Have you had any unexpected bird sightings this winter? Maybe you saw birds in unexpected places or times. Or maybe birds you expected never showed up. You're not alone. Bird researchers – and an observant listener – have noticed, too. That listener wants to know: What do we know about how climate change is impacting birds, both in and out of Montana?
Austin Amestoy: Welcome to the Big Why, a series from Montana Public Radio where we find out what we can discover together. I’m your host, Austin Amestoy. This is a show about listener-powered reporting. We’ll answer your questions – large or small – about anything under the Big Sky. By Montanans for Montana, this is The Big Why.
Today, reporter Ellis Juhlin joins us to talk about birds, which is fitting for our resident bird nerd. Hi Ellis!
Ellis Juhlin: Hi Austin. It's true! As you well know from sharing an office with me, birds are my first love. Sorry to public radio.
So I was very excited to see this question from Missoula-based listener Beth Judy. Judy is a self described “plant person” but birds have flapped their way into her heart.
While she was out and about this fall, Judy kept seeing birds in unexpected places.
Beth Judy: I was over by Augusta, MT, and I went by a flock of bluebirds. And then I was over in Cascade, MT, and with friends, and we looked up in the sky, and there were all these sandhill cranes flying around in circles.
Austin Amestoy: Interesting! And how did Judy turn these observations into a Big Why question?
Ellis Juhlin: These sightings had Judy thinking about migration and how the seasons are shifting in our changing climate. And she wondered how that was affecting our feathered friends.
Beth Judy: Humans are dealing with extreme weather, and that's kind of starting to throw a wrench in our lives. Is that also happening to these amazing little animals?
Humans are dealing with extreme weather, and that's kind of starting to throw a wrench in our lives. Is that also happening to these amazing little animals?Beth Judy
Ellis Juhlin: So she wanted to know: What do we know about how climate change is impacting birds, both in and out of Montana?
Austin Amestoy: I can think of no one more suited to answer this flighty question, Ellis. Have you seen anything similar to what Judy's talking about?
Ellis Juhlin: I have. I spend what some would say is a ridiculous amount of time thinking about birds, watching birds, and talking about birds. And I’ve noticed things have been unusual this year.
Take my backyard, for example. I watch birds most mornings. But this year I noticed some of the usual winter visitors like dark-eyed juncos, didn’t show up in my yard until January and they still haven’t been around in their usual numbers.
Austin Amestoy: Well, you don’t have to be a birder to notice how abnormal this winter has been. Warm temperatures, very little snow, it’s hard to ignore. So who is researching birds and climate change?
Ellis Juhlin: To answer this question, I decided to break things down geographically. So for the local piece of the puzzle, I headed over to the University of Montana’s Bird Ecology Lab.
Megan Fylling: Seasonal fluctuations in migration are definitely happening in bird populations.
Ellis Juhlin: That’s Megan Fylling, she’s the lab’s co-director of research.
Megan Fylling: What can happen is, with climate change there are shifts in weather patterns and more extreme temperature ranges, more extreme weather events.
Austin Amestoy: Yeah, I bet those extremes would have an impact on birds. Changing how they migrate, maybe changing when and where they can find food, right?
Ellis Juhlin: Yes, exactly.
But a lot of the impacts are playing out in real time. She said last fall, she and other researchers did notice something out of the ordinary.
Megan Fylling: There wasn't a pronounced peak in migration. Typically, we'll see a peak around mid September to late September, and we really just saw sort of a dispersed pattern across the whole season.
Fylling told me that birds – and in particular some of our typical migratory species like ruby-crowned kinglets and dark-eyed juncos – didn’t get moving until later in the season than they would usually expect.
Megan Fylling: So to me, that suggests that the temperature was still comfortable for them, and they were able to find food before they migrated.
Austin Amestoy: So does a warmer fall just mean birds stay around longer? That doesn’t sound so bad.
Ellis Juhlin: Well it’s not exactly all good news, Austin. Yes, some bird species, Fylling explained, can adapt quickly to changing conditions, like birds that can eat a variety of different foods. Others, though, aren’t exactly generalists.
Species that will probably be hit the hardest by climate change are those that have adapted to narrow windows of resources.Megan Fylling
Megan Fylling: Species that will probably be hit the hardest by climate change are those that have adapted to narrow windows of resources.
