Will bad publicity turn good for Tester and Arntzen? Whose coattails are longer?

Sen. Tester's position on the war in Gaza could cost him some young voters. State school superintendent and Republican congressional candidate Elsie Arntzen has angered some members of her party. Democrats hope to pick up a few more legislative seats this year.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. 

Sally Mauk: Rob, as we've mentioned before, Senator Jon Tester is in a tight race with his likely Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy. And not just because Montana is a red state. Democrats around the country are facing criticism from parts of their base over U.S. support of Israel's war in Gaza.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, that's right, Sally. This certainly isn't what Democrats want to be talking about right now. It does reflect what is really a genuine split in the party's base. There's been an unmistakable generational dynamic at work concerning the Gaza war, with younger voters much more sympathetic to the Palestinians than older voters. And the issue has left many, as you suggest, elected Democrats — from Joe Biden to AOC to Jon Tester in an uncomfortable position.

Sally Mauk: Protesters opposed to the war tried to disrupt a recent speech Tester gave to a state party gathering, and protest organizer Kimber Brown of Livingston, offered this threat if Tester doesn't come out in support of a permanent cease fire. 

Kimber Brown We won't vote. We're not going to put our name down on the ballot. We are not going to walk up to that booth at all. And we're definitely not going to vote for somebody that is still evil and the lesser of two evils.

Sally Mauk: And here's Tester's response:

Sen. Jon Tester: I believe that people ought to be able to make sure that their issues, their concerns are heard. I think it's part of what makes our democracy work. I have also been clear that Israel needs to follow international law. I've also been clear that Israel needs to defend themselves.

Sally Mauk: You know, I don't think that response, Rob, is going to placate those opposed to the war in Gaza.

Rob Saldin: Well, certainly not the protesters like the one whose clip you just played. It, might go some ways toward satisfying the vast majority of people who know the issue well, though, and who recognize that there aren't easy answers to that situation. You know, in terms, Sally, of what it means for Tester in the fall, I'm pretty skeptical that it's going to have a significant implications for the election. These protests we're seeing, I think, have more bark than bite in that they're dramatic and they garner a lot of attention, but they don't necessarily reflect anything that approaches a deep and widespread revolt. Now, obviously in a really close election, a small number of votes can make a difference. But for the vast majority of young people who would otherwise be inclined to support Democrats, having Trump at the top of the ticket, that's going to be more than enough motivation to show up in November. Even if they aren't thrilled with Biden or Tester on Israel, young voters — like older voters — can hold more than one thought in their minds at a time, and I think they'll be able to discern a meaningful difference between these candidates.

One final point, Sally. I actually do think that there's a potential upside in all of this for Tester in that these protests by far-left activists, they reinforce for voters that Tester is, at the end of the day, a moderate. So, it helps him distinguish himself from the hard left and the stereotypes that make the national Democratic Party so off-putting to so many Montanans.

Sally Mauk: Holly, State School Superintendent Elsie Arntzen is among those Republicans hoping to win the Eastern District congressional seat, but she got a scathing rebuke this week from a Republican controlled legislative committee over her office's handling of some laws passed by the last legislature. What are they so mad about?

Holly Michels: Yeah, Sally. So, there's been tension brewing between legislators and Elsie Arntzen for some time now. We first saw this dispute back in January over how OPI's implemented a data modernization project that lawmakers put $14.5 million dollars toward over the last several years. And lawmakers weren't happy with Arntzen back then. And I think it's safe to say that things haven't improved since.

On the first day of this two-day meeting, they clashed with OPI over how laws related to Indian Education for All, early literacy programs, charter schools, teacher pay, and parental choice are all being implemented. Arntzen is claiming that she's following the laws as written. The lawmakers are saying that's not the case and she's delaying putting them into action. One example of that is an early literacy program for really young kids who need help learning to read. This was created by a law passed last year and Arntzen is delaying it from starting this summer over what she says is a technicality. But lawmakers disagree, and it's left them angry that this program targeting some of the youngest students isn't being used.

Another example is a total lack of enforcement from OPI for the nearly 150 school districts, who were allocated more than half a million dollars for Indian Education for All instruction but didn't document how that money was spent. While legislators make clear they don't have an issue with OPI staff, this committee voted in a 6-2 bipartisan fashion — three Democrats and three Republicans — to send a letter to Arntzen saying that she's not satisfied the duties of her office.

Lawmakers also heard on-the-ground concerns at this meeting from school districts, saying they're left in really tough positions because of all this and the OPI has become adversarial, and it ends up the kids get hurt by what's going on here.

Sally Mauk: Here's what Republican committee Chairman David Bedey had to say about Arntzen.

David Bedey: An organization depends upon its leadership. At the end of the day, the buck stops at the top of the of the org chart. And for that reason, I believe that this committee should communicate to the Superintendent of Instruction the view that she has failed to meet her constitutional obligation.

Sally Mauk: But Arntzen's deputy, Rob Stutz, read this response from Arntzen.

Rob Stutz reading Arntzen's statement: "This is a political persecution. I'm being attacked because I am a conservative. I stood up for limited bureaucracy, fought the radical transgender agenda, opposed wokeism, promoted good government and delivered results for our children, parents and schools."

Sally Mauk: But none of the laws in question, Holly, have anything to do with transgender, or what you might call 'woke' issues.

