A text from former-Sen. Jon Tester has Democrats all shook up. University of Montana President Seth Bodnar may enter the Senate race. And the Democratic candidates for the western district House race have similar sounding campaign messages.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Montana Free Press Managing Editor Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin.
Sally Mauk Holly, former Senator Jon Tester made news this week with a text he sent that was leaked, and the text had really two messages, his criticism of his party and his endorsement of University of Montana President Seth Bodnar as a candidate to challenge Senator Steve Daines. And Bodnar, I hasten to add, has not announced his candidacy. But tell us more about this text, Holly.
Holly Michels Yeah, Sally, I think it's fair to say that this text lit up the political world in Montana over the last week or so. It was long. I think if I got a text this long, I would be worried I had done something wrong or was in trouble. And it circulated to a lot of Democrats around the state.
It starts with Tester saying that he's had to run races both for the state Senate and U.S. Senate by distancing himself from the Democratic Party. He called the party 'poison' for his last two races, trying to get reelected. And he didn't say that the Democratic Party was the only reason he lost to Republican Tim Sheehy in 2024, but he called it 'a hell of an anvil'.
Then he transitions into talking about Bodnar, saying he has all these things that make him a great candidate; his family, business background, the UM presidency, that he's in the military and a Rhodes scholar. And then Tester references Jim Messina, who's a long-time Democratic adviser in Montana and nationally. He worked with Obama, who Tester says told Bodnar he can't win as a Democrat and would be crazy to run. Something that Tester said other Democrats have told Bodnar as well. Then Tester references some polling, though he doesn't say what specific poll, showing a Democrat can't beat Republican Steve Daines this year for that Senate race, but that a generic independent candidate could perform better than a Democrat.
Tester says he's been encouraging of Bodnar's run, not because of any political party, but Bodnar himself, saying he's always advocated for an individual over any party affiliation. But then Tester said he can't encourage a Bodnar run if there's so many reservations from people that he respects, saying that politics and campaigns are a meat grinder that would destroy a person's life, and they've been one of his biggest regrets.
Then Tester makes a reference to Reilly Neill, who's one of the Democrats who's announced a campaign against Daines, saying that 'We can watch her talk about trans rights, democracy and bathrooms.' That sounds like a reference to issues that he thinks could be problematic for a Democrat to emphasize in Montana. And then the last line of this text is a little bit of a snarky line saying, 'Neill will lose by 25 points, but she's a Democrat'. Sort of implying the party will just back a Democrat who he thinks will lose.
[Montana Free Press: Bodnar plans Senate run as an independent, and Tester’s apparent support angers Democrats in Montana]
Sally Mauk Rob, in an apparent attempt to walk back his text comment that the Democratic Party was 'poison', Tester had this to say this week in the Grounded podcast he co-hosts with Maritsa Georgiou:
"The headline implies that I no longer support the Democratic Party, which couldn't be further from the truth. I've spent the last 25 years, quite frankly, working to make sure that the Democratic Party can win. And that not only goes for Montana, but it's around the country. And by the way, I failed. Failed miserably."
Sally Mauk And he went on to say, Rob, that he will continue to work to elect Democratic candidates, but he may have burned some bridges with that text. What do you think?
Rob Saldin That's right, Sally. And the overall situation, I think, a couple things can be true at the same time. One thing is that the text was a bit impolitic insofar as Tester is apparently attempting to build support for his preferred senate candidate. And all the more so when Tester and Bodnar will presumably be making a big ask of Montana Democrats, and that is to support Bodnar's Independent run and to not nominate a candidate to run under the party's banner. So there's that. But the second thing that's also true here is that there's nothing I see that's inaccurate about Tester's evaluation of the situation. The Democratic label was, in fact, clearly a problem for him. I've been making that point in various ways on this program with you for over a decade now. Another point Tester emphasized is that there's essentially no path for a generic Democrat to defeat Daines. Again, true. Tester also suggests the party's points of emphasis, as you recounted, Holly, are out of step with Montana voters. That was a bit of a blunt formulation he had there, but once again, that's true. So it was a little hyperbolic, a little emotional, I think even at times, but his basic diagnosis strikes me as accurate.
Sally Mauk Rob, Republicans have to be popping champagne corks over all this. I mean, whatever the truth of the matter is, to have it stated so bluntly by the senior Democrat in the state has to be giving them all kinds of jollies over this.
Rob Saldin Well, they're in such a strong position in the state of Montana right now, Sally, and this is evidence of that, but obviously they're probably happy to see this internal strife in the party, no doubt about it.
Sally Mauk Holly, what do we exactly know so far about UM President Seth Bodnar possibly entering the Senate race?
Holly Michels Sally, I think me and every other journalist in Montana would love to know a lot more about this, especially the timing. We don't know a ton about this right now, about when Bodnar would make an announcement. Obviously we talked about last week on the show, we've had candidates announce for the Senate race. Obviously there's an official filing deadline where people can first start getting their names on the ballot with the Secretary of State. That period opens February 17th. Sometimes we see candidates make a big show of walking down the hallway on the second floor in the Capitol to drop off their paperwork. Sometimes we don't. That filing deadline closes March 4th, so that's when we'll know definitively. If Bodnar's running, he needs to have his name in by then. These kinds of campaigns can roll out in various ways. Sometimes people with a campaign reach out to press to get embargoed stories written to coordinate with a big announcement. Sometimes they just show up in Helena and file paperwork. Sometimes there's a post on X or other social media or any number of ways. So I think I'm curious to see what's happening there. Tester in that text told the initial recipient of it that they could share his message. So maybe to Rob's point that he just made about Tester and Bodnar needing to make a big ask of Democrats when Bodnar jumps in, if he does jump in, that text could be a trial balloon to see how things go. Like you said, there's a podcast where Tester discussed this. There's been tons of coverage in the press across Montana. So I'd be curious to see how much they're looking at that to decide their next steps now.
