"No Kings" rallies draw thousands from across Montana. What effect are they having? Candidates have their hands – and chests – out. Moderate Republicans acquaint themselves with Democratic consultants for legislative races.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, thousands of Montanans turned out last weekend for No Kings rallies from Miles City to Missoula to protest the Trump administration's policies, and they had lots of complaints.
Seaborn Larson Yeah, Sally. There was significant turnout for these rallies last weekend by Montana standards. 28 rallies were planned for Saturday, including Great Falls, Billings, Hamilton, Missoula, and Helena, which had some extra anticipation due to concerns there that the (Gianforte) administration was going to block weekend events, and that didn't quite happen.
The driving force behind these rallies is opposition to President Donald Trump, and the message a lot of times is just urging people to get involved. Former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock at the rally in Helena brought a sharper focus to a few items, including the Republican-backed SAVE Act that's currently working its way through Congress. That bill would add a number of ID requirements to vote, and it's got the support of Montana's congressional delegation. Bullock said this would disenfranchise voters at a time when Trump is generating a lot of opposition.
The president's immigration crackdown was another common theme at these protests across the country last weekend, as was the war in Iran. In Great Falls, people have been lined up over the Missouri River Bridge for these No Kings protests several times over the last year. In Hamilton, we saw people gathered along Highway 93. A 93-year-old Korean war veteran told the Ravalli Republic there last week, "This country is becoming more corrupt by the minute."
Sally Mauk Rob, this is the third such rally in the past few months, and here's Missoula protester Russ Talmo.
Russ Talmo "I hate to say it; there is a certain amount of fatigue. I think we're all tired of having to do this or be here. We'd all rather be somewhere else today on one hand. On the other, I think everybody recognizes this is the most important thing we can be doing."
Sally Mauk And protest fatigue, Rob, is a real thing. I mean, if we keep having these, will the attendance continue to be something that grows or shrinks?
Rob Saldin So far it certainly seems to be holding up, Sally, if not increasing. In one sense, of course, these things don't matter all that much, right? I can't imagine there are too many people who go to these events and actually, say, change their mind. The people who show up to such things are, by definition, highly engaged already, and they aren't swing voters.
That said, these protests, they do really shape the broader political environment and so in that sense they are important. It's in the news. That's part of the conversation. So even for people who are physically attending, many of them will be aware of it, the coverage of it, knows someone who attended. They also can be important for maintaining engagement among those people who do show up, and that's usually the case with political events like this, be it No Kings or the old Trump rallies or what have you. You are in the sense preaching to the choir, but sometimes the choir need to know they aren't alone out there and they're part of something bigger than themselves. That is an important and enduring aspect of these things.
Sally Mauk And at some point, perhaps, the people in power pay attention to what the choir is singing.
Rob Saldin Sometimes.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, all the congressional candidates have campaign ads all over social media, and some of the spiciest ones are coming from Democratic Senate candidate Reilly Neill, who went after Senator Daines and independent candidate Seth Bodnar recently.
Reilly Neill "Daines put some lackey in to ban abortion. And there's this other guy I've heard is paying folks for signatures to get on the ballot. He's been sued by over 70 women and he's not running as a Democrat because he does not respect women, and Democrats do."
Sally Mauk Seaborn, tell us more about what she's referencing here.
Seaborn Larson In 2021 a lawsuit filed against the University of Montana alleged gender discrimination on campus and within the Montana University System. The plaintiffs in that case alleged there was a hostile work environment and that these women were retaliated against for speaking out or being critical in their jobs. It's filed under what's known as Title IX, which outlawed discrimination based on sex.
The plaintiffs in this case were 18 women, including current faculty at the time and high-ranking employees. What Neill seems to be referring to here are claims by those plaintiffs that they had identified more than 70 women who suffered the same discrimination. That came up when those plaintiffs were trying to get this turned into a class action lawsuit, although that never happened.
While the lawsuit did accuse Bodnar of perpetuating this discriminatory environment, he was never named as a defendant in the lawsuit, only the University of Montana and the Montana University System.
UM did, however, settle the case in 2024 for $350,000. And as part of that agreement, the university made changes to its anti-discrimination approach, providing more training, streamlining feedback, and making it easier to file those kinds of complaints.
Bodnar, in his short time on the campaign trail, has answered to this somewhat in an interview last month with KTVQ in Billings. Bodnar said the lawsuit was meritless and said women made up the majority of executive staff in his administration on campus.
Sally Mauk As Seaborn said, Rob, that discrimination lawsuit was settled, but do you think it has legs in this Bodnar campaign, especially with women voters?
Rob Saldin I think it could. It's telling that Bodnar is getting hit on this from not just Reilly Neill, but from some of the Republicans, too. That does make it a little bit harder to dismiss as some crazed attack from the far left or the far right.
But one other thing strikes me here, Sally. And that is last week, we talked about Jon Tester's recent comments at the Helena event that shed some light on the thinking behind Bodnar's run. And Tester basically suggested that if we were to get to the late summer and it's clear that the Democratic nominee isn't competitive, that perhaps that nominee would drop out and presumably fall in line behind Bodnar as the stronger candidate. And as we've also discussed, consolidating the non-Republican vote would seem to be essential for Bodnar's candidacy. But Reilly Neill here, who seems like the likely Democratic nominee, she really doesn't sound like someone who has dropping out on her mind.
Sally Mauk All the candidates have been begging for money, but one of them, House Democratic candidate Russell Cleveland, poked a little fun at them.
