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Campaign Beat: New poll puts Sheehy in the lead, new audio puts him in the hot seat

Senate candidate Tim Sheehy leads incumbent Jon Tester in a new poll. That lead might shrink after audio surfaced of Sheehy making a racist comment about Native Americans. Campaign ads in that high profile Senate race feature familiar themes. And, the two leading candidates for governor may soon square off on the debate stage.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin.

Sally Mauk: Holly, we're two months out from the general election, and all eyes are on Montana's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. An AARP poll out just this week shows Sheehy with a healthy eight point lead. That's a big change, Holly, from an earlier poll showing the race in a statistical tie.

Holly Michels: It is Sally. From the kinds of polls that we look at in this race that aren't overtly partisan one way or the other, this is the biggest lead Sheehy has had. Like you said, he's up 8 points — that's if you're looking at the full ballot, so that's including third-party candidates. There is a margin of error in the poll of 4 points, so things could be a little closer than that but it's still a divide between the two.

Campaign Beat airs Saturdays at 9:45 a.m.; online Friday afternoons.
Campaign Beat airs Saturdays at 9:45 a.m.; online Friday afternoons.

One notable thing from the poll is Sheehy has a 16 point lead when you're looking at people aged 50 and older, while Tester's up by just one point among voters, 18 to 49. The poll notes that older voters make up the biggest chunk of those who cast ballots in Montana, so that lead among older voters is pretty important for Sheehy.

This poll does show Tester's pretty much locked down all the voters that identify as Democrats. Sheehy doesn't have quite the same support among those who identify as Republicans.

Tester is also leading a little bit among independents, but the poll notes that the overall strong Republican lean of Montana means that Sheehy still holds that lead overall.

There's also a pretty decent divide between men and women in this poll. Men break for Sheehy by about 19 points, where women preferred Tester by 3.

The other thing that really stood out to me in this poll is just how much ground Sheehy has made up in name recognition. If you remember back to polls much earlier in this race, they showed that Sheehy wasn't really all that well known. But now this poll shows that only 7% of people who responded to the poll either didn't know Sheehy or had no opinion of him. So, he's definitely made up that gap.

Sally Mauk: Rob, something else happened this week that could impact Sheehy's big lead. The Char-Koosta News released audio of Sheehy speaking at a campaign fundraiser in Shelby last year. And he was talking about roping and branding with members of the Crow Reservation. And here's the clip. 

Tim Sheehy: 'And I rope and brand with them every year, you know, down there. So, great way to bond with all the Indians, to be out there while they're drunk at 8 a.m. and you're roping together (laughter). '

Sally Mauk: Rob, Sheehy is repeating for laughs, a racist trope about drunken Indians, and tribal leaders across the state are demanding an apology.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, it's, clearly not in keeping with the kind of disposition that we'd want and reasonably expect in a U.S. senator. So, obviously he should apologize, but of course, he's a Trump acolyte and one of the rules in Trump world is that you don't apologize, ever, no matter how disgraceful your behavior. So we probably shouldn't hold our breath on that one.

Apart from the matter of basic decency, Sally, it's something of an unforced error. The Crow have been supportive of Republicans in the past, and there are votes down there that he presumably is trying to win. That said, it's also likely the case that comments like this are well received by certain elements of the contemporary Republican base, so it may not be as big of an electoral liability for him as some may think.

Zooming out, Sally, this to me is another example of Sheehy just not being a very good candidate. He's probably better than Rosendale would have been, and he's certainly better than a number of recent GOP candidates around the country, but that's a pretty low bar.

Aside from Sheehy's central casting appearance and his status as a veteran, there's been a lot of cringe. We've talked about a lot of the things that have emerged about Sheehy. There were plenty more over the summer, and now there's this.

The thing is, though, that none of this stuff seems to be making much of a difference. So, I'm not sure that we should expect this incident to be any different. At the end of the day, wearing the right jersey and rattling off a few standard issue talking points that have apparently been distributed to Republicans across the country — that might be enough. Sheehy at least sure seems to think it will be.

