With the Senate in the balance, Tester walks a tightrope as he seeks a fourth term

Sen. Jon Tester spoke at the Montana Democratic Party’s annual fundraising dinner in early March with a familiarity that comes after two-and-a-half decades in state politics.

“The Democratic Party is about family. And without my family, I certainly wouldn’t be able to do what I’m doing today and I wouldn’t be able to run again in 2024,” Tester said.

The senator known for his down-home demeanor gave a shout out to his wife, Sharla, and their upcoming 47th wedding anniversary. He thanked their son Shon for helping out on their Big Sandy farm.

And he talked about the importance of his work – protecting democracy, the rule of law, funding public education and infrastructure and expanding access to health care.

“The progress we make as Democrats in this state are hard fought, we have to earn them inch by inch,” Tester said.

That’s been especially true the last few years. Republicans have dominated recent elections and won a supermajority in the state Legislature. Tester is the last Democrat holding high office in Montana, and, if he loses, the state will be without a Democrat in its congressional delegation for the first time in 100 years.

Tester is pitching his usual moderate message to stay in congress. He said in an interview with MTPR that finding compromise is the best way to be effective in congress.

“There are Democrats and there are Republicans and independents, but we’re all Montanans. And Montanans understand that you need to work together,” Tester said. “They understand that the division is bad. And they appreciate when they have someone who’s willing to roll up their sleeves and get things done.”

The 2024 election will reveal whether an increasingly conservative Montana still wants to be one of a handful of states to elect U.S. senators from different parties.

A recent Emerson College poll found that about 14% of Montana Trump voters plan to split their tickets and also vote for Tester.

That could be attributed to Tester’s approach. Voters at times hear talking points from their lone Democrat in Congress they may be more familiar hearing from GOP candidates.

Tester brought legislation to prevent U.S. adversaries like China from buying land in the states, a policy which a Republican in the Montana Legislature previously proposed. He’s also been vocal on immigration, saying President Joe Biden’s Administration has failed to secure the southern border.

“He’s absolutely trying to distance himself from Washington, D.C. Democrats. “That’s smart, he absolutely has to do that to win here,” Jessi Bennion said.

Jessi Bennion is a Montana State University political scientist and said Tester is facing the fight of his professional life.

“He’s an incumbent, but this is a hard race,” Bennion said.

In three election wins, Tester has never earned more than 51% of the vote. He’s also never shared a ticket with former President Donald Trump, who won Montana by 16 points in 2020.

Viewing Montana as a path to control of the Senate, a GOP Super PAC has reportedly reserved $50 million for attack ads against Tester.

Shaylee Ragar

National and state GOP officials are throwing their support behind Republican frontrunner Tim Sheehy, a veteran and business owner in Belgrade. Sheehy has Donald Trump's endorsement and told a state GOP kickoff dinner crowd what’s at stake.

“This is election will determine control of the U.S. Senate, which will have a decades, or more, long effect on this country. President Trump will win the White House, but he will be severely limited in what he can do if doesn’t have the Senate to back him up,” Sheehy said.

The Cook Political Report says Montana’s 2024 U.S. Senate Race is a toss up.

“Both sides know that they have to put their all in to win. And so we’re going to see things that we’ve never seen before. And the U.S. Senate – that hangs in the balance,” Bennion said.

The vulnerable seat is driving Democrats to also pour money into the race. Tester has raised $25 million so far, more than he raised in total for his 2018 campaign.

Over his 17 years in Congress, Tester has risen through the ranks of the U.S. Senate, becoming chairman of the powerful defense appropriations subcommittee, chairman of veteran’s affairs and one of the top recipients of lobbyist money in recent campaign cycles.

Tester brushes off criticism on that last point as Republicans characterize him as a D.C. insider. He said he posts his daily schedule in the name of transparency and supports banning former members of congress from becoming lobbyists.

“This is part of the Republican strategy that they’ve always had to try to make me into something I’m not so they can run against that person because they can’t beat the dirt farmer from Big Sandy, Montana, who looks out for rural America,” Tester said.

Tester’s ardent base would agree.

But there are some progressives in Montana who also object to Tester’s policy stances.

Most recently, Montana’s senior senator was speaking at the annual state Democratic party fundraiser when he was interrupted by protesters opposing Israel's war against Hamas.

One protester stood, identified herself as a veteran and accused Tester of funding genocide.

The yelling from both protesters was quickly drowned out by chants of support for Tester and they were removed from the building by sheriffs’ deputies.

Tester appeared unfazed.

“Isn’t it great to be popular, isn’t it? Damn right it is,” Tester said.

Kimber Brown of Livingston organized the protest and said their requests for Tester are non-negotiable – a call for a ceasefire and an end to funding Israel’s military campaign in Gaza that’s killed more than 30,000 Palestinians.

“We won’t vote. We’re not going to put our name down on a ballot. We’re not going to walk up to that booth at all. And we’re definitely not going to vote for somebody that’s still evil in the lesser of two evils,” Brown said.

The protest against Tester was not the first of its kind.

Other Democrats have faced similar criticism from progressive voters. Hundreds of thousands chose to vote ‘uncommitted’ instead of for President Biden in recent state Democratic primaries.

Carroll College political scientist Jeremy Johnson said it’s likely that resolve won’t hold for many in November.

“But of course in a competitive race, small numbers matter,” Johnson said.

In an interview, Tester walked a tightrope while talking about the Israel-Hamas War.

“I believe that people oughta be able to make sure that their issues, their concerns are heard,” Tester said. “I think that’s part of what makes our democracy work. I’ve also been clear that Israel needs to follow international law, I’ve also been clear that Israel needs to defend themselves.”

As politicians run to the wings and polarization deepens among voters, Tester is standing firm in the middle.

Whether or not that stance can sway independent voters, like it has in the past, will reveal more about the direction of political tides in Montana.

Local democrats are trying to will those tides back in their direction.

While speaking at the Democratic party dinner, state Rep. Kim Abbott told the audience she believes Democrats will pick up more seats in the state Legislature this year after losing them last cycle.

“It’s because we have a guy at the top of the ticket who understands what the Legislature does, understands what it means to have good candidates up and down the ticket, is willing to put money into a coordinated campaign that will benefit all of us. And we didn’t have that last cycle. And we do not take it for granted,” Abbott said.

Democrats are counting on Tester’s style of politics to still be a winner in Montana come November. If it’s not, Republicans could hold more power in Montana than one party has in more than a century.