The weather pattern El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the Rockies, but there could be a few surprises this winter.
The National Weather Service in Missoula posted its winter outlook this past weekend and El Niño was front and center. The video, narrated by meteorologist Brian Conlan, opens with this reminder:
“Remember, no two El Niños are alike, so if you remember the effects from one past one, it may not work out exactly the same this time."
Scientists say this winter’s El Niño could be one of the most powerful ever recorded. Conlan points out that doesn’t mean impacts will be stronger than normal, just that there’s now a better chance for widespread impacts.
El Niño typically results in warmer and drier winters for the Northern Rockies. According to Conlan, that could lead to more frequent valley inversions.
“Valley inversions cause valley fog and low stratus, which could affect air travel, create problems for the morning commutes, and also freezing rain. You trap that cold air in the valleys and then you have warm, moist air coming over it, any precipitation falling into the valleys could freeze on contact. That’s the worst-case scenario.”
An earlier than normal flood season is another possible impact. That’s because rain from storms moving into the Rockies from southwest could run off of whatever snow collects in the mountains. That could fill creeks and rivers sooner than the typical springtime flood season.
