Democratic House candidates try to separate from the pack. Senate Republican candidate Kurt Alme tries to downplay the last-minute maneuver that put him into the race. Senate Democratic candidate Reilly Neill promises to hold President Trump accountable if she's elected. And this may be the last time voters elect members of the state Public Service Commission.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, the four Democratic candidates for the western district House seat, Ryan Busse, Russell Cleveland, Matt Rains, and Sam Forstag held a forum in Missoula this week, and there were a lot of similarities but also a few differences in that forum.
Seaborn Larson Right. We're a couple of months now into this primary and I think a lot of the candidates have had a little more time to develop their messaging and I think they've also had a lot time to get comfortable with each other on stage. A couple of weeks ago, we talked about the forum in Butte, and we talked about how cordial these candidates have been along the campaign trail. And I think that largely stayed true this week as well. I think there were a few shots though. We saw Matt Rains throwing around 'lobbyist' as a bad word on the forum stage. Russell Cleveland also hit back at Matt Rains for his support of Israel and a question about where things are at with the U.S. relations with that country.
There's a couple of things that I've certainly noted. Ryan Busse and Russell Cleveland, who we know after a poll this week are leading things, seem a lot more relaxed, I think, in their position in the race. Ryan Busse's had a lot of confidence this race, I think due to the name recognition he's bringing to the table. Russell Cleveland said this week marked one year on the campaign trail for him as well. So, he's certainly got a lot of support, I think, from communities where he's spent a lot of time, he's made multiple rounds through the district already.
Sally Mauk And he got into the race very early – earlier than I think most of the other candidates. The other thing that stood out to me was when Ryan Busse – they were asked who in Congress they like – and it was interesting that Busse mentioned Marjorie Taylor Greene as someone and that got some astonished looks in the audience, I thought.
Ryan Busse 'I'm going to give you one that's really going to surprise you. You just got to hang with me a second here. Don't throw anything at me when I say this. Marjorie Taylor Greene.' (audience audibly gasps)
Seaborn Larson I think that was my only gasp that I clocked all night at the forum. His point there was he doesn't agree with the policies that Marjorie Taylor Greene brought to Congress, but he did appreciate the way she came in, really shaking things up and not playing by any rules and being loud and proud about what she was there for. And certainly, Marjorie Taylor Greene probably gets a little more credit from Democrats these days because of the way that she went out, and that's against the Trump administration. And she's sort of become a darling for the left for that in the last couple months.
Sally Mauk All of the candidates stressed what Democrats need to do in this election that they haven't maybe been doing well in past recent elections, and that's to be more open to a broader tent and also emphasizing their connection to the working class.
Seaborn Larson Right. Matt Rains, he doesn't live in the district, but he does come from probably the closest thing to an agricultural background in this primary. He spoke about Democrats really made rural Montana, and that at least back in the day, that's true. I think he sees himself as somebody who can kind of speak the language with ranchers and agricultural producers out there, and whether or not that's going to be enough to get him through this primary remains to be seen for sure. But I do think he was among some of the candidates this week who were talking about try to think ahead of the general and who can prevail in a district that certainly still leans Republican.
Sally Mauk A recent a poll, Rob, as Seaborn mentioned, shows Ryan Busse easily leading the pack in that western district primary. He's 15 points ahead of Russ Cleveland in this poll and way ahead of the others, and that's not a surprise given his name recognition.
Rob Saldin Yeah, exactly, Sally. It's a nice testament to the power of name recognition. As we touched on last week, Cleveland and Forstag have in many ways run impressive campaigns. And you definitely see some signs of support for those guys. But in a crowded primary field, it's just really tough to compete with someone like Busse who is fresh off a high-profile statewide run for governor. In politics, name recognition is gold and Busse had it from the start while all these other guys were at a zero. And that's just all the more true if there aren't significant distinctions between the candidates which has been one of the themes of this campaign not withstanding some of the distinctions, Seaborn, that you were just talking about at the forum this week. In that kind of environment, the guy with the name recognition just has an enormous advantage.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, the other thing that really struck me was at the end when Ryan Busse said he thinks this is a race that's not just important for Montana, but important for the country.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, and I think certainly the war in Iran the last few weeks has dialed up the urgency for this cycle, and, I think, the entire conversation around politics right now. Certainly, everyone who is paying attention is wondering what's gonna happen in the next couple months, in the couple weeks, whether this truce is going to hold. But that's a theme that I think colored a lot of answers at the event.
Sally Mauk And the Montana race is getting attention nationally because some people think that that western district House seat is in play and that can make a difference of who's going to control the House, Rob.
Rob Saldin Absolutely and especially as this election climate shifts more and more towards the Democrats, you're going to see more and more things come up. And certainly if there's a big swing towards the Democrats, and a lot of people think that's in play, it would be seats like the western district in Montana that you would expect to flip.
Sally Mauk We're going to switch to the Senate race now and talk a little bit about that. Kurt Alme is the favorite, not only in the Republican primary, but in the general as well. We've talked before about his anointment by Senator Daines in the last minute, shenanigans that got him into the race. Here's what Alme had to say about those shenanigans in a recent interview with Nonstop Local's, Bradley Warren.
Kurt Alme 'This was Senator Daines' process. And what Senator Daines has explained is that he wanted to discourage Jon Tester and Steve Bullock from entering the race to try to discourage what has happened with Democrats in Alaska and Ohio and North Carolina now. So that was his reasoning for what he did. What we've done is just step up. We're going to try and work hard and focus on the finish line and try to earn people's votes.'
