A Montana senator's push for the Trump ballroom could backfire at the polls. Threats of violence mar present-day politics. Prominent endorsements start to surface as the election gets closer. And a rising Democratic party star is headed to Butte to campaign for a proposed Montana ballot initiative.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, in the wake of the assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents' Dinner recently, Montana Senator Tim Sheehy proposed a bill authorizing construction of the White House ballroom that President Trump has been pushing, citing security reasons.
Seaborn Larson Right. So, the idea is to capitalize on this latest attempt on the life of President Trump to get this massive project through. It's been politically controversial, but it's also hit some legal snags.
The whole reason Sheehy is taking this up is because a federal judge recently said that Trump needs congressional approval to fundamentally alter the historic White House grounds. After a gunman stormed the White House Correspondents' Dinner in Washington, D.C. Last weekend, Sheehey says here is the proof that this safety issue is worth congressional approval.
To be clear, the White House Correspondents' Dinner isn't a White House event. It's not going to be held there in the future, so there's some logical stretching happening here, but this would-be assailant did travel across the country to allegedly gun down the president.
It's also a $400 million project, but it's being funded by donors. On Thursday, Sheehy tried to move this legislation by unanimous consent, which would put it on a fast track through the process so long as every senator agrees. However, Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley argued this is not a security project, but what he said was merely Trump trying to act like some sort of king. With Merkley's objection, Sheehy's attempt here was pretty short-lived, and he's back to the drawing board. But either way, an appeals court has paused that district court judge's order until further arguments, so construction is back on at least until early June.
Sally Mauk Rob, Senator Sheehy is not up for election this year, but Montana's other three congressional seats are. And I can envision the ads Democrats are going to run juxtaposing the ballroom push with prices at the gas pump.
Rob Saldin Right. It's not necessarily the best look for Montana Republicans, to the extent that this is associated with them, and clearly it is with Sheehy. Sally, somehow the ballroom seems to have become the most important thing for Trump. He brings it up all the time, including in meetings that are about different topics.
Right after the Correspondents' Dinner, he somehow immediately pivots to the ballroom, but there aren't too many other people who share the view that Trump's ballroom is a top tier concern. Sheehy, though, apparently is one of them, and it is certainly a good way to curry favor with Trump, but most voters will be able to identify more pressing concerns. We've got a war on in the Middle East, just to name one, with all kinds of spillover effects.
And we don't have to speculate about where voters are. The Washington Post just this week released a poll, and it's not pretty. Opposition to the plan is outpacing support by 28 points, and there's an ugly enthusiasm gap. Almost three times as many Americans strongly oppose it as strongly support it. Not surprisingly, there's a notable partisan gap as well, 65% of Republicans support it to one degree or another. So, Sheehy's not going to pay much of a price there and probably Montana Republicans beyond Sheehy won't either. But for a lot of Montanans who aren't necessarily people with a strong partisan attachment and who are struggling with increased costs of living and rising gas prices and so forth, the ballroom might very well have a 'let them eat cake' quality to it.
Sally Mauk Rob, this was the third assassination attempt on Trump, but he's not the only politician under threat, sadly. Here's something Democratic House candidate Ryan Busse revealed at a recent candidates' forum in Bozeman.
"I've fought in my life, in my career, some of the most powerful, nefarious political forces in this country, and it's not been easy. My family's had death threats. I've had death threats. My wife, Sara, has had death threats."
Sally Mauk And Rob, he's not the only candidate who has received violent threats.
Rob Saldin No, certainly not. Unfortunately, what Busse says here is fairly common for public figures, especially those in politics. And among other things, Sally, I just worry that it's a deterrent for entering public life. Some of these folks are in a position to hire private security, but most aren't. And of course, many will conclude that elective office just isn't worth being subjected to this kind of thing. It's not just threats, right? Sometimes it turns into actual political violence as we've seen recently, not only with the Correspondents' Dinner, but Charlie Kirk and the state legislators in Minnesota and Josh Shapiro's house getting firebombed in Pennsylvania and the Nancy Pelosi attacker.
It is important to remember that even with these notable events, political violence is still rare. It's also the case that political violence has been with us from the beginning in this country. You see it throughout American history. And there have definitely been periods where it's been considerably worse. And yet, even bearing those reality checks in mind, the spectre of political violence does hover over us in a way it hasn't since at least the 1970s. And it's unfortunately something that our political figures have to grapple with.
Sally Mauk And as you say, it probably is a deterrent for people running for public office. They don't want to put themselves, much less their families, through this.
This week, Seaborn, two western district House candidates received some notable endorsements. Democrat Sam Forstag was endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Republican Aaron Flint received a promise of support from the NRCC, the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Seaborn Larson Right, so not much surprise here, Sally. Sam Forstag appeared on a stage in Missoula a year ago with Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders. Sanders endorsed Forstag right out of the gate in January when his campaign launched. In my mind, these endorsements aren't really a liability until a general election scenario, so that's to say this feels more like a mid-primary top-off on Forstag's progressive credentials. In a field where sometimes, he doesn't come off as the most progressive candidate in the room, Russell Cleveland and Ryan Busse somehow are further to the ideological left on health care than Forstag. He's consistently been advocating this cycle for a public-option health care system. Maybe one of the ways to read this week's endorsement from AOC is it's a signal that these folks aren't abandoning Forstag for not being aligned on every little thing.
On the Republican side, Aaron Flint got the nod from the National Republican Congressional Committee. It's run by the House Republicans to try to expand the party's majority in that chamber. This, too, is pretty much on brand for Flint's campaign. Remember, he almost immediately got the endorsement of Trump and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, so he's got the backing of the establishment. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put out a statement saying this endorsement proves Flint will be a rubber stamp for the current GOP majority, which, I think it's fair to say, Flint has been campaigning on that very agenda.