Russ Cleveland "Hey, y'all, it's Russ. So, you know those annoying end-of-quarter asks and text messages by pretty much every politician in the country getting sent out your way right now? Chip in now! End of quarter! Urgent deadline. Chip in now! Good news, this isn't that. Because of all of you, we already hit our goal. No PACs, no corporate checks, just regular people pitching in to overthrow this corporatocracy we're living in."
Sally Mauk And Rob, people do get tired of the money begging, but there's no candidate that's immune from the necessity, including Mr. Cleveland.
Rob Saldin That's probably right, Sally, but, you know, anyone who's on one of these mailing lists and receives these very formulaic, often hair-on-fire solicitations will probably immediately sympathize with Cleveland here. So, it seems to be something of a clever mockery of a pretty irritating aspect of contemporary campaigns, and it comes off as refreshing.
Sally Mauk The last ad I want to discuss is a recent one from Democrat Sam Forstag, who for some reason has an announcer with a faux British accent.
Sam Forstag video "Sam is built different, but he can't get to Washington without you. Sam's biggest fundraising deadline is here, and he needs your help. And quickly. Donate today and send real working representation to Congress."
Sally Mauk I don't know if that was British or what that accent is, but Seaborn, this ad also shows Forstag shirtless doing pull-ups.
Seaborn Larson Right. There's a lot of ways to make a splash as a candidate, Sally. I guess we can say the Forstag campaign is playing the cards that they have. Twice in the last week, Forstag has posted shirtless pics on social media. Let's not forget about the first in-depth interview with Forstag, it featured him in a sauna, also shirtless. And he's done some other videos that are maybe non-traditional, going out to buy a suit jacket for a big event, and then there's the classic candidate stuff, like visiting a daycare facility to highlight issues in that industry. The campaign is also relentless about reminding viewers that Forstag was a smokejumper and wildland firefighter, although I suppose that might be a key ingredient when forming a campaign initially planned to take down former Navy SEAL Ryan Zinke.
I do think in total, Forstag's campaign approach to social media makes it distinct from the other candidates. Forstag is 31, he's a younger guy and would fall under, I think, the category of a digital native. He's grown up with this stuff. But of course, most campaigns are pretty online these days. It's 2026. Ryan Busse absolutely has his own brand of social media videos. Russ Cleveland, as we just heard, is doing more videos, but when Forstag pops that shirt off on Twitter, it hits. His campaign launch video has been sitting on top of his Twitter since January and has about 500,000 views. Last week, the abs pic got 2 million.
Sally Mauk Wow. Well, all of the candidates, Rob, try to make ads that create buzz, and I guess for Forstag that does translate to showing off his physique.
Rob Saldin That's clearly a deliberate choice. That kind of thing doesn't happen by accident. And I guess it's in the eye of the beholder, whether that's appealing or a bit cringe and awkward. But as Seaborn says, I mean, he certainly has a distinctive ad campaign.
And one of the things we've been noting, Sally, throughout the campaign is that all these Democratic candidates. They're quite similar when it comes to their positions on the issues. So, they do need to identify a way to stand out from the crowd, especially the ones who aren't Ryan Busse. Busse does have some of that name recognition that carries over from his run for governor, but the others need something. And this does seem to be Sam Forstag's way of doing that.
Sometimes these atypical advertising campaigns really do strike a chord. I remember one particularly effective one from Paul Wellstone way back in 1990 that is something of a classic, and these things can sometimes hit people and sometimes there's something to be gained by doing something a little unconventional.
Sally Mauk Lastly, Seaborn, there is a campaign consulting company called Fireweed Campaigns that is trying to help moderate Republican legislators keep their seats. But it's run by a lot of Democrats.
Seaborn Larson Campaign finance records released last week gave us a clearer picture of the support behind Republican candidates on either side of this intra-party conflict that's been going on for a number of years but has really dialed up this cycle as the state party has been working to snuff out its more moderate wing.
Those moderate incumbents, we found out last week, are all mostly winning the fundraising battle at the moment. But that's not all they have in common. A ton of these Republicans who have found success at the Legislature by building coalitions with Democrats, at certain times, are working with a campaign firm called Fireweed. This organization has been behind a couple other familiar campaigns, including the Election Reform Ballot Initiative in 2024, and Montanans for Nonpartisan Courts, another ballot measure out this year, which, by the way, just pulled in $1.7 million last quarter.
So, who's behind Fireweed? The firm was started by Lauren Caldwell, who worked for the Montana Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. She managed a Democratic congressional campaign and then moved to the Montana Federation of Public Employees. Some of the other staff have also worked for progressive outfits like Forward Montana, while at least one other staffer came from Republican politics over in Oregon.
But the Montana Republican Party and its hardline candidates have really zeroed in on Fireweed recently, accusing those moderate incumbents of, again, partnering with Democrats. This week, the party issued a statement rebuking specifically the GOP candidates who are working with Fireweed.
In a way, these incumbents are sort of out in the wilderness, but with some company. Fireweed seems to be guiding them through this war with the party, although I should note that some self-funding is certainly helping out in these key races.
Sally Mauk Rob, Fireweed's help could be a difference-maker for some of these Republican candidates, of course.
Rob Saldin Absolutely. Sally, big picture. In addition to those western congressional district primaries that we've spent a lot of time on, I really think these GOP legislative primaries are where the action is as we approach June 2nd, less than two months away now.
Sally Mauk Well, as you said, June 2nd is fast approaching, but Rob and Seaborn, we're out of time for this week. Thanks, I'll talk to you next week.
MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
