unsuccessfully for president before in 2020, and doesn't think being gay would be a hindrance in 2028:
"My experience running for president, winning the Iowa caucuses with a lot of people crossing over who had been Republicans or independents in order to participate, tells me the real thing that voters care about isn't you as a candidate. It's what you're going to do to make them better off. And that's what I'd like all of our politics to revolve around right now, which is everyday life."
Sally Mauk I'm not so sure, Rob, that voters don't look at the candidates as much as their policies.
Rob Saldin Well, they do, of course, Sally. And as you note, I mean, he's clearly got the ambition. He's done this once before. In the years since, he has clearly established himself as one of the sharpest and most articulate figures in the party. We saw the kind of enthusiasm he can generate in Butte. As for the matter of his sexual orientation, Sally, I tend to agree with Mayor Pete that it's just not a significant liability at this point. I'm reminded of Barack Obama's candidacy in 2008. That's obviously not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's similar in that there were real doubts about whether the country was quote unquote 'ready' for a president with a non-traditional identity. Well, at least in that case, it clearly was. For Mayor Pete's aspirations, the thing that really stands out here to me, particularly in a week that saw the passing of former Congressman Barney Frank, is the genuinely remarkable shift we've seen on this issue in a relatively short amount of time, so I'm not at all convinced that that's going to be the thing that holds Mayor Pete back.
Sally Mauk Switching to Montana's Senate race, Seaborn, there is a lot of dark money being spent on candidates running in the Democratic primary and they're not all Democratic PACs. Here's a new ad supporting Alani Bankhead:
Alani Bankhead ad "Democrat Reilly Neill opposes Trump's tough-on-immigration policies. And Neill supports impeaching Trump. Reilly Neill is too liberal for Montana. Alani Bankhead will bring Republicans and Democrats together. A former law enforcement officer, Bankhead agrees with Trump. Illegal immigration is wrong. Instead of fighting Trump, Bankhead will work with Trump to secure the border. Alani Bankhead, conservative Democrat for Montana. More Jobs, Less Government is responsible for the content of this advertising."
Sally Mauk Seaborn, More Jobs Less, Government is a Republican PAC and why are they running an ad supporting a Democratic candidate?
Seaborn Larson I think there's a little reverse psychology going on here. More Jobs, Less Government has spent a ton of money on Republicans in Montana's Senate races in recent years, and right now it's spending on Democrats. It's been fairly easy for this Republican PAC to control the narrative over this Democratic primary. These are not particularly strong candidates. There's virtually no enthusiasm for this race from the party, and they don't have much money themselves. So, Republicans have all the room to define these Democrats.
Republicans want Reilly Neill to make it through this primary because they believe she'd effectively neutralize Seth Bodnar. He's an independent candidate with a strong campaign, but really slim chances of winning if a Democrat remains on the ticket. Alani Bankhead meanwhile is pretty new to the state. She was totally unknown before she announced her campaign earlier this year. That's helped these rumors fester that Bankhead, if elected in this primary, would back out and support Bodnar. I'll note here that she's totally denied those rumors. Still, by telling Democratic voters that Alani Bankhead is pro-Trump, you're basically driving those votes to Reilly Neill.
More Jobs, Less Government has spent almost $800,000 on Reilly Neill this primary on mailers saying she'd impeach Trump, support universal health care, and raise taxes on the wealthy. These are Democratic talking points that get people elected in Democratic primaries.
Another PAC, meanwhile, has also entered the fray trying to get support for Bankhead. That's Progressive Vet PAC who we talked about last week, which formed just less than a month ago, and last week that number spent on Bankhead was a little over $500,000. As of this week, we're up to $961,000 supporting Bankhead from Progressive Vet PAC. Bankhead herself, going into the last weeks of this primary, has $13,000 cash on hand for her own campaign. The sudden airtime Bankhead has been getting is sometimes disorienting here. Progressive Vet PAC postcards sent out this week said Bankhead will fight the Trump agenda. I got that mailer the same day I saw that video we just heard from More Jobs, Less Government claiming that she will work for Trump.
Sally Mauk Rob, the Senate Democratic candidates held a forum in Missoula this week, sponsored by Indivisible Missoula, where Bankhead outlined why she's running:
"Why I'm running is because Montana, unlike any other place I've been in the world, has this unique set of values that isn't found anywhere else, right? We've already talked a lot about common sense. We've talked about family, freedom, community, hard work. If you're born and raised here, these are normal to you. These don't feel special, but I'm telling you, they are special. And it is this mixture of values that is so desperately needed in DC."
