High interest rates and a dip in out-of-state tourism are pumping the brakes on what has been red-hot economic growth in Montana. That’s according to a University of Montana research group.
The 2024 Economic Outlook Seminar drew hundreds of business owners, government officials and researchers to a Missoula ballroom. The head of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research told attendees that Montana and the nation seem to be on-target for an economic “soft landing.”
Patrick Barkey said that after explosive earnings gains in 2021, growth will continue to slow, but a recession is unlikely.
“I don’t think a slow-growth forecast is anything to be really euphoric about,” Barkey told MTPR. “I do think that we put to rest the idea that the economy’s in a bad place.”
Presenters from the research group said Montana’s major industries, including construction, retail, healthcare and hospitality remained strong in 2023. But, high interest rates have driven down mortgage applications, and tourism and migration have cooled. That’s bringing the state’s economic growth “back to earth.”
Barkey said stabilizing growth, slowing inflation and predicted interest rate cuts in 2024 may improve consumer attitudes toward the economy. That’s backed up by a recent University of Michigan survey that found consumer sentiment is at its highest levels in more than two years.
