In or out? Liz Cheney with a mustache? Busse announces his running mate

Will he, or won't he? Questions abound about Rep. Matt Rosendale's political future. A former congressman wants Rosendale's House seat. Democrat Ryan Busse picks a well-known Helena attorney as his running mate in the governor's race.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Sally Mauk Holly, it's been over a week since Congressman Matt Rosendale announced he was dropping out of the Senate race, and we still haven't heard if he's going to run for reelection to his House seat.

Holly Michels Sally, I think this is where all the eyes in the Montana political world are fixed right now - waiting to see what Rosendale does here. The deadline to file for the seat is March 11th, so there's still a window for Rosendale to decide, or if he's already decided to announce what he's doing. So far, just one candidate in the eastern House primary that he would be joining if he does run; that's Ed Walker of Billings, has indicated he's now waiting to see what Rosendale ultimately decides. The other seven have said they're still planning to run, regardless of if Rosendale is in or out. And when Rosendale dropped out of the Senate race, he said he would spend the next few days prayerfully considering things with his family and it appears he's not done with that process yet.

His departure from the Senate race has left some of his supporters in a pretty interesting spot. They spoke pretty sharply against Tim Sheehy who's now the presumed front runner in that primary, now that it's just Sheehy and former Secretary of State and past head of the Public Service Commission, Brad Johnson, left in that race. The people who backed Rosendale and said they were really opposed to Sheehy because he was handpicked by party leaders in D.C., are having to hold their nose and say they now support Sheehy because he's their option to attempt to unseat incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester this fall. It looks like Republicans are doing that. You know, you talk to people like heads of county central committees, they're saying that Sheehy's their guy now, and it's not because they're really excited about him or because they're now okay with the role the National Party leadership played in picking Sheehy, but because he's the guy they're getting behind to run against Tester. And of course, we've talked about a lot before - defeating Tester is a huge deal not only for Republicans nationally trying to take back control of the Senate, but also, he was the last statewide Democrat left standing after the 2020 elections in Montana - though, of course, we do have a lot of those statewide offices on the ballot again this fall. So, we'll see how things shake out.

Sally Mauk Rob, the longer Rosendale waits, the more the mystery deepens and the rumors fly. What could possibly be his motivation to draw this out?

Rob Saldin Well, Sally, it's hard to know exactly what's going on here. There's certainly no political upside to waiting, but maybe he's a bit shellshocked after what was a pretty epic crash and burn on the Senate campaign. Maybe he has more important things to worry about losing then his job in Congress. I don't know. The rumors certainly are flying, though, as you note. And that's not surprising either, because as we discussed last week, his withdrawal from the Senate race - it just didn't make any sense. Rosendale is very ambitious. He's been gearing up for this for a long time, possibly years. He's been teasing and foreshadowing his announcement for months. And then finally he announces with a guns blazing demeanor directed just as much at what he considers to be his own party's establishment as against Tester. And then, just dozens of hours later, he abruptly drops it all. Ostensibly, he tells us because Trump endorsed the other Republican candidate. But that shouldn't have caught anyone by surprise, least of all Rosendale. So, in a situation like this, Sally, where the pieces don't go together, it's natural for people to assume that there's got to be more to this story. And then to further add to the intrigue, you're right - he leaves the issue of his House seat dangling, which, if he does intend to seek reelection, is just baffling. You know, just from the politics of it, you'd want to announce that immediately to push some of the other candidates out of the race, or just to reassert yourself as the dominant candidate. But here we are a week later. And not only are most of them forging ahead, but we've got a new candidate and a top tier one at that.

Sally Mauk Well, speaking of that new candidate, while we wait for Rosendale's announcement, Holly, the field, has, as Rob just mentioned, the field of candidates for his House seat has grown. As expected, former Congressman Denny Rehberg got in the race this week, and he says he's in regardless of what Rosendale decides.

Audio of Denny Rehberg from his interview with Yellowstone Public Radio News Director Jackie Coffin:

I'm not a confidant of Matt. We've talked. I have no idea what his plans are. But again, I just think that with my 12 years’ experience, having been lieutenant governor, having been a state legislator, I think I bring a different perspective back to Washington, D.C..

Sally Mauk And Rehberg does bring a different perspective, Holly. And this makes the race for the House seat even more interesting.

Holly Michels It definitely does, Sally. Earlier this year, there was a poll going around that floated Rehberg's name as a candidate and turns out that was a pretty good indication of what to expect because like we saw, he's officially in this race now. As Rob just said earlier, I think by name recognition alone, Rehberg is now probably one of the lead candidates in this crowded primary field. There's about eight people in right now. In his campaign announcement, Rehberg said he wants to run for office again because he wants to ensure that there's a country left for his grandkids. In a radio interview - like you mentioned, Rehberg is playing up his experience. He's already been in Congress. He's saying that should appeal to voters. Like we noted last week, when Montana just had the lone House seat, he held it from 2001 to 2013. Shortly after Rehberg's announcement, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, who's also in that primary, called Rehberg a RINO, which is Republican In Name Only - trying to say he's not truly Conservative. Though Rehberg did have a pretty solidly conservative record during his time in the House.

Sally Mauk And Rob, as Holly just mentioned, another House Republican candidate, Elsie Arntzen, is quick to criticize Mr. Rehberg and has in fact called him, "Liz Cheney with a mustache." Is this race going to shape up to be MAGAs versus RINOs?

