If Gov. Gianforte runs for re-election, as expected, he'll face a political newcomer with an old message: the ultra-rich don't care about everyday Montanans. But are voters even paying attention to this race?
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin.
Sally Mauk: Rob, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte has not formally announced he's running for reelection, but it's almost a foregone conclusion that he will seek a second term. What do you think are going to be his main arguments of why voters should give him four more years?
Rob Saldin: Yeah, Sally, I think he's in a really strong position. And I'd say before we even get to him and his argument, or the issues, or campaign strategy, we should take a moment just to consider what political scientists sometimes referred to as the fundamentals. So, that is like the background dynamics that are baked into the cake prior to any influences from the campaign itself. Chief among those in this case is the fact that Gianforte is the incumbent, and that's just a huge advantage, because incumbent governors almost always win when they're seeking a second term, right? Think of Steve Bullock and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Racicot and so on — and by the way, that's not some weird Montana thing. This is a dynamic you see across the country.
The other key fundamental going into this thing is that the partisan winds have changed in Montana over the last decade or so, for a long time. Montana was a legit purple state with a lot of split ticket voters and whatnot. Well, that's no longer the case. This is a red state. Now, perhaps it's a red state in which Democrats can still be competitive under certain conditions, right? We aren't Idaho, we aren't Mississippi, but we are a red state at this point.
And as a Republican, this is, of course, an enormous advantage for Gianforte. And then building on that foundation, right — Gianforte does have some things he can point to, Sally. He can say out there on the campaign trail, you know, we've got low unemployment, robust job growth. We've got some housing initiatives. We got anti-woke culture war issues to play on and so forth. So he has a lot to work with going into this thing.
Sally Mauk: Well, what are is vulnerabilities? I think starting with the anger Montanans feel about their high property taxes. I guess the question is, will they blame the governor?
Rob Saldin: I do think the property tax issue is what stands out as perhaps the biggest liability. This emerged, of course, at a time when there was already a lot of angst around the cost of housing and property values increasing, especially in places like Missoula and the Flathead and Bozeman. So, given those dynamics in the economy, it's not surprising that property taxes would increase. This was foreseeable, and in fact, warnings were issued ahead to the last legislative session that this would happen.
Now, property tax is a complicated issue. And for those looking for a deeper dive, Austin Amestoy and our own producer on this show, Ed O'Brien, had a nice explainer piece a week or two ago on property tax, but the political bottom line is that property taxes have gone up significantly at a time when Republicans had overwhelming majorities in the Legislature and a supposedly anti-tax Republican governor. And so there is, I think, something for Democrats to work with there.
The other one, we might say a word about, Sally is as maybe a potential vulnerability is abortion. You know, since that Dobbs decision, the politics of this issue have been upended in a manner that spin generally beneficial for Democrats. And there have been some notable election results in places like Kansas and Ohio that suggest some real pushback on efforts to restrict abortion at the state level. That said, at least for now, we're largely insulated from all of that because of the Montana Supreme Court's 1999 Armstrong decision that basically ensures abortion is legal in Montana based on our state constitution's explicit right to privacy. Now, some future legislature could, of course, revisit some of these things, but that's the status quo right now. And that is a little different than what we've seen in some of these other states. But I'd certainly expect Democrats to try to make this a liability for Gianforte and Republicans more generally. The question is whether or not that's going to be effective at a time and in a place where it's not quite as front and center and not quite the kind of immediate issue that it is elsewhere.
Sally Mauk: Holly, Democrat Ryan Busse, a political newcomer from Kalispell, has been campaigning for governor for months now, but a lot of people I talked to say, 'Ryan who?' Tell us more about Mr. Busse.
Holly Michels: So he is a newcomer to politics and is working pretty hard, I think, to get his name out there right now, but like you mentioned, is probably struggling to get that name recognition going.
Busse was born in western Kansas, where his family farmed and ranched, and he said that's where he got his interest in hunting, fishing and all things outdoors. After college, he eventually became a gun salesman, and he worked his way up through the firearms company Kimber. And as he elevated through the company, they became known internationally as a firearms seller. After he climbed the ladder in that industry, he said that his background in advocacy for public lands and conservation, and then deep concerns over mass shootings eventually caused enough of a conflict that he couldn't work for a firearms manufacturer anymore.
And probably what he's best known for right now, he went on to write a book that he says discloses the secrets of the firearms industry that he says has radicalized America. He's also a senior advisor for Giffords, which is a group that works to end gun violence in the U.S.
In addition to being a former firearms executive, Busse is also a former Republican, which I think will probably hear and bring up a fair amount during the campaign.
Like you said, Sally, he lives in Kalispell now with his family and his family — consumers of news are probably also familiar with — his two sons, Badge and Lander, were plaintiffs in the successful lawsuit youths in Montana brought over the state's climate policy last year.
When it comes to campaigning, Busse opened up his campaign with a video that takes some really direct shots at Gianforte — critical of his wealth, trying to paint them as out of touch, and it's an ad where we also see firearms featured pretty heavily, which I think is a preview of what we'll see throughout this campaign.
Sally Mauk: Here's an excerpt of that campaign video that Mr. Busse released.
Busse Ad: The Montana that I love and that my kids have been raised in is being threatened right now. It pisses me off that Greg Gianforte just wants to sell this state to his rich buddies and turn it into a playground so only they can afford to live and play here. Me and Gianforte — it's a tale of two Montanas.
