An economic downturn of greater magnitude than that seen in 2008 recession could be felt in Montana in the wake of the novel coronavirus pandemic. That’s according to a preliminary analysisfrom the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana.
The report released Tuesday forecasts the Montana economy in 2020 could see employment drop 7.3 percent, a loss of more than 50,000 jobs.
The analysis says job losses will be greatest in the northwest region of the state, but every region will experience a significant downturn. Accommodations, food, retail, and arts and entertainment industries are forecast to feel the greatest impact.
![Dec. 2019 vs. April 2020 Forecast Comparison - Employment Difference by Region (thousands).](https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/b0ee8fb/2147483647/strip/true/crop/976x696+0+0/resize/880x628!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Flegacy%2Fsites%2Fkufm%2Ffiles%2F202004%2FBBER-employment-by-region-04-20_0.png)
Stronger economic growth is expected in 2021, and to a lesser extent 2022, which analysts say will mostly close the gap and bring economic activity back within medium-term growth projections made before the crisis.
The BBER report says even an optimistic forecast puts the state economy in a hole that will take years to refill.