Sally Mauk My family and friends in Kansas, Rob, might take issue with Bankhead that values like common sense and hard work are unique to Montana. A place, by the way, where she's only lived for about four years.
Rob Saldin Yes, Sally. You don't necessarily have to be a fifth generation Montanan or whatever it is to pick up on certain cultural markers. In fact, sometimes it even helps to have a fresh set of eyes. But of course, it's also the case that this vague rhetoric of Montana values is kind of an evergreen talking point for politicians. Politically speaking, it very much overlaps with the idea that Montana is a unique space, politically, relative to the rest of the country. And there has been some truth to that historically. And yet, over the last decade or so, you do have to wonder whether that still holds up. Montana politics has come to be much less of an anomaly and much more in line with national politics. Especially when Democrats trot this bit out, you do have to wonder whether it's an earnest assessment of what's going on out there or more of a nostalgic reflection on the past.
Sally Mauk Candidate Reilly Neill took the opportunity at this forum to argue why she thinks independent Seth Bodnar's candidacy is a bad idea:
"If you folks over here in the West don't understand what happens when an independent gets in and tells everybody not to vote for Democrats, every down-ballot race suffers."
Sally Mauk Does she have a point, Rob?
Rob Saldin I'm not sure Bodnar would be telling people to never vote for Democrats, but she's articulating a legitimate concern for Democrats who are deeply committed to the party as an institution. They do have reason to worry that pressure to support an independent Senate candidate might carry implications for the long-term health of their party and trying to regain majorities in the Legislature and things like that. They want to have a U.S. Senator who will support those kinds of party-building efforts, the way Max Baucus did for decades, and Jon Tester did more recently. They correctly see that that just wouldn't be Seth Bodnar's role.
That said, the counterargument, of course, is that you can't just ignore basic political gravity. The tough reality for Montana Democrats is that if Jon Tester, a popular three-term incumbent, couldn't defeat a compromised challenger, well, no one is. A lot of that can be traced directly back to the Democratic Party's brand. It has become toxic here in a way that it's been in Idaho for 30 years and the Dakotas for the last decade plus. And that's a long-term problem. It doesn't have an easy fix. And you can say it's sad. It may even be unfair in many respects, but that's the situation. Under those conditions the best chance you've got, quite possibly the only chance you got, is to go with an independent candidate who, at the end of the day, for most Democrats, is going to be far preferable to the Republican alternative and who doesn't have to carry that toxic baggage of the Democratic Party label, and has the freedom to say things and take positions that, yes, might occasionally provoke scandalized gasps among the progressive faithful, but that are, at end of day, more in line with where most Montana voters actually are. That's the challenge facing Democrats in this cycle.
Sally Mauk Lastly Seaborn, with these high-profile congressional races, other races on the ballot don't get as much voter attention. I'm thinking, for example, of the state Supreme Court race between Dan Wilson and Amy Eddy. It's a nonpartisan race, supposedly.
Seaborn Larson Right. We don't talk much about this race right now, in part because it's primary season. Since there are only two of them on the ballot, both candidates are going to be moving on to the general election. But as you note, Sally, these Supreme Court races basically become proxies for partisan politics in Montana. That's not always the candidate's fault. Republicans who control the Legislature and the executive branch have been really fixated on seeing their preferred candidates elected in these races, which as you note, are nonpartisan. Democrats are more distant with their support but will generally mobilize against the Republicans' favorite candidate.
This year, the GOP is backing Dan Wilson. He's a district court judge in Flathead County. He's leaned a little further into the Republican brand this year than he did for his bid in 2024, which he lost to Katherine Bidegaray. Amy Eddy, also a district judge from Flathead County is running and she said she won't participate in any of the politics that overhang these races, but that's a tough spot to be in. If Republicans spend time and energy propping up one campaign, I think voters tend to anticipate some Democratic energy from the other. This week we got a look at the campaign finance reports from both candidates. Both have piled up about a quarter million dollars for their campaigns. It's a quiet race right now, but I expect it'll really get cooking this fall.
Sally Mauk And this is a race, arguably, as important as any race on the ballot, Rob.
Rob Saldin It's absolutely critical for shaping life in Montana, Sally.
Sally Mauk We're out of time. Have a great holiday weekend, and I'll talk to you next week
Rob Saldin Thank you, Sally. Thanks, Sally!
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
