Montana's Republican congressmen stick with Trump, despite his criminal conviction. Democrat Jon Tester is well ahead of his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy in fundraising. Dark money groups are also spending heavily in that Senate race. Tuesday's primary features intriguing contests in the eastern district Republican congressional race, and in the Republican race for Clerk of the Montana Supreme Court.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels. Sitting in this week for Rob Saldin is University of Montana School of Journalism Professor of Political Reporting, Lee Banville.
Sally Mauk: Holly and Lee, this was an historic week with a former president being convicted of 34 felony counts. The reaction among Montana's top politicians has been predictable, with Republicans, Holly, standing by Trump.
Holly Michels: Yep. Sally, I think the phrases of the day that we saw were 'banana republic' and 'sham' in the statements that we got from Republicans in the state. Trump is, of course, very popular in Montana. In this election, his endorsement of Senate candidate Tim Sheehy was pretty critical for Sheehy's race in getting Representative Matt Rosendale to drop out of that Senate primary. So, we were curious to hear from Sheehy. He issued a statement after the jury's verdict saying that the trial was rigged, and he called it a 'state sponsored political persecution'.
We also heard from Montana's Republican Senator Steve Daines, who heads up the group that's working to get a Republican majority in the Senate. He put out a statement saying that the verdict reached by the jury was a sham, and he was critical of the judge for being a contributor to Biden's campaign. That comes from a $15 contribution the judge made back in 2020. We also heard from the National Republican Senatorial Committee - that's the group Daines runs - saying they're not concerned about the verdict in this trial and any fallout it might have with Trump endorsing Sheehy.
Then we heard from Representative Ryan Zinke. He's running for reelection in the Western House district and actually served in Trump's cabinet as Secretary of the Interior. He called the verdict a 'stain on the American justice system'.
And then Rosendale, who's stayed loyal to Trump despite that Sheehy endorsement, called the whole thing 'election interference' and pointed out that the sentencing date is a week before the Republican convention.
Over in that crowded primary to replace Rosendale in the eastern House district. The leading Republicans, that's Troy Downing, Elsie Arntzen and Denny Rehberg, they've all been trying to convince voters that they're the most loyal to Trump. Their statements after the verdict echoed those efforts. They also all called on voters to reelect the former president.
I think one thing to note, former state legislator Joel Krautter is in that Republican primary. He's already said he wouldn't vote for Trump this year. He said after the verdict that he respected the jury's findings, and he hoped the National Republican Committee would consider a more qualified nominee for president than Trump. But overall, Sally, I think these reactions are what we expected. They all came very swiftly after the verdict and are in line with what we're seeing from Republicans elsewhere, too.
Sally Mauk: Lee, Democratic Senator Jon Tester had a more muted response, basically saying you should follow what the judicial system gives you, etc. Do you think Trump's conviction will have any down ballot impact, for example, on Montana's Senate race?
Lee Banville The thing to understand about this conviction is it's like a political Rorschach test, like people look at it who were inclined to support the former president, and they see a political persecution. You know, you can fill in 'Banana Republic', I mean - all the words that Holly was just mentioning - and you can look at it from the perspective of those who are disinclined to support the former president, and they see this as justice/ no one's above the law. In a lot of ways, the most important question will be how does it resonate moving forward? Do people get more excited about voting for the former president or against the former president? And that can have effects, because this election is going to have a lot to do -most elections have a lot to do - with the enthusiasm of supporters for each side, like how fired up are they to go vote? Or are they not that fired up? Or are they depressed, and they don't show up? Oftentimes turnout is the key. And so this can have real effects on voter enthusiasm, because there might be some Republicans who feel depressed about the former president being now a convicted felon. There might be also some who see it as complete injustice and get more determined to sort of defend him.
Sally Mauk: Holly, the latest fundraising totals are in, and no surprise, Jon Tester has a healthy financial advantage in his Senate race with Tim Sheehy.
Holly Michels: He does. That is, like you said, Sally, no surprise and what you'd expect from an incumbent here. Over the six-week period that this last report tracks, from April 1st to May 15th, Tester outraised Sheehy by a more than 2 to 1 margin. Tester brought in $4.1 million to Sheehy’s $1.2 million, and he ended the period with about $11.7 million left in the bank to Sheehy's $2.2 million. Tester has also far outspent Sheehy so far this race. I think anyone who's turned on a television or seen advertising online anywhere recently can guess where a decent amount of that money is going. In this last report, we also saw Sheehy, who's a wealthy businessman, he gave his campaign another $600,000. That raises his self-financing total over the race to more than $2 million. Looking at the race overall, Tester's already brought in $37 million, which is far past his total for the 2018 Senate race, when he raised $20.9 million. At that point, that was the most expensive Senate race in state history. Sheehy so far, he's brought in $10.5 million. That's also more than double what Matt Rosendale raised over his whole race against Tester six years ago, which was $5.5 million. So, we've got a lot of money coming in on the candidate side. I think we're going to expect to see a lot more as we get past this primary and into the general election.
Sally Mauk: Lee, how much candidates raise from donors isn't really the full story on how much money is spent on a particular race. Outside groups spend millions to promote a particular candidate. For example, Americans for Prosperity is hoping to influence Montana's senate race with ads like this:
[Ad: Chris Clem] In my over 27 years as a Border Patrol Agent, I've never seen the border this bad. That's why I'm partnering with Americans for Prosperity, to hold President Biden and his allies accountable - like Senator Jon Tester, who's voted against border security and said he's against a wall or a fence. To solve this crisis we need more walls, more agents and modern technology. So, join me and Americans for Prosperity in telling Senator Tester it's time to secure the border and secure America.