Sally Mauk Well, he's up front, Seaborn, about why Daines waited to the last minute to drop out of the race.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, he's definitely not running from the reality of the situation, although I think Daines has probably given him clearance to do that the way that Daines has talked openly about that in different interviews or in different events. We're really curious to see how things go for Alme because of the situation come the general. I don't think there's a whole lot of people wondering whether or not he's going to make it out of the primary, although a vote count come June might be a register of that. But Alme's basically still trying to introduce himself as a candidate to so many people. If this is the first thing people think about when they hear the name Kurt Alme, he's got a lot of work to do to try to clear that gap. The questions I imagine are going to keep coming. We know the central committee chairs in certain parts of the state have told us at least that we don't mind who Kurt Alme is as a conservative, but this has left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths.
Sally Mauk Rob, Alme seems confident that voters won't hold his complicity and how he got into the race against him.
Rob Saldin Yeah. I mean, he's kind of in a position you got to take the bad with the good. The good here for Alme is that this gambit that he and Daines pulled off, it did basically assure him of the Republican Senate nomination, which is an outcome that would have been, to say the least, quite uncertain in an open primary with Troy Downing and probably others in the mix; But the bad is that Alme does have to live with the residual sense of illegitimacy attached to his nomination. And of course, it's entirely appropriate that he is associated with that regardless of what we just heard in that clip where he tries to distinguish between what he's done and what Daines has done. But he was obviously fully involved in this. It's not an accident that he filed his papers when he did, and to suggest that that was somehow separate and distinct from what Daines did is a bit ridiculous. But hey, it may well get him a Senate seat, and he otherwise would have been a long shot for it, so he can't be too upset.
Sally Mauk Also in that Senate race, Seaborn, Democrat Reilly Neill continues to be outspoken against Donald Trump and against the war in Iran.
Reilly Neill 'I'm focused on Montana, but when the President of the United States posts on social media that he means to kill millions of human beings if he doesn't get his way, well it's time – it's past time – that Congress did its job.'
Sally Mauk And she promises to hold Trump accountable if she's elected to the Senate seat.
Seaborn Larson Right. So, Reilly Neill has certainly been loud and proud about this the last few weeks, especially so with Trump dialing up the rhetoric on the war on Iran. And it's a bigger debate that's happening in Congress right now. It makes sense to bring this up. In terms of Montana's own congressional delegation, right now, all four seem to be fairly steadfast behind Trump. No one stepped out and said anything against Trump's approach to this war. At the same time, no one has lent their support specifically to the idea that Trump wants to wipe an entire civilization off the face of the earth either. But folks like Daines and Zinke are pretty close to the president and they may have a better understanding of how Trump wants to play this if it's more of a strongman act than a true threat, although this week we were only a couple hours from finding out. Reilly Neill here is taking a clear stance that we're yet to see from, I think, other candidates in this race.
Sally Mauk Including Kurt Alme [Larson agrees].
Polls, Rob, show Americans are generally opposed to the war in Iran, but is the anti-war rhetoric going to gain Neill or, for that matter, other Democrats any votes, do you think?
Rob Saldin I think a lot of times these days, the answer to a question like that is basically, well, not really. But that might not be the case with Iran. And that's because this really runs counter to one of the animating threads that's been with the MAGA coalition from the start. Dating back to 2016, one of Trump's central planks was an America First foreign policy centered more than anything else on no more stupid wars. And it was at the very heart of his critique of the Republican establishment with the Bush administration and the Iraq war is exhibit number one. So, this Iran situation is a problem for a lot of Trump's core supporters who really bought into that message of Trump's dating back to 2016. I'm not necessarily sure that some of those folks who are upset with him are just going to flock to Reilly Neill or some other Democrat. Some might, but perhaps more likely, this disappointment and sense of betrayal that we do see out there will manifest itself more in some of those MAGA voters not showing up in November. Of course, there's plenty of time between now and then, but things are trending very badly for Republicans right now, no doubt about it.
Sally Mauk And if they don't show up, that would help Democrats, obviously.
Rob Saldin Well, sure, Democrats would rather pick up those votes, but take one off the board for the Republicans, that helps them too.
Sally Mauk Finally, there are two seats on the state Public Service Commission that will also be on the ballot this year, Seaborn, maybe for the last time. There is a bipartisan push to have members of the PSC appointed rather than elected.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, so last year we saw a bill that would do a version of this actually fail to make it through the state Legislature. But that idea is living on in a draft policy that's being worked on by a legislative interim committee. It's a bipartisan effort so far. Representative Bob Carter and state Senator Gayle Lammers, that's a Democrat and a Republican respectively, presented this idea to the Energy and Telecommunications Interim Committee. Right now, the Public Service Commission is a five-member commission elected by districts. Even by Montana politics standards, it's not a very high visibility office. Certainly, most people have never heard of it, but it's absolutely important. The commission regulates utility services that have a monopoly over their areas, and we're talking about big service providers like NorthWestern Energy. Data centers have really become a big part of the conversation at the Public Service Commission. These are people who need to be really, really well-in tuned with complex regulations and kind of what it's become over the last several cycles is sort of a place for legislators to go after they've termed out or maybe people who are aspiring for higher office to seek office at.
Sally Mauk Guys, we're out of time, thank you, I'll talk to you next week.
MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
