Migrant family draws ire in the Flathead; Tester backs immigration bill; Will there be a special session?

Republicans clamor over the arrival of a migrant family in the Flathead. Tester signs on to a Republican immigration bill. And calls for a special legislative session are racking up.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. MTPR News Director Corin Cates-Carney is sitting in for Sally today. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Corin Cates Carney: The arrival of one Venezuelan family to the Flathead Valley has been followed by many Republicans in Montana calling for changes to immigration policy, both here and nationally. There have been a lot of allegations and political stumping surrounding this issue. Holly, you've reported on it. What do we actually know about this situation?

Holly Michels: What we know is that a migrant family arrived in Kalispell, and that a nonprofit organization called Valley Neighbors was alerted to them and helped them. In reporting on this, we use the Associated Press style guide to guide what language we use, which is why the Republican Representative Ryan Zinke, and other Republican politicians called the family illegal immigrants. We don't use that term unless it's in a direct quotation relevant to the story. But in this case, it's not clear why Zinke or other Republicans who are engaging around this issue use that term. I asked Zinke's office how they made that determination about the family's status. They referred me to the Flathead County sheriff, but a member of the sheriff's office told me in an email that while at one point, the family was referred to the sheriff's office, no one from the office ever made contact with them or met them, so it's not clear what evidence that claim is tied to. The Flathead County sheriff also put out a two-page letter saying his office has had increased contact with people who do not have residency status, but didn't have data available about that, though the sheriff said they are preparing that. The sheriff also raised concerns about strains on local resources. The list of services people will be eligible for is very narrow and generally limited to emergency services or community level type services. I think this is a situation we're probably going to be hearing a lot more about and immigration broadly in this election year, so we'll be keeping an eye on what unfolds from here.

Corin Cates Carney: Separate from any specific family getting drawn into the political debate, immigration policy and border security is something we've seen a lot of candidates bring up. Rob, I'm wondering if you can speak to any differences, if any, you see, and how the situation at the southern border is fueling political talking points in Montana compared to other states or nationally?

Rob Saldin: Well, what stands out to me are the similarities, not the differences. Big picture, Corin, I think there are three very powerful macro forces shaping American politics, all of which we've talked about at various points on this show. Those are polarization shifts in the composition of the party's voter base, notably the urban rural divide and finally the nationalization of our politics. And you look at the border issue. This is a great illustration of the way our politics has become so nationalized. The way we see this issue play out politically in Montana is essentially the same as how it's playing out around the country. It's just as prominent in campaign messaging. The rhetoric around the issue is the same, and so on. Now there are, of course, some differences, right? The governors of Florida and Texas, for instance, aren't sending busloads of people up here to Montana, and we don't have some of the immediate issues faced by the states right along the southern border. But just politically, the prominence of the issue, it's centrality to Republican messaging, the way we see it featured in campaigns and so forth - it's playing out here the same way it's playing out across the country. It's a great issue for Republicans. And that's, of course, why they're talking about it so much. There are real, legitimate problems at the border, and Americans trust Republicans more on this issue. So the GOP is on offense when they're talking about immigration and border issues. Tester is trying to disrupt some of this. One thing that did catch my eye this week is that Tester announced that he's co-sponsoring the Laken Riley Act. This is a Republican immigration bill, and Tester is the only Democratic co-sponsor.

Holly Michels: Yeah, we have seen Tester have some of the language in this act before him. It was in an amendment to one of the budget bills that would have put the government at risk of shutting down if it didn't pass. And at that point, Tester didn't vote for that, because if that would have been on the bill, it would have led to that whole deal failing. So, we've seen Tim Sheehy point out the Tester he's saying is flip flopping here. Tester points to that context saying this bill act specifically was never before the Senate. So definitely something we're seeing come up a lot in the Senate race. 

Corin Cates Carney: While some of the immigration conversation is very much a part of the national political scene, Holly, a broad call for change in immigration regulations was among a group of requests that state lawmakers made this week separately for three calls for a special legislative session. Can you explain what's going on here, and why we might be seeing three requests from Republicans instead of one for a call?
 

Holly Michels: Yeah, we've had these three requests over three days, which I think is a pretty big flurry - even in this interim, that's already seen a fair number of calls for special sessions. The first batch in this call was more tied to a long-simmering issue; this dispute between Republican lawmakers that they're having with the state's judiciary. That call came from a group of 12 far right legislators who want to look at legislation to have judge candidates run by party affiliation. The next call came from Speaker of the House Matt Regier, and he had three points that he wants lawmakers to take up. The first tying back to this immigration issue; he wants them to consider a bill similar to ones from Texas and Iowa, that would let state law enforcement arrest immigrants in the country without documentation and deport them. Texas's law is actually blocked right now in a legal challenge that's going to end up before the U.S. Supreme Court and the U.S. Department of Justice has said it's going to sue to stop Iowa's law from taking effect. Regier also wants lawmakers to look at possible bills that would regulate what individuals, businesses and nonprofits could do related to migrants. Regier, we should note, is from Flathead County here, which is where the situation we talked about earlier is. So that's his tie in there. Separately, he also wants to look at how to divide up recreational marijuana revenue, which is another long-simmering issue between Republicans and the judiciary. And then this final call comes from the Legislature's Freedom Caucus. They want to put a constitutional initiative on the ballot this fall that says only Montana citizens can vote in elections. It's necessary to point out here that it's already the case that you need to be a citizen to vote in elections, but they just want to spell that out explicitly here.

