According to the latest U.S Drought Monitor map, Montana’s entire southern tier, as well a respectable slice of the state’s mid-section, is drought free. Conditions across northern Montana aren’t as encouraging.
Drought expert Michael Downey says, “I’m surprised they’ve deteriorated as much as they have across the north section. We still have some extreme drought and severe drought across much of that area and of course, all of it is at least in moderate drought.”
Downey, the Drought Planning Coordinator for the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, says the state’s northern tier received plenty of precipitation from February through early June.
"And then it stopped," Downey says. "Especially on the east side of the Divide, we’re really dependent on rains through June. It’s not uncommon for things to shut off in early July, but essentially it was a month short.”
With summer in the rear-view mirror, forecasters are now looking for clues about potential precipitation trends for the rest of this fall through winter. El Niño looms large. That’s a periodic warming of ocean waters that tends to produce warmer-than-average winters across the northern U.S.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday said it’s favoring a strong El Niño late this fall into winter. However, NOAA also points out not all El Niños are the same and other factors can influence winter weather.