Sally Mauk: Rob, that's Busse's main critique of the incumbent, that he's a rich bully who doesn't care about everyday Montanans.
Rob Saldin: Right. Big picture, Sally, from Busse on down — Montana Democrats need a way to draw some contrasts and distinctions that push against the kind of default partisan split, which if it comes just down to that is a recipe for a Republican blowout. This formulation from Busse is one they clearly hope will appeal to your kind of average working class Montanans, which is the precise cohort that has moved strongly towards the GOP during the Trump-era and has undermined the Democratic Party's standing so badly in this state. And this message from Busse hits on good themes for Democrats in Montana. It's using a different script from, say, the the activist groups on the left that get so much attention and that are so closely associated with the national party. Of course, this exact kind of thing worked quite well against Gianforte back in 2016 — this was Bullock's reelection. The trouble is, Sally, that was eight years ago now, and Gianforte has been around the block a time or two. It's going to be harder to just simply smear him as a rich carpetbagger from New Jersey. At this point, that's just one consideration among many that Montana voters have, and it's a consideration that we're already very familiar with.
Sally Mauk: Holly, Busse's argument that Governor Gianforte is an out-of-touch billionaire may have gotten a boost with the news this week that Gianforte and his wife have bought the well-known Hauser Mansion in Helena for $4 million. He already has another house in the Mansion District in Helena and a mansion outside Bozeman. I'm thinking the guy must have a lot of furniture.
Holly Michels: I can imagine he might, Sally. Yeah, this is a pretty impressive house. It was the home of Samuel Hauser, who was the territorial governor of Montana, and then it later served as home to a Catholic bishop. And then it was a convent. In 1969, it was again home to a governor — that was former Governor Tim Babcock and his wife Betty — who bought and restored the mansion. And it's a very big, very ornate home that stands out in a neighborhood of big old mansions. It's in Helena's Mansion District.
Gianforte and his wife Susan say they'll live in the mansion, which is actually just a couple blocks away from another large, old home they purchased in the same neighborhood a couple of years back. That was because the state owned governor's mansion is not habitable. When Gianforte's out of office, which would be four years from now, if he runs for reelection and wins, he said he'll offer up this Hauser mansion as a donation to the state for future governors to live in.
But this purchase does leave a ton of questions like, what happens to that mid-century governor's mansion that's over by the Capitol that past governors, as recently as former Governor Steve Bullock occupied? The Legislature over the last few cycles, has appropriated about $2 million for repairs to that home, but Gianforte's administration has said with rising construction costs, that wasn't enough to bring it up to a livable standard. So that project is stalled out and it's unclear what will happen with that funding, or with the home. It's also unclear who the state will decide on accepting this gift of the Hauser mansion.
There's also questions about things like what upkeep would be. This is a several thousand square foot home built in 1885, so you can imagine the heating bill alone's probably quite a bit to tackle. Gianforte's made clear he'll cover those costs during his time in office when he's living there, but after he's out of office - if the state were to assume it - those are questions that we'd have to find answers to.
Sally Mauk: A couple of other questions are, the official governor's residence — it's not a mansion, but it's a very nice home.
Holly Michels: Yeah, it's a nice home. It's a nice location. It is in a fair amount of disrepair. I went in there and interviewed former Governor Steve Bullock when he was leaving office, and he was talking about just challenges with plumbing, other things. There's asbestos abatement that would be going on that they need to get tackled. So there's a lot of work, but it is kind of interesting construction, a 1950s (I think) -era home right by the Capitol, which past governor found pretty convenient.
Sally Mauk: As I said earlier, Rob, this race — I don't think has generated a lot of interest yet. Busse is clearly at a disadvantage money-wise, even though he's pleased with his fundraising so far, he's going to be vastly outspent.
Rob Saldin: Yeah, that's probably right, Sally. And yet, you know, it's still relatively early. So it's not necessarily shocking that Busse isn't dominating whatever the contemporary equivalent of the watercooler discussion is today. But your larger implication, I think, is right. It's going to be a challenge for Busse to get some attention of his own this cycle, because not only is he probably going to be outspent by quite a bit, but we've also got — as we talked about last week — probably the number one most contested Senate election in the entire country, and of course, we're going to be living with the Biden/Trump rematch as well, almost certainly. That's just going to be tough to break through, but Busse is going to have to find a way and certainly he started off punching out of the gates and coming out aggressively. You know, if he is going to break through and get some attention of his own, you know, he's going to have to keep that up.
Sally Mauk: Holly, how do you see this race getting on voters radar?
Holly Michels: I think what Rob just said — it's going to be a huge challenge. That Senate race is going to suck up all the oxygen. Trying to find ad space is going to be a big challenge. I think for Busse specifically, it's going to be hard. We've talked about on this show before, Gianforte has, you know, pretty vast personal wealth plus the power of incumbency. He's just coming into this with, you know, the name recognition. He's been governor for almost four years now. He was a congressman before that. This is, you know, one of several runs for offices he's made, so Montanans know who he is at this point. Like you started off the show with, Sally, I think a lot of Montanans are not familiar with Busse at all. He'll do his best, but I think it's going to be pretty challenging to get his name out there.
Sally Mauk: We will be closely following the governor's race and Holly and Rob, thank you. Stay warm and I'll talk to you next week.
Rob Saldin: Thank you, Sally.
Holly Michels: Thanks, Sally.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribewherever you get your podcasts.