Sally Mauk: Lee, immigration is an issue Republicans are confident they can win on.
Lee Banville: Just to be clear, according to U.S. law, that's not an election ad. That is an issue ad, because we're just telling Jon Tester to defend the border. It's not telling you to vote for Tim Sheehy. And so the thing to always understand about the economics of campaigns is you can donate to a candidate, but that is capped, it’s limited to prevent sort of clear, possibilities of corruption. But you can give as much money as you want to an organization that will run an ad that doesn't tell you to vote for or against someone, but just tells you about an issue. And so, immigration is one of those issues where you're going to see a lot of money spent that tells you, you know, 'tell John Tester to do X.' It is a pro Sheehy ad, but it falls under this weird dark money sort of rule that allows that money to be anonymous and unlimited. And so, what we see is much more money will probably come in - especially attack money - will come in from these types of groups on both sides. It's not a Republican or Democrat thing. There's going to be plenty of money coming in from everywhere. But I do think it's always important to understand that that is the easiest way for large donations to have effect, is to go through an organization like that where it's not express advocacy for a specific candidate or against a specific candidate.
Sally Mauk: Holly, Jon Tester knows immigration is a vulnerability, so he has put out ads like this one on the air:
Tester Ad: When Montanans see a problem, we get to work. Jon Tester worked with Republicans fighting to shut down the border to target fentanyl traffickers and add hundreds of new Border Patrol agents, and he fought to stop President Biden from letting migrants stay in America instead of Remain in Mexico. Jon Tester knows defending Montana starts with securing the border.
Sally Mauk: Remains to be seen, Holly, whether Tester's messaging on immigration will be convincing to voters.
Holly Michels: Tester's campaign is definitely really trying to make this point. They've spent $14.5 million on this ad reservation through the fall, really trying to play up where Tester's parting from national Democrats and the Biden administration on the southern border. And we've seen polling that shows that the southern border is a top issue for Montanans, especially Republicans that Tester needs to pick off and independents too. And Tester's been working really hard to navigate this issue. You know, this ad right off the bat says Tester's working with Republicans, shows him standing with Republicans in D.C. It also talks specifically about how he's fought against the Biden administration on the Remain in Mexico policy. We also see Tester with the former head of the state Highway Patrol from under a Democratic governor that's talking about fentanyl in Montana, which has been a major problem tied to the southern border. Outside this ad, we also saw recently that Tester came out as the first Senate Democrat to say he supports the Laken Riley Act, which requires any migrant who commits burglary or theft to be detained. Tester had previously voted against a similar policy. That was when it was part of the budget deal, and if it was tacked on to the budget bill, that whole deal would have fallen apart. But that did give Republicans an attack point to say Tester opposed that policy. But now that it's the stand-alone bill without that baggage, he's aggressively supporting it, which I think is coming to some frustration for Republicans who now can't use that as a talking point against him.
Sally Mauk: Primary elections can be ho hum, Lee, but there are some intriguing primary races to be decided on Tuesday. And they're topped, of course, by the Eastern District Republican congressional primary. Troy Downing appears to have the edge, and he's gone full-on Trump to appeal to his potential constituency. He put out a tweet saying he stands with Trump and so did the American people.
Lee Banville While the second district is a fairly conservative district to start with, and we're talking about the Republican primary within that district. So, it is absolutely a contest between who can make the most genuine and effective appeal that they are the type of Republican that would support the former president and would get that endorsement. I mean, he hasn't made an endorsement in that race, and so it is a very wide-open question about who's going to win. Yes, Downing has done well with finances, but I think Elsie Arntzen is a statewide elected official for a couple of terms who's gotten a lot of headlines, not always for good things. Dennis Rehberg was a long-time congressman. There's a really interesting mix of candidates out there, and it should potentially lead to some interesting turnouts come primary night.
Sally Mauk: Another intriguing Republican primary race, Holly, is the Clerk of the Montana Supreme Court, and that's between incumbent Bowen Greenwood and challenger Jason Ellsworth. What's actually going on in this race? Why is there even a challenger?
Holly Michels: We don't often talk about the Clerk of the Supreme Court race, especially in the primary election. What we're seeing here is it's no secret Montana Republicans are, in general, pretty frustrated with the courts in the state, especially the state Supreme Court, which has batted down several bills that they've brought in recent years. That's why, specifically, Senate President Jason Ellsworth said he joined this race on the filing deadline, to do so in March. He's running specifically because of one of the high court's rulings that struck down election laws passed by the Republican majority legislature. Ellsworth is arguing that he doesn't think the Court has reached his full potential from this clerk's office when it comes to education about the court. He says if he's elected, he would continue to do the things he's doing right now, like writing letters to the editor and using social media to be very critical of the court.
And then on Bowen Greenwood, the incumbent side, he said that he's running again because he's done a lot to increase public access and awareness of court operations. He wants to continue that in a second term. The major point Greenwood is making to Republicans is that he's been a great resource to the party. He says he's being a team player by helping fellow party members know how the court works, know about the justices, which he says is information Republicans can use to try to reform the court. So, this is, again, not a race that we normally are really watching closely on primary night, but it's one I think that's going to get a lot of attention.
Sally Mauk: Well, the primary election is this Tuesday and if you haven't already voted, there is still time to drop off your ballot or go to your polling place on Tuesday. And you can get great candidate information on the MTPR website. Holly and Lee, we're out of time. Thank you.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels. Sitting in this week for Rob Saldin is University of Montana School of Journalism Professor of Political Reporting, Lee Banville.
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