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Montana politics, elections and legislative news

Incumbency Matters: Prof. David Parker Talks Montana Politics

Political science professor David Parker, at Montana State University has a new book out. It’s called Battle for the Big Sky. In it, he says, “Much of the existing scholarship suggests that campaigns don’t matter much at all.”

Interviewed at his office recently, Parker acknowledged, “It does seem kind of weird, right? You look at the cost of presidential campaigns, and, wait a minute, political scientists say they don’t matter. They basically take the view of MacBeth, right? It’s all ‘full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”

Why? Because, most of the time, voters behave predictably, and incumbents get re-elected.

“People vote their partisan beliefs,” Parker says. “People that are intensely interested in politics show up, and campaigns, if they matter, matter only at the margins.”

And in Congressional elections, Parker says, more than 80% of the time, that means the candidate who already holds the office is going to beat his or her challenger.

But it’s not automatic. He says that for members of Congress to win the statewide name recognition and big fundraising advantages that strong incumbents bring to an election cycle, they have to establish their own particular brand with voters, what some political scientists call a “home style.”

“This is a style that they cultivate during their entire representational relationship, Even when there’s not a campaign going on,” Parker says. “This is when they come home, they talk to constituents. Constituents want to see this particular piece of them, and they affect this particular piece.”

Senator Jon Tester, for example, established his image as an affable working farmer who is a champion for veterans. Conrad Burns portrayed himself as a telecom policy expert who was always looking out for the interests of rural people.

“Some cynical people might say they’re putting on an act,” Parker says, “but in a lot of ways I think the home really reflects their personal strengths. The key thing I think in any home style to be successful, it has to be genuine. Because we're such a small state, we know these people. We talk to these people, we meet these people, and people can smell when somebody’s not genuine.

In Montana’s delegation, Congressman Ryan Zinke has the biggest challenge in establishing a home style, or personal brand. He’s never held statewide office, and got most of his votes from Western Montana, where he’s from. He’s also only got two years before his seat is up.

“One might think his natural thing to do is stress veterans’ affairs,” Parker says, given Zinke’s service as a Navy SEAL. But, “wait a minute, Jon Tester has very effectively carved out the issue space in terms of veterans. So, to get attention, he’s got to find out a way to get noticed. So, what he needs to do is think about what can be distinctive, and what is not being effectively done here by the other members of the delegation that I can carve out as my own independent space.”

Senator Steve Daines has more time than Zinke to establish his personal brand with voters, and has already had two years as Montana’s Congressman to demonstrate what his priorities are in representing the state.

“If he’s smart, what he’s going to do is he’s going to basically take his successes in the House and move forward. On the other hand, as a House member, he’s served in relative obscurity, compared to the senators in the state. It seems to be he’s kind of moving in the direction of small business issues, and it looks like some energy policy and that kind of stuff. If you think about rural issues through the lens of small business and energy, I think that could be very powerful and effective for him.”

Daines and Zinke now have six and two years respectively to build name recognition. To do things that get them noticed by the media, and to serve constituents as individuals and in groups. And to raise campaign money.

That gives them a huge advantage over anyone who will challenge them. Parker says Amanda Curtis actually did a very good job of establishing her brand in this election cycle, even though she lost to Daines

“She’s raised her name recognition. She raised about $700,000, which is a very respectable amount in a short period of time. It’s not a lot for a Senate race, but for a House race it could be.

“It’s not that her representational style was ineffective,” Parker says, “the problem was, Amanda Curtis had to run a campaign under ridiculously crazy circumstances, where she comes in in August and all the sudden is the nominee out of nowhere, and no one knows who she is. So I wouldn’t take that as an example of that home style not working.

Curtis has said she’s leaving the door open to future political campaigns, but hasn’t said specifically what office or offices she might be interested in. Parker says she could be well positioned to run against Zinke in 2016, but thinks she might be more interested in campaigning for state superintendent of education.

Eric Whitney is NPR's Mountain West/Great Plains Bureau Chief, and was the former news director for Montana Public Radio.
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