Sally Mauk: Speaking of standard-issue talking points, Holly, a PAC supporting Tim Sheehy, has this TV ad on the air now.

Sheehy Spot ANNOUNCER: Tim Sheehy is fighting to restore common sense to Washington. [SHEEHY] 'And what Montanans think is common sense is pretty simple. It's not complicated. They want a secure border, safe streets, cheap gas.' [ANNOUNCER] And Tim Sheehy will fight rising inflation by supporting policies that rein in out-of-control federal spending, lower taxes and repeal job killing regulations. Call Tim Sheehy and thank him for putting Montana families first.'

Sally Mauk: And this ad, Holly, hits the two themes Republican candidates across the country are running on, and that's border security and inflation.

Holly Michels: Yeah, Sally, like Rob just said, there's Republican messaging that we see across the country right now and this is right in that wheelhouse. This ad is part of what's doing the work out there, raising Montanans' awareness of who Tim Sheehy is. There's tens of millions of dollars in advertising. I think you can't turn on the TV without just seeing pretty much only Tester and Sheehy ads. This ad is part of that.

It's hitting on those issues that we've seen, they're ranked top of mind for Montana voters in this election. We hear about the border and immigration in this ad, and then that AARP poll we talked about earlier. And this is similar to, I think, every other poll I've seen this cycle. Immigration and border security are ranked as the number one issue for voters in the state, and it's not even close. It's especially critical to those 50 and older and among Republicans.

Then second and third in that poll are inflation and rising prices. And then jobs and the economy, which, like you said, is also very prominent in this ad and fits in with that nationalization.

On the border, Montana is a northern border state obviously, but the southern border has really dominated the Senate race so far here. I think it's fair to say there are major issues with fentanyl in the state that comes through Mexico, but in ads like these, we just see that classic border wall image we've all become familiar with. And it feels really more nationally focused, not about any issues we're seeing specific in Montana.

Border and immigration have also really permeated some of the down ballot races. I was at a campaign event for Gov. Greg Gianforte last month, and even for his race, a really large chunk of the questions asked of him were also about immigration policies and the southern border.

And this is an issue where Tester works really hard to point out in this race that he parts from his party nationally on some things related to border policy, but it's not really clear how much of that message is actually getting through.

And then on the economy, this is one that's been really interesting for me to watch this cycle. If you're covering a state level Republican candidate event, you're going to hear that the economy is great. It's booming. Things are looking really well in Montana. But then when you switch over to a federal level candidate like Sheehy, you're going to hear them say that things are really not looking good. They're very critical of Harris, tying her policies to Tester's and say that they're the reason things aren't so rosy, especially pointing to inflation.

And it is clear from that polling that these issues really resonate with voters. So, I think we're going to keep hearing about them. I think that's pretty frustrating for Democrats who are hoping things like abortion and health care might drive some turnout this fall, but we're seeing those issues ranked much, much lower in the polling.

Sally Mauk: It is a contrast in messaging between the governor's race and the U.S. Senate race, that's for sure.

Rob, Jon Tester has an ad out once again emphasizing his Montana roots:

TESTER AD: [Tester] 'This barn was built by my granddad and his neighbors. Then they build another one down the road. Montana has always been about people looking out for each other, but wealthy newcomers, frankly, don't care what happens to the rest of us. They're driving up home prices and rent. Crime and fentanyl are exploding in our communities. It's high time to lower housing costs so we can continue to raise our families here. I'm standing tough against anyone trying to change Montana's way of life. I'm Jon Tester and I approve this message to defend Montana. Always'.

Sally Mauk: And Rob, this is a common theme Montana Democrats are running on, that the ultra-rich — like Tim Sheehy — are trying to take over and destroy "The Montana way of life."