Corin Cates Carney: So the legislature with a simple majority can call themselves back in a special session. That's something that the governor has the authority to do, too. But Shaylee Ragar asked Governor Greg Gianforte what he thought of these calls for a special session, and here's what he had to say.

Greg Gianforte: We need a new president in the White House more than a special session.

 
Corin Cates Carney: So not much of an endorsement there. Holly, does it look like these efforts actually have enough support to move forward before them?

 
Holly Michels: It's pretty hard for the legislature to call itself back. In state history, we've only seen it happen once since 1889. Out of the 33 special sessions we've had. There was one other additional call that was made by both the governor and the legislature. So where we're at now, the Secretary of State has five days from getting these calls to send out that poll to all 150 legislators. Once they get it, they have another 30 days to return it. So we'll be watching closely to see what happens, but I think it is a pretty hard road to actually get that special session called.

 
Corin Cates Carney: The Washington Post ran a story this week reporting that former President Donald Trump mocked Senator John Tester's weight in a recent fundraising event. In that same event, Trump said he may come back to Montana this year to campaign against Tester. This was something that he did multiple times in 2018. Rob, Montana has been very supportive of Trump, but even after those visits, Tester was reelected. What do trips like that do for the GOP base, and do you think that they could have a greater impact this time around?

Rob Saldin: Trump's keeping it classy, as usual. And, you know, Corin, who knows whether he's really serious about coming to Montana? In one sense, it would be baffling to choose to do so because he's got a lot on his plate already; from his legal troubles to his own campaign in which Montana is not contested. You know, remember that when he made all those trips here in 2018, that was an off-year election. So, Trump didn't have to worry about his own campaign. He could just focus exclusively on the congressional elections, of which our Senate race that year was among the most important. But this time Trump's on the ballot. So, it would be kind of strange to spend limited time and limited resources coming to Montana. On the other hand, he hates Tester, and he does have a vindictive streak, and it's perhaps just too tempting to pass up. If he did, it would certainly be one of the biggest events of the campaign. You know, just because Rosendale lost in 2018, that doesn't necessarily mean those presidential visits didn't have an impact, right? Without the Trump factor, Rosendale quite possibly would have lost by more. If Trump does come again this cycle, it would carry some benefits for Republicans. It would no doubt, you know, help rally the faithful and gin up fundraising. And it would just serve to reinforce the connection between Trump and Sheehy. But that said, Corin, the gist of your question is interesting in that it's entirely reasonable to wonder what, if anything, makes a significant difference these days, right? One of the major implications of those macro forces I was talking about earlier is that there are way fewer persuadable voters these days.

 
Corin Cates Carney: Another news headline this week, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg traveled to western Montana to tout the big federal spending packages supported by the Biden administration that have sent money to infrastructure projects like the Missoula Airport and a wildlife crossing on the Flathead Reservation. A reporter at the event said he mentioned Tester a lot in his speech at the Missoula airport and seats there were packed with Democrats. What's your read on this, Rob?

Rob Saldin: Well, Corin, if you're going to have a Biden administration official visit Montana, Buttigieg is probably the one you'd want if you're Tester. You know, for one thing, he's just a good communicator. But more than that, Buttigieg is able to come here and point to specific things that Democrats and Tester have done to help Montana. Notably Corin, these are all things that push back against those major forces in American politics, right? Polarization, nationalization, the urban, rural dynamic, the things that Buttigieg was here to champion are locally based projects. So, these are the kinds of things that can disrupt our tendency to categorize everything as being good or bad for this or that team. They're apolitical in that sense, and that's the kind of thing you need if you're a Democrat running in a red state. This Buttigieg visit, I think, is, is a nice thing for Tester because it, very much pushes back against that.

Corin Cates Carney: Turning now to the recent debate among the Democratic candidates for Montana's Eastern House district, which is currently held by Republican Matt Rosendale. This district is one that favors Republicans, but this debate, hosted by the Montana Farmers Union, was a chance for Democrats in their party's primary to stand out. Holly, what stood out to you?

Holly Michels: Generally speaking, what stood out to me is the candidates were fairly similar in their answers to a lot of questions on everything from health care to energy policy. Ming Cabrera said he could win because he trusts his convictions, and he would show up to things like debate on the Farm Bill. He also repeatedly cited how he grew up in agriculture. John Driscoll said that his history to the Bitterroot Valley has shown him how to navigate deeply conservative territory like eastern Montana, so he'd be well suited to represent the district. Kev Hamm said that he could win because he's vocal and shows up, and he also made the point of saying several times that the seat needed someone who wasn't using it as a steppingstone to the next gig. Steve Held said he's a fourth-generation rancher and he doesn't think agriculture issues, which is what a lot of the debate was about, really neatly aligned with one party or the other. Hamm tried to highlight differences when it came to what the candidates thought about the war between Israel and Hamas. He said he signed on to a letter asking for a cease fire and hostages to be released. Held said he actually issued his own letter calling for that. Cabrera said he's also called for a cease fire, but he thought the U.S. should continue to provide aid to Israel, while Driscoll said that the U.S. should cut off weapons to Israel, similar to what President Joe Biden said recently. You know, all the candidates on abortion said they support the right to access abortion. On climate change they all acknowledge that oil and gas aren't going anywhere anytime soon, which is something that in that Eastern District is pretty critical. But they did call for the expansion of various renewable options. And then, you know, the candidates all also focus really heavily on the earlier Republican debate that we talked about in last week's show, talking about how half the candidates in that primary didn't show up to that debate, and really making it clear that they think it's important to show up to that sort of thing.

Corin Cates Carney: I think that's all we have time for this week. Holly and Rob. Thank you.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.