Democratic U.S. House candidate Sam Forstag hopes a Montana visit from AOC will help propel him to victory. Democratic Senate candidates are being walloped in the fundraising wars. And most of Jonathan Windy Boy's Senate colleagues want him gone.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau.
Sally Mauk Rob, another rising Democratic star traveled to Montana this week. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was in Missoula to support Democratic western district congressional candidate Sam Forstag. His campaign obviously sees her progressive politics as an asset for Forstag.
Rob Saldin Right Sally. I think it's definitely a boon to his campaign insofar as the primary is concerned. AOC is one of the most charismatic and engaging figures in the party, and while her visit came late and turnout was perhaps lighter than I expected, it'll still be all over social media, and Forstag will get some good traditional press out of it as well. More than that, it extends a sense of momentum for his campaign. There's been all the national press, some of it quite glowing. There's been his fundraising, and now he brings in a celebrity to stump for him. Especially in a multi-candidate primary, that's all good. AOC isn't going to be every Democrat's cup of tea, be it for policy stances or assessments that an association with AOC could hurt Forstag's electability should he make it out of the primary, but he's running as an underdog here, and the general election is irrelevant if you don't make it out of primary.
Sally Mauk I thought it was interesting that AOC addressed the elephant in the room right away:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez "I'm very aware of the fact that I'm coming here as a New Yorker. And I know, understandably, that there's a lot of suspicion around a city girl. But I also think it's important for us to note that a lot that is intended to divide us. Because what the folks and the big money don't want us to realize is that we're actually, in our struggles, are far more common than our landscapes are different."
Sally Mauk As you mentioned, Rob, the question is, do Montana voters feel like they have a lot in common with AOC?
Rob Saldin That is a question. This whole bit about the common struggle that unites us is just such a central element in her pitch and in Forstag's pitch. Of course, it went over well with the audience at the Wilma, but it's not just about the commonalities between Montana and New York. Part of the formulation, which also came up directly at the event, is that the whole basket of divisive social issues and cultural issues, that's similarly a distraction from the economic challenges and the rigged system that unite the overwhelming majority of Americans against our greedy capitalist overlords, right? It's a classic populist message. The trouble is, Sally, that a lot of Americans and a lot a Montanans just don't agree with that basic framework. They don't see that those things are just insignificant side issues. And they recognize that politicians like AOC tend to hold a rather predictable set of positions on those issues that very much align with the progressive left. And so it's not at all clear that's going to be an association that's going to help Forstag if he manages to be the candidate in the general election in November.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, Sam Forstag led the field in fundraising this last reporting period, so he seems to be having a late surge.
Seaborn Larson Definitely seems that way, Sally. We're seeing a lot of national attention around his campaign, as we mentioned, and he's trying to gain ground on Ryan Busse, a Democrat who's widely known for his 2024 run for governor. Campaign finance reports from April into mid-May show Forstag leading that period with $238,000 in his haul. That was the most for any campaign in both Democratic and Republican primaries. But on the Democratic side, it was not super surprising to see those numbers from Forstag. He's had a ton of national press. He's made plenty of connections with it. He's got the backing of an outfit called The Bench. It's a billionaire-backed group that's also supporting Democrats like James Talarico in Texas. Still, Busse's had some Democratic star power behind his own campaign, like that of Senator Ruben Gallego in Arizona, and he's not had any issue fundraising for this campaign, even after Forstag's last outing. Busse still leads in total fundraising in this primary. He and Forstag, as far as money goes, have serious leads over the other two candidates. That's Russell Cleveland and Matt Rains, both who had less than $60,000 each for their campaigns after this latest reporting period.
Sally Mauk Meanwhile, Seaborn, the Republican frontrunner, Aaron Flint, is easily outpacing his primary opponents in fundraising.
Seaborn Larson That's right. On the GOP side, Flint was pretty close behind Forstag actually, about $223,000 in that reporting period I mentioned. He's trounced his primary opponent's hauls. He's raised about $646,000 total since launching his campaign and has about $384,000 in cash on hand after expenses through that latest reporting round. Dr. Al Olszewski and Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen both spent big but raised less than $100,000 for their respective campaigns, but they've become a lot more visible in the last couple weeks of this primary.
Sally Mauk He may be behind in fundraising Rob, but Al Olszewski is still putting out ads like this.
Olszewski Ad Dr. Al Olszewski; veteran, third generation Montanan. Dr. Al will fight to unlock federal land for logging and mining, giving hardworking Montanans the job and future they deserve. But Washington insider, Aaron Flint backs more data centers and won't fight for Montana's water rights. Dr. Al Olszewski stands with President Trump. He'll fight data centers, reverse the water compact and take on Washington to save Montana'. 'I'm Dr.Al Olszewski and I approved this message.'
Sally Mauk The ad mentions Trump, Rob, but Trump has endorsed Dr. Al's opponent, Aaron Flint, and that endorsement seems to be the path to victory in Republican primaries across the country this year.
Rob Saldin Right. Trump endorsed Flint, but it still probably makes sense for Olszewski to draw that connection as best he can. As we discussed a couple weeks ago, Sally, Trump, despite all his trouble, is still the kingmaker in Republican primaries. There's actually been more evidence of that here recently with Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and Texas Senator John Cornyn getting humiliated in their primaries. Maybe Dr. Al can't say he got Trump's endorsement, but he can at least say how much the two of them agree. He's also in this ad drawing some distinctions between himself and Flint, first on public lands. Democrats might be a bit skeptical about this, but Flint has presented himself as a defender of public lands, and by contrast, Dr. Al here is saying that he'll prioritize resource extraction. Olszewski also emphasizes his opposition to AI data centers, which is an issue that is really gaining some traction. And then there's the mention of fighting for water rights and reversing the water compact with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes. That may not resonate much in Butte or Bozeman, but it's a big deal for a lot of Republicans on Dr. Al's home turf in the Flathead. And it's an issue that he's been associated with for a very long time.
