Meteorologist Dave Noble says July’s precipitation totals were not normal.
"For example, Missoula received 165% of rainfall in July. Kalispell had 143% of normal, and West Glacier had the sixth wettest July on record since 1948.”
And it’s not just western Montana. Rain and cooler-than-normal temperatures have been regularly interspersed among this summer’s hot and dry summer days from northwest Montana to the Great Plains.
“July didn’t really play by the rules,” Noble says.
August may go rogue too. Noble’s expecting similar unsettled weather for the next several weeks. If it pans out, that could be good news for what’s left of this summer’s wildfire season.
What’s causing this summer’s unusual weather? Changes in the jet stream over the northern Pacific Ocean have so far prevented heat waves from developing and stalling over the Northern Rockies this year.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows no drought in south-eastern Montana and portions of south-central Montana. West-central Montana, however, shows a large hook-shaped pocket of extreme drought.
Weather Service Hydrologist, LeeAnn Allegretto says this summer’s abundant rainfall, so far, amounts to a drop in the bucket there.
“What we would really like to see to help mitigate the drought conditions – or at least improve them temporarily – is this kind of weather over and over and over,” Allegretto says.
Long-term seasonal forecasts are complex, but Dave Noble says the warm waters in the north Pacific may lead to a slow start to winter in November and December. Longer-range models, however, show a chance for wetter and maybe colder, Arctic events in January and February.