Ellis Juhlin: To study these subtle shifts, Fylling and her colleagues have banded over 37,000 birds in Montana since 2006. Check out their tracking system and maps. And that’s just one lab. There are additional Montana sites run by other groups like Fish, Wildlife and Parks, and a whole network of biologists tracking birds across the country, and the world!
Austin Amestoy: I got to hang out with the Montana Osprey Project a couple summers ago while they banded osprey chicks. They were telling me they can use those bands to identify them when they get down to the Mexico area for the winter. It’s pretty amazing!
Ellis Juhlin: It really is. And because birds don’t adhere to human borders, these sorts of long-term datasets are one of the best tools biologists have to really track populations over time. Like those osprey chicks moving from Montana to Mexico.
Austin Amestoy: Okay so that gives us a better idea of what’s going on in Montana, but what about all the times of the year birds spend beyond this state?
Ellis Juhlin: That’s a great point Austin. When we talk about large avian datasets, most roads lead back to the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. It’s one of the largest bird research hubs in the world. You might know them from the Merlin Bird ID app.
To zoom out from just the Montana piece of the puzzle, I spoke with Andrew Farnsworth, a researcher at Cornell. He’s part of a national team that manages this incredible database called BirdCast where they use radar data to forecast and track bird migration in real time. Bird nerds like me check the BirdCast forecast just about every day of migration to learn when we can expect to see the most birds moving through.
Austin Amestoy: Cloudy with a chance of Canada geese, perhaps?
Ellis Juhlin: We often have Canada geese on the forecast. But this fall, that nationwide radar data did reflect what Fylling and her team were seeing on the ground.
Andrew Farnsworth: There were generally, sort of like, two thirds to half of the total cumulative migration traffic passed over the state in the fall.
Ellis Juhlin: But, he said there’s no cut and dry answer for exactly why that happened.
Andrew Farnsworth: Does that mean, you know, we're in some kind of a horrible situation where we had tremendous bird declines? Or did the entire movement actually shift to the east – which does look like sort of what happened. There was a big shift farther to the east into the Great Plains and beyond.
Does that mean, you know, we're in some kind of a horrible situation where we had tremendous bird declines? Or did the entire movement actually shift to the east – which does look like sort of what happened. There was a big shift farther to the east into the Great Plains and beyond.Andrew Farnsworth:
Austin Amestoy: Fascinating! So this one abnormal fall could mean lots of things?
Ellis Juhlin: Yes. Farnsworth says to really understand what’s going on, scientists need small-scale local data, like we get from the bird lab’s banding stations, along with these large scale datasets looking across the country over decades. One year does not tell us enough to definitively determine the cause. And that’s what he and others are working on now, establishing that baseline.
Austin Amestoy: Got it. So climate change is having an impact, but researchers still have a lot to learn. As a bird nerd yourself, and having all these conversations with leading bird scientists, are there any more specific examples you can give as of now?
Ellis Juhlin: Definitely. I’ve reported on black swifts, which are these really incredible birds that nest only under waterfalls. Climate change means earlier spring runoff and premature glacial melt, which means these birds are losing the places they nest.
There’s a similar story playing out for harlequin ducks. Those birds nest near fast-moving streams, where they swim up the stream to get their food. Both of these birds, along with many others, face changing habitats in our warming world.
Austin Amestoy: So, it’s not just movement and migration after all.
Ellis Juhlin: Exactly, Austin. It's a lot more complicated. We do know a lot about the threats ahead. And big picture, birds are already facing massive declines. One recent study found that bird populations have declined by about 3 billion across the globe since 1970.
Austin Amestoy: That’s a lot of birds.
Ellis Juhlin: Yeah, you could say that again. So, both these micro-level and nationwide datasets are really important to understand what’s already happening and what’s ahead. As researchers like Farnsworth and Fylling keep their eyes on the sky - and their datasets - this is something I”ll continue to report on, too.
Austin Amestoy: Your eyes are never off the skies for long. Thank you for sharing your reporting with us today.
Ellis Juhlin: Of course Austin!
Austin Amestoy: Now we want to know what makes you curious about Montana. Submit your questions below, or leave a message at 406-640-8933. Let's see what we can discover together! Find us wherever you listen to podcasts and help others find the show by sharing it and leaving a review.
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