Sally Mauk Switching to the Senate race, Seaborn, independent candidate Seth Bodnar appears to have gathered more than enough signatures to get on the November ballot, and he's leading all candidates in fundraising.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Sally, and it's not even really close when you look at the numbers. His campaign raised more than $730,000 in that latest reporting period. That's more than twice of any other candidate. Bodnar also showed up to Tuesday's deadline with 30,000 signatures from those who say they want him on the general election ballot in November. That number he needed to qualify was about 13,000, and I should note that campaigns like this will almost always shoot way over that target because there's always some number of signatures that are thrown out.
Sally Mauk The Republican frontrunner Seaborn, Kurt Alme, didn't raise as much money as Bodnar, but he's doing okay and way better than the Democratic candidates.
Seaborn Larson That's right, Alme and Bodnar both ended that latest reporting period with about $900,000. Alme raised $250,000 in the same period that Bodnar raised $730,000, but Bodnar right now is spending a lot of time and energy and money, obviously, on the signature gathering process and we'll see what happens here after the primary. Bodnar's not even on the ballot and he's been raising the most money. That's interesting.
Sally Mauk And speaking of Democratic Senate candidates, Rob, here's an ad by the Progressive Vet PAC which supports Alani Bankhead.
Progressive Vet PAC ad: "Republicans are trying to pick Montana's Democratic nominee for Senate. MAGA Super PACs are spending big to trick Democrats into voting for Reilly Neill. Why? Because they think Reilly Neill is the easiest Democrat to beat in November and hold this seat for Donald Trump. Don't fall for it. Vote no on Reilly Neill"
Sally Mauk I don't know, Rob, if the narrator in this ad wants people to vote or to take a nap.
Rob Saldin It's definitely unconventional. And, you know, sometimes that can work and draw attention simply because it's not your run of the mill political ad. I'm not sure if that's the case here or not. But what's more striking to me is that while it suggests that Democrats shouldn't vote for Neill, it doesn't point them to Alani Bankhead. It just tells them to vote no on Neill. Voters aren't being presented with a yes or no question. There are five Democratic candidates running for that nomination. A decision to not vote for Neill doesn't automatically mean people are going to tick Bankhead, who is after all a candidate who entered this race with zero name recognition. So seamlessly connecting those dots is a big ask for voters.
Sally Mauk This week, Seaborn, 40 of Montana's 50 state senators signed a letter urging Democratic Senator Jonathan Windy Boy to resign his seat because of a number of sexual abuse allegations he's facing. It's an unusual move prior to the 2027 legislative session.
Seaborn Larson Right, Sally. I wonder about the timing on this. Windy Boy is gonna be on the ballot next week for the eastern congressional race. I wonder if that might've played into their thoughts on putting this letter out now. But the big thing I noticed in this was the supermajority of the state senators signed that. What that signals to me, at least, is that they have the numbers to expel him if they choose to do so. The members of the Senate Ethics Committee also recused themselves from signing that letter. I think that was a little more explicit of a threat.
Sally Mauk They're basically saying to him, either get out or we'll throw you out.
Seaborn Larson That's right. He's not really been responsive to those calls so far. And as we noted on this show weeks ago, he had suspended his campaign for Congress only to restart it a couple of weeks later. He's been pretty defiant, I think, to a lot of people's calls for him to back out of Montana politics right now. He has not taken that bait.
Sally Mauk Lastly, guys, the primary is Tuesday, and it will be interesting to see if the wide-open congressional races will defy midterm election odds and attract a higher-than-normal turnout. That's one thing I want to be watching, Rob.
Rob Saldin For sure, Sally. One thing I'll be interested to see is whether some of the campaign effects that we've been talking about can overcome name recognition. Name recognition is just such a huge factor, especially in primaries when everyone has the same party label. You look at the PAC spending in that Senate primary for the Democrats. That really has changed the dynamics in that race, but it also came in towards the end and it may be a case of too little, too late to propel an unknown candidate in Bankhead to victory. That said, Neill, who has been the assumed front-runner, she's the most well-known candidate in the field, but she's hardly a household name. By comparison, Ryan Busse in the western House race has a much higher name ID due to his gubernatorial run. Even though Bankhead came in as an unknown, she has a lot less ground to make up, perhaps, than those guys running against Busse in the first congressional district.
Sally Mauk Seaborn, what are you going to be looking for?
Seaborn Larson I'm really keen on these legislative primaries on the Republican side. Since Art Wittich was elected to lead the GOP in Montana last year, he's gone all-in on his attempt to cull Republican legislators who always don't vote with the rest of their party. These are candidates who say they vote on what's best for their district, and they're incumbents for a reason. We're talking about Llew Jones, George Nikolakakos, David Bedey. Somebody I was talking to this week described the tenor of these races as 'nuclear', and I think that's not much of an exaggeration. We're seeing millions of dollars come into these legislative primaries, which a couple cycles ago would live comfortably on $10,000. But there's also some really fascinating primaries that don't fall evenly along those hardliner versus moderate lines. House Speaker Brandon Ler, definitely not a moderate, he’s being primaried by the right, by Ric Holden, who got the endorsement of Matt Rosendale. The Republican party also has endorsed Ed Walker, who's challenging Stacy Zinn, sort of a rising star for the GOP, and elected last year as vice chair of the party, although she seems to be falling out of favor with current leadership. So, we're going to be watching those legislative primaries across the state.
Sally Mauk Well, next time we speak, we'll know who won and who lost. Rob and Seaborn, I'll talk to you then.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Rob Saldin of the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, and Seaborn Larson, Senior Reporter at Lee Newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