Rob Saldin: Yeah Sally, and there was a time when this worked pretty well, but it does seem a little bit like the Democrats' fairy dust on this issue seems to be wearing off a bit in recent cycles.

I think the problem for Montana Democrats is that the composition of the parties at the national level has changed. We've had a realignment, and it's a realignment that's been happening slowly for a long time but has accelerated pretty quickly during the Trump years.

The basic dynamic is that Republicans have made major inroads into the working class, and they're absolutely dominating rural areas. Democrats, meanwhile, have become the party of college educated professionals. And while this shift has boosted Democrats in places like Colorado and Virginia and in our most dynamic urban centers, it's worked to the advantage of Republicans in places like the Dakotas and West Virginia, and increasingly, Montana.

So, this is the challenge the state's Democrats face and it's not altogether clear that trotting out the old talking points is going to do the trick, given this realignment of our parties, and given that our politics has become so nationalized and so focused on culture and so forth. That said, Tester has a lot more authenticity and credibility on this stuff than does the national party.

One other thing I note here Sally; the biographical bit at the beginning, — on its own terms — it’s kind of good stuff, and it hits on a core element of who Tester is, why he's had this longstanding connection to Montanans, and it speaks to one understanding about what it is that makes Montana special. But if I were on the Tester campaign, I'd be a little nervous that they feel the need to run this ad now in September 2024. It makes me wonder if the Tester campaign has reason to think that voters have forgotten why they like Jon Tester. Because you'd hope, I think, that after all these years that you could count on that story. The biographical details of who Jon Tester is, you know, that's already baked into the cake. You'd hope that those kinds of things aren't the type of thing that you have to be spending money and time on at this point in the campaign.
 

Sally Mauk: Lastly, Holly, it looks like the two main candidates for governor, incumbent Republican Greg Gianforte and Democratic challenger Ryan Busse may meet on the debate stage next month.

Holly Michels: Yeah, Sally. We had some drama around the potential for a debate in the governor's race. Gianforte, after not having committed to participate when invitations for debates first went out a couple months ago, he did say on the deadline recently that he was not going to debate opponent Ryan Busse because he didn't feel that Busse was a serious candidate.

Busse, of course, strongly rejected that, pointing out, among other things, that in the last fundraising period he brought in more money than Gianforte did.

Gianforte countered by saying he would consider a debate if Busse released 10 years of his tax returns, as Gianforte had previously done, to the Associated Press. Busse had declined to do that initially. But then he turned around and quickly did release those returns and now Gianforte has said that he welcomes a debate.

Those tax returns, by the way, showed Gianforte made about $23 million dollars between 2018 and 2022, mostly off investments. Busse's show that he and his wife earned about $260,000 a year.

We don't have anything firmly set in the books yet on debates, but we are looking at two previously scheduled ones — that's for Montana PBS and the Montana Television Network that would be in October.

I think it'd be pretty notable if debates didn't happen. No one I've spoken with can remember a time when governor candidates didn't debate, and those debates would be pretty critical in this election for voters to learn more, especially about Busse, he's a political newcomer and he's really trying to cut through the noise of the Senate race this cycle. That's been hard to do, and I think voters would really see two very different men on the debate stage.

Through this campaign, Gianforte has rarely mentioned his opponent at all, while Busse's been very aggressive in his criticisms of the governor. I think it would be a pretty interesting debate to watch.

Sally Mauk: And of course, the challenger always wants to do a debate, and the incumbent would prefer not to, but we'll see what happens.

Rob and Holly, it's great talking politics with you again. Thanks.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

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Retired in 2014 but still a presence at MTPR, Sally Mauk is a University of Kansas graduate and former wilderness ranger who has reported on everything from the Legislature to forest fires.
University of Montana Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin appears on MTPR's political analysis programs 'Campaign Beat' and 'Capitol Talk'.
Lee Newspapers State News Bureau Chief Holly Michels appears on MTPR's political analysis programs 'Campaign Beat' and 'Capitol Talk'.
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