Rob Saldin Yeah, I think it quite possibly will, Sally. You know, that's a good line from Arntzen. I'm not sure how true it is. Rehberg certainly hasn't been actively opposing Trump in the way Liz Cheney has. But Arntzen also claimed in that same piece by Tom Lutey where she used that quote you just mentioned. She also mentioned that Rehberg has spent his time in Congress acting like a Democrat. Now, on the one hand, I'm not sure I've heard that attack before. I certainly don't recall people saying that back when he was in Congress for the reasons you just laid out, Holly. But if you look at what Arntzen's really getting at with that jab, I think it does reveal something of a fault line that's emerged in the GOP. Rehberg was an appropriator when he was in Congress. As was common at the time, he saw his job, at least in part, as channeling federal funds in a way that would address problems on the ground in Montana to try to meet the needs of his constituents. Well, that whole mentality is now considered 'swamp behavior' by many Republicans, apparently including Arntzen. So Rehberg, who was definitely known as a staunch Conservative in his day, now risks being labeled as a RINO. 

Sally Mauk Rob, another House candidate, Troy Downing, is all in for Trump. And here's his new campaign ad.

Troy Downing narration When terrorists attacked America, I signed up to hunt them down and serve as a combat search and rescue aviator. I'm Troy Downing, an Air Force veteran and self-made businessman. I've spent my career creating jobs and putting America first. Now I'm running for Congress to secure our border and dredge the swamp. I'm pro-Trump, pro-wall, pro-gun and pro-America.

Sally Mauk And I'm thinking, Rob, that Troy Downing and Tim Sheehy have the same ad production company. I feel like I've seen this ad before.

Rob Saldin Yeah, totally, Sally. Downing, I just think is an interesting candidate and one we haven't talked about a lot to this point. Like Arntzen, he's run for Congress before - in his case, for the 2018 Republican Senate nomination. Since then, he's run and won statewide for auditor, the position he currently holds. So, he and Arntzen both have that feather in their cap, which you would assume translates into higher name recognition than some of the other candidates in the mix, with Rehberg being in something of a unique position as the candidate from another generation who's coming out of retirement. Well, in contrast to Arntzen's view of Rehberg anyway, Downing certainly doesn't shy away from embracing Trump or really from going off the same script as a lot of other Republican candidates are these days. You mentioned the similarities with the Sheehy ad, and I think that kind of proves the point, right? Aside from a detail or two about the specifics of the jobs that Downing and Sheehy performed during their time in the military, the scripts they use in their ads are totally interchangeable.

Sally Mauk Switching to the governor's race, Holly, Democratic candidate Ryan Busse picked his running mate this week. And it's someone who should be familiar to voters, Helena attorney Raph Graybill.

Holly Michels Yeah, Sally, this is an interesting pick by Busse, although, as Graybill tells it, it sounds like Graybill got inspired after attending a few Busse events and approached the candidate to ask to be a part of the campaign. Graybill said he was swayed by Busse's message about trying to return to a Montana that feels more familiar, is more affordable and more livable. And he also said he was encouraged to see new faces at Busse's political events.

New voters might remember Graybill from his run for attorney general in 2020. He lost that race to Republican Austin Knudsen by about 17 points. They might also have seen his name in news coverage about a lot of the litigation against bills passed by the Republican majority legislature and signed by Governor Greg Gianforte over the last three years that have been challenged in court. That's things like limitations on access to abortion. Graybill has been the lawyer in more than a dozen of those cases that have resulted in laws being blocked in some capacity. That's something he also cited when he was announcing that he's going to be Busse's running mate, saying that he feels he can only do so much through the courts, and this is the next step to what he says is beat back some of these unconstitutional provisions that Gianforte and Republicans have passed. During a series of appearances following the announcement, Graybill and Busse continued to hammer Gianforte over rising property taxes, the high cost of housing in Montana. Those are campaign issues, Busse's really focused on so far. Just a little bit of bio information on Graybill: he was born and raised in Great Falls, he was former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock's chief legal counsel, he went to Columbia University and then Yale Law School and then went to the University of Oxford. He also spent four years in the New York City Police Department as an auxiliary police officer. He and his wife have three young children. He also comes from a family that's got a long history of involvement in Montana politics. His grandfather was Chair of the 1972 Constitutional Convention.

Sally Mauk Rob, Graybill had this to say about the Democrats' chances to win the governor's seat.

Raph Graybill This is going to be a grassroots, bottom up campaign. I know we can win. I know that we're on the right side of the issues.

Sally Mauk And you shouldn't run, of course, if you don't think you can win. But it's a long shot, Rob.

Rob Saldin Yeah, you know, they've certainly come out of the gates with a lot of energy, but I think Holly noted that campaign and it was, it was a blowout. Of course, Graybill wasn't the only Democrat to have a bad night. Republicans swept the statewide contests, and none of them were even remotely close. You know, one of the things you hear Democrats say a lot about that cycle is that COVID prevented them from campaigning as usual, you know, from doing the things they typically do, like showing up in rural areas, from knocking on doors and so forth. The idea is that that anomalous factor in that unusual year helps explain their poor showing. But 'not to worry. Now that we're back to normal, Democrats will be back in the mix'. And that's, I think, part of what Graybill is getting at in that same piece when he was talking about, you know, how this is going to be a grassroots, bottom up campaign. The trouble I think, Sally, is that there are powerful forces at work out there in the country and in an age of polarization, in an age of nationalized politics, in an age of an ever expanding urban rural divide that works to the disadvantage of Democrats, at least in places like Montana, it's unclear that having a grassroots, bottom up campaign like, Graybill talks about, it's unclear how much mileage that's going to get you these days. We will see over the course of this year. 

Sally Mauk We sure will. And it's been another busy political week. Rob and Holly, thanks. I'll talk to you soon.

Rob Saldin Thanks, Sally. Thanks, Sally.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.