[Missoulian: Tester rips Democrats, signals support for UM president as best bet to challenge Daines]
Sally Mauk Rob, Senator Tester thinks Bodnar would be a great candidate, but the head of the state's most liberal college from the state's bluest city has a tough sled to win a statewide race.
Rob Saldin Yeah, those are some issues, Sally. You know, it is easy to see why Tester thinks Bodnar could be a strong candidate. His resume is very impressive and so forth. But there's no doubt it's a real uphill climb. The rationale here, of course, is that an independent has a better chance of defeating Daines than a Democrat and there is a model for this. Just a couple years ago, there was an independent Senate candidate in deep red Nebraska who didn't win, but way overperformed and came reasonably close. I'm far from convinced that that'll work in Montana, but it's a plausible theory of the case and it's something that hasn't been tried before. But at the same time, the problems are also clear here. The first to me is that in that Nebraska race in 2024, the Democrats didn't nominate their own candidate. They supported the Independent. So are Montana Democrats willing to do that this time for Bodnar? Early signs suggest there's going to be some serious resistance, and if they aren't willing to support Bodnar, it's just really hard to see how this makes any sense. I don't see any way you can split the non-Republican vote in Montana and have any hope of winning.
The other obvious problem, which you point to, Sally, is that in our populist moment, Bodnar's resume, as impressive as it is, it's a bit of a double-edged sword insofar as it's littered with places and institutions that are, reasonably or not, coded as elite. From Missoula and UM to West Point and Oxford, the corporate world, GE, many of these places and institutions, very much including the institutions of higher education, are viewed with suspicion by a lot of Americans and a lot Montanans right now. Of course, none of that is Bodnar's fault, but nonetheless, a number of his resume highlights just don't necessarily translate smoothly into the political realm in the way that they would have in previous political eras.
Sally Mauk He's not a dirt farmer.
Rob Saldin No, he's not. No, he is not
Sally Mauk While switching from the Senate to the House, the four Democratic candidates in the Western District hoping to unseat Ryan Zinke each have campaign ads out online and let's listen to some excerpts from those ads beginning with Russell Cleveland.
Russell Celeveland 'We're done with politicians who put profits in partisan politics ahead of people. That includes getting rid of Ryan Zinke, sending him back to his house in Santa Barbara, California. It's time to reclaim our state, to protect what is ours.'
Sally Mauk And here's Ryan Busse.
Ryan Busse 'We sent politicians like Ryan Zinke to D.C. They went to work cutting deals for billionaires. Zinke let tariffs and the Argentina bailout hurt Montana ranchers and farmers. He votes to make our healthcare way more expensive, just so he can give those billionaires more tax breaks'.
Sally Mauk And here's candidate Matt Rains.
Matt Rains 'My neighbors were promised lower prices and the government that said it cared about them. Instead, they're getting tariffs that crush our ranchers and farmers. Higher prices for everything.'
Sally Mauk And finally, Sam Forstag.
Sam Forstag 'I'm running for Congress because I'm done pretending the rich and powerful are gonna take care of us. We take care of us. And we deserve one of us fighting for Montanans in Congress.'
Sally Mauk Well, Rob, I'm having trouble spotting any difference in these messages other than the background music.
Rob Saldin A lot of similar messaging around how bad Ryan Zinke is and this dichotomy between the everyday people and the oppressive rich elites. One issue with that message that I think Democrats are going to struggle with a bit in terms of breaking through is that for a lot of Montanans, it's the Democratic Party that's the party of the elites, not the Republicans. And this has been one of the key shifts in American politics over the last, you know, say 15, 20 years. It's happened gradually, but unmistakably. And it is now Democrats who are widely associated with affluent college-educated professionals and you know, that's not exactly the billionaires, but it is the class that kind of sets the tone culturally. And culture matters a lot. In terms of separation between the candidates, I mean, that is obviously going to be an issue, but I do think Sam Forstag had an effective start and has kind of staked out a claim to being the Democratic Socialist in this race. And this DSA faction, which of course is associated with Bernie Sanders and AOC and Mumdani and New York and the economically populist left of the party in general, it's very well organized. And we see that in the launch within hours of Forstag's announcement he rolled out this endorsement from Sanders. It was followed by a list of legislators who were endorsing him, mostly on the left of the party. There's a constituency there, especially among young people. I'm not totally convinced it's quite the right message for Montana. But like Bodnar's potential Senate candidacy, one thing you can say about this DSA lane is that it hasn't been tried in Montana. It's a fresh approach. It's different from what we've seen statewide Montana Democrats run on. Including Monica Tranel and Kathleen Williams in their combined four runs for Congress. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Sally Mauk Interesting for sure and the 2026 campaign season is barely underway and it's already pretty spicy and we'll see what the next week brings. Holly and Rob, thank you.
While MTPR is licensed to the University of Montana, no UM officials or station management reviewed this coverage or had any editorial input.
Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Montana Free Press Managing Editor Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Fridays at 5:45 p.m. during All Things Considered, or Saturdays at 9:45 a.m., before Weekend Edition. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
