Montana State University Billings released the 32nd edition of its political poll Wednesday. The poll shows a majority of Montanans and Wyomingites support President Donald Trump and disapprove of Congress.
The Mountain States Poll was conducted from October 7 through 16, around the time President Trump informed Congress he would not participate in the impeachment inquiry.
According to the poll, 59 percent of Montana voters and 77 percent of Wyoming voters do not approve of the impeachment inquiry.
“Only 3 percent approval for this among Republicans. You can flip that among Democrats, 77 percent approve of impeachment inquiry. But independants, which are a key demographic in Montana as it can be a swing state in some cases, only 39 percent approve of the impeachment inquiry,” Dr. Jason M. Adkins, director of the Mountain States Poll says.
The University of Montana’s Big Sky Poll released earlier this month found similar results, with 52 percent of Montanans opposing the impeachment inquiry.
Wednesday’s Mountain States Poll shows 54 percent of Montanans and 75 percent of Wyomingites approve of President Trump’s performance in office, with a similar party split.
“But you can see there’s a clear party split 90 percent approval among Republicans, that generally mirrors what you see nation-wide, and only a 12 percent approval among Democrats,” Adkins says.
The same day the poll started, the Trump administration withdrew U.S. forces from northern Syria, a decision the House of Representatives condemned by a vote of 354-60.
The majority of voters disapprove of Congress in both states.
“This isn’t surprising, most people disapprove of Congress, so 66 percent disapprove and only 21 percent of Montana voters approve,” Adkins says.
The numbers in Wyoming are similar, with 67 percent disapproving and 17 percent approving of congress.
The Mountain States Poll summarizes responses from a random sample of likely voters across Montana and now Wyoming, which was included for the first time in the 30 years the poll has been conducted. 215 Montana voters and 177 Wyoming voters responded to the poll.
The margin of error is 6.7 percent for Montana and 7.4 percent for the Wyoming sample.
According to an analysis of national polls by the website fivethirtyeight , at the time of the Mountain States Poll release, more Americans support impeachment than are against it.
The Mountain States Poll also shows many voters in Montana and Wyoming haven’t decided who they’ll vote for in state-wide races next year.
In the Montana Democratic primary for Governor, Lt. Governor Mike Cooney polled at 19 percent and Whitney Williams, who just announced her campaign earlier this month, polled at 11 percent.
“But as you can see 62 percent are undecided and remember this is a small sample of Democrats and there’s a long way to go on this race,” Adkins says.
Republican Greg Gianforte, Montana’s current U.S. House Representative, has a slight lead in the GOP gubernatorial primary with 33 percent. However, 32 percent of Montana Republicans don’t know who they will vote for.
The Mountain States Poll included Governor Steve Bullock in Montana’s Democratic Senate race. Bullock is currently running for president. The results surprised Adkins, with Bullock polling at 59 percent and Helena Mayor Wilmont Collins polling at 1 percent.
“Right now if Steve Bullock were to enter the race it seems like he would be the clear favorite based on name recognition,” Adkins says.
The majority of Wyoming voters have not decided who to vote for in both the GOP and Democratic primaries for Wyoming’s Senate race.
The Montana Democratic House primary had the most pronounced frontrunner with Kathleen Williams, polling at 69 percent. The majority of Republicans are undecided in the GOP House primary but current State Auditor Matt Rosendale leads the pack with 32 percent.
MSU-B Students from several different classes related to political science and marketing served as telephone surveyors for the poll, which was conducted in the Market Research Lab on campus earlier in October.