Holly Michels: Yeah. Sally. So, in her response that Stutz read, Arntzen veered into this culture war territory, which is something she has done in the past - saying she opposes radical transgender agenda, opposes wokeism — though all of that really has nothing to do with what lawmakers are concerned about here.

Arntzen had her deputy, Rob Stutz, read this letter. It also said that she stood up for limited bureaucracy, promoted good government, and that she felt lawmakers were asking her to disregard written law and that would be a dereliction of duty. But we heard that frustration from Representative Bedey there in part, too that Arntzen wasn't in attendance even though they'd asked her on both days to come. I think that'll be interesting to see where this goes. Legislators are out of session right now, so their ability to act is pretty limited, but they do have the ability to send this letter, take this step and we'll see what happens next.

Sally Mauk: Rob, this Arntzen incident is another recent example of Republican infighting. Do you think it bodes anything for her congressional race?

Rob Saldin: Well, Sally, I think this could be an all-news-is-good-news kind of situation. That statement Arntzen put out — it's very Trump-like. It's 'I'm-being-persecuted. The-bad-people-are-out-to-get-me-because-I'm-a-conservative.' And for good measure, there are those non sequitur, transgender and wokeism shout outs in there, too.

Now, of course, that whole narrative that she puts out is very seriously undermined by the fact that it's not just Democrats, as Holly noted, who are saying that Arntzen is failing to do her job. It's Republicans as well. And even the two Republicans who voted against this rebuke, they both acknowledge that the concerns being raised were legitimate. They just thought it should be taken to court. So, if you dig down to that level of the story, it looks quite bad for Arntzen.

But I do think it's entirely possible that some of those elements get lost in the calculations of Republican primary voters, and that what sticks in the minds of a lot of people is going to be that Elsie Arntzen is a fighter that, just like Trump, her opponents are unfairly going after her because she's a conservative and won't back down on transgender and woke nonsense and so forth. So, I think it's an entirely possible scenario that this kind of thing helps her in the sense that it raises her profile and allows her to stand out in a crowded primary, where it might only take 35% of the vote to win the thing.

Sally Mauk: Well, Holly, the deadline for candidates to file for office has come and gone, and both Democrats and Republicans are, not surprisingly, expressing optimism about the '24 election. Democrats are hoping to pick up a few more seats in the legislature.

Holly Michels: Yeah, Sally. We had a bit of a last-minute flurry of filings, which I think indicates, like you said, Republicans and Democrats are both feeling pretty optimistic here. Republicans ended up fielding a candidate for every legislative seat on the ballot this year, and Democrats got candidates in all but 18 seats. This cycle all 100 seats in the state House are up for election and 25 seats in the Senate — which is half — are up for election. For Democrats, leaving just 18 seats open is far better than their performance last cycle, where they left 37 seats uncontested. The party ended up in a super minority last session, but they're hopeful they're going to pick up some seats this cycle thanks to the redistricting process.

Outgoing House Minority Leader Kim Abbott’s predicting that the party picks up between 8 and 10 seats in the House. Over in the Senate, Minority Leader Pat Flowers is hopeful about adding 2 or 3 Democrats.

Republicans we spoke with don't actually disagree about those projections, though they would argue it's because of gerrymandering favoring Democrats, while Democrats say this is a fair reworking of legislative districts following the once-every-decade redistricting process we went through last year.

Democrats are hoping they can pick up seats in Missoula and Gallatin counties as well, some in Great Falls, where they were pretty well destroyed over the last few cycles.

But then there's some more challenging districts in Missoula and Billings that are going to be maybe a little harder for them to retain. Because of this new map too, looking at the primary, we've got some pretty interesting races, down in Gallatin County pitting current legislators against each other. Looking at House District 68 you've got House members Jennifer Carlson and Caleb Hinkle as well as Scott Sales all in that Republican primary. So I think the primary is going to be pretty interesting with some races like that. But overall looking to that general, I think Democrats are feeling pretty hopeful about how things look with this new redistricting map.

Sally Mauk: Well, Rob, Democrats are hoping also to ride Senator Tester's coattails, but it remains to be seen if those coattails are strong enough to make much down ballot difference.

Rob Saldin: Well, Tester being on the ballot definitely will help Democrats turnout operation, and that really should have trickle down benefits for all those down ballot races. But the trouble for Democrats really is that Donald Trump is also going to appear on ballots this fall, and he's got significant coattails of his own. We really saw four years ago how Trump drew out low propensity voters and how that really swamped Democrats and what was a devastating election for them.

So, we've got to bear in mind, I think, that that old political law, that high turnout elections are good for Democrats and bad for Republicans, that just doesn't hold up very well anymore. The Democrats' electoral coalition is more reliable at this point, and so a big spike in turnout may well be more likely to benefit Republicans than Democrats.

But even with that balance shifting, it's still clearly the case that there are Democratic votes out there for the taking and that the Tester operation will help find those people and get them to the polls. So, that combined with the the new district lines, have Democrats feeling optimistic at, at least cutting into those overwhelming margins the GOP has in the legislature. Yet even if everything breaks just right for Democrats in this cycle, Sally, they're still going to be facing significant Republican majorities in the legislative session next year

Sally Mauk: Well, Rob and, Holly, we're out of time. I hope we can all enjoy this beautiful weekend. And I'll talk to you soon. Thank you.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.