It’s tempting to assume Montana’s summer wildfire season is going to be severe following our windy, dry and warmer-than-average winter. The official outlook released last week, however, paints a more nuanced picture.
Dan Borsum is a meteorologist with the U.S. Wildland Fire Service who participated in Gov. Gianforte’s 2026 fire season briefing. He’s confident that eastern Montana is facing above-normal fire potential through July.
"And then in July we begin to see concerns develop in southwest Montana after the curing of some fuels, and that spreads into the Bitterroot in August,” Borsum says.
The rest of the state, where many areas benefitted from last week’s heavy rain, is facing a ‘normal’ wildfire season – so far.
A lot of unknowns are at play. This past winter’s mid elevation snowpack peeled off much earlier than normal.June could be particularly warm in Montana. The development of a powerful El Niño in the eastern Pacific Ocean might push rain into Montana by late summer.
"Sometimes that moisture gets infused with the monsoon and then we end up having better monsoon activity than normal. It’s a little bit of a wildcard," Borsum says.
Other state, local and federal fire officials vowed seamless interagency cooperation this summer and aggressive initial attack on new fire starts.
Gov. Gianforte closed the briefing by noting three quarters of last summer’s wildfire were human-caused. He asks Montanans to recreate responsibly and prepare their homes and property before fire presents a threat.
Montana hits a record for earliest snowmelt
May’s warmth took a big toll on what was left of Montana’s snowpack. According to the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service in Bozeman, most of the state’s snowpack has already melted and transitioned into runoff.
Most of the state’s remote, automated weather stations that tally snowpack had the earliest or second earliest melt-out date on record.
West of the Continental Divide remains the only region of the state currently drought free. Drought is widespread east of the Divide. Extreme drought has intensified in the southwest part of the state and is expanding into eastern Montana.
A wet June could help improve the state’s summer streamflow forecast, but full recovery is unlikely for most areas east of the Divide.