Sally Mauk Republican Senate candidate, Rob, Kurt Alme is also embracing President Trump's endorsement. Here's an excerpt of a recent TV ad supporting Alme.
Kurt Alme ad "As President Trump's tough-on-crime U.S. Attorney from Montana, Kurt Alme locked up dangerous criminals and kept Montana families safe. Now President Trump says Kurt Alme will continue to fight for America First policies in the U.S. Senate."
Sally Mauk Rob, clearly the Alme camp believes the Trump endorsement will be a plus, not a minus.
Rob Saldin Yeah, for sure. That doesn't happen by accident. It's clearly a choice to tie himself to Trump. I've seen a couple of his mailers, too, and they emphasize the same point. His benefactor, Steve Daines, has also been very clear that Republican candidates should attach themselves closely to Trump. So it's no surprise that Alme has followed that advice. And the formula has worked well for Montana Republicans for lots of years now.
The tricky thing this time is that there is real reason to think that Trump's political capital has declined significantly as polling is now in the very low 30s. That's very bad. The Iran war, which he of course is inextricably linked to, is also very unpopular and it's created a real fissure in MAGA world. It's not clear the old formula of trotting out Trump at every turn is going to work as well as it has in the past. I actually suspect that the Trump connection is probably still helpful in a Republican primary, and obviously Aaron Flint is leaning on that very heavily in his primary for the western congressional district, and I think that makes plenty of sense. But for reasons we're all well aware of at this point, Kurt Alme doesn't have a viable primary challenger. He's effectively already in general election mode. It's much less clear, Sally, that there's the kind of upside with that electorate like we've seen in the past.
Sally Mauk That Alme ad was produced by a Washington, D.C.-based PAC called the American Leadership Fund. That same group has been mailing out flyers attacking Senate Democratic candidate Reilly Neill, and she's using that attack to fundraise, Seaborn.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, Sally. It was a pretty curious thing last week, I thought, when I got mailers attacking Neill from this PAC that's supporting Alme this early. Neill is the presumptive frontrunner in the Senate Democratic primary this year, but she does not have a major campaign operation behind her. Her social media, her fundraising is all pretty thin compared to the horsepower behind Alme's campaign. And these mailers attacking her had items that I think most Democrats would find agreeable; fighting the Trump agenda, supporting universal health care. It also put her personal cell phone number on the mailers, and voila, in the coming days, Neill's phone is exploding with supporters and checks are in the mail to her campaign.
The same day I got the Neill mailer, I also got a mailer by the same group, American Leadership Fund, supporting Alme. They put big money in Senate races last cycle giving more than $3 million to a group supporting Tim Sheehy. This is a sophisticated operation. So, what I think when I see these two mailers coming in side by side, when Neill is in fact not a current threat to Alme, is American Leadership Fund is raising her profile now to potentially take future voters away from independent candidate Seth Bodnar, who has shown he can raise money this cycle. But Bodnar's chances as an independent are slimmer than ever when the Democrat in the race has a meaningful share of the votes. So, for Riley Neill, who's been really blasting Bodnar on social media these last few weeks. It was an attack mailer that I think she's happy to live with.
Sally Mauk Speaking of fundraising, Rob, independent candidate Seth Bodnar and Senate candidate Kurt Alme lead all candidates in money raised so far by a pretty wide margin.
Rob Saldin Right, Sally. Bodnar's raised nearly $1.4 million, and Alme's brought in over $900,000. By comparison, the Democratic candidates all combined have only raised $330,000 dollars. Seaborn, as you note, Reilly Neill is the presumptive favorite there. She's brought in by far the most at $280,000, but that's obviously way, way behind Bodnar and Alme.
I think we can sometimes overstate the importance of money in campaigns, and there are many examples of a candidate winning an election despite being out-raised and out-spent. So, it's certainly not as simple as just tallying up who has the most money. But money is important insofar as it pays for advertising and staff and keeps the gas tank full and so forth. And for that matter, PAC dollars spend the same as small donor dollars. You've got to have enough money to get your name out there, to get your message out. That's especially true in an election like this one, where none of the candidates are very well known. That's when money can really make a difference.
In this case, Kurt Alme is running a bit behind Bodnar right now on the money front, but he's off to a good start and should be fine. Both of these guys look like they'll have the capacity to raise the money they're going to need. Reilly Neill, on the other hand, may be in a different boat.
Sally Mauk Lastly, Seaborn, voters may have a chance to limit "dark money" spending if the so-called Montana Plan makes it on the ballot this fall. And a rising Democratic star, Pete Buttigieg, is coming to Butte later this month to campaign for it.
Seaborn Larson That's right. On May 17th, Pete Buttigieg will be in Butte for a town hall to promote I-194. It's known as the Montana Plan, and it's a ballot initiative that sets out to block corporate spending and state-level elections. Buttigieg has been all over the country this year, dipping into different states to support certain candidates or causes that he wants to get behind. He's really, really effective as a messenger for the Democratic Party at the moment when that side's brand is kind of taking a hit. I'm sure there's some mutual benefit there if Buttigieg fancies himself as a future presidential candidate. The Montana Plan has endorsements from Republicans and Democrats. The idea of turning down the faucet of cash in elections at any level has pretty widespread support. So far this year it's been the Montana Mining Association and the Chamber of Commerce who have tried to block this campaign, and the legal effort on that has failed, although I expect we'll see more out of that group in the future.
Sally Mauk The election battles are heating up and so are these beautiful spring days, which I hope we can all get out and enjoy. Guys, I'll talk to you next week. Thank you.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
