Rosendale’s bombshell. His future in the U.S. House? Gianforte makes a run for the border.

Matt Rosendale shocks everyone by dropping out of the Senate race just days after entering. Republicans hoping to win his U.S. House seat are left wondering whether he now will seek re-election. Gov. Gianforte, like all Republicans running this year, makes border security a top issue.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Sally Mauk: Rob, Matt Rosendale dropped a bombshell this week, dropping out of the Republican Senate primary race just a few days after announcing his candidacy. He cited Donald Trump's endorsement of his opponent, Tim Sheehy, as the reason he was dropping out. But he surely knew when he announced that that was a possibility.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, Sally, it's a genuine shocker. That endorsement of Sheehy from Trump came just a few hours after Rosendale issued his announcement last Friday. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this. Rosendale's announcement that he was bailing was, in one sense rather refreshing and direct. As you say, he basically says it's all about Trump, which is probably accurate. And yet, Sally, the thing that doesn't quite click into place here is that it's hard to believe, as you suggest, that Trump's endorsement caught Rosendale by surprise. As we've discussed, there was that incident on the House floor a little over a year ago when Rosendale refused to take Trump's call during the ousting of Speaker McCarthy. In the months since, it's been crystal clear that Steve Daines, who of course, is a key figure in all of this, had been grinding in the background and has a very effective working relationship with Trump. And then there was the dust up over that speaker at the Republican gathering that Trump World was quite unhappy with - and that's just some of the stuff we know publicly. Certainly, Rosendale himself, or his close associates, must have also had informal signals that this was, if not 100% certain, at least a very real possibility and a big potential problem. So, the idea that Rosendale was somehow caught unawares of all this is, is really quite curious. If it really is all about Trump, as Rosendale says, that's an issue he either knew about or at the very least, that he should have anticipated.

Sally Mauk: And when he announced, he was so giddily defiant of the Republican establishment. It's odd that that defiance has now suddenly disappeared.

Rob Saldin: Right. He knew, and in fact seemed to be proud of the fact that he was throwing it in the establishment's face and now all of a sudden -- total back down.

Sally Mauk: Well, Rob, this is not good news for the incumbent, Jon Tester, whose campaign would have benefited from a Republican scrum in the primary.

Rob Saldin: Right. It's clearly not what Tester was hoping for. They wanted an ugly primary on the Republican side that would have at the very least, roughed up Sheehy a bit, raised concerns about his candidacy, forced him to spend a bunch of money early, created some bad blood internally within the Republican Party. And maybe best case, from Team Tester's perspective, it might have resulted in Rosendale defeating Sheehy, in which case Tester would be facing, you know, what they consider to be a weaker GOP nominee in the general election. So, this definitely isn't what Tester was hoping for and what it appeared that he was going to get there, if only for a few days. And that's certainly, Sally, I think, been the thrust of all the reaction and the stories that I've seen about this since Rosendale threw in the towel. You know, Sheehy now has a glide path to the nomination, he avoids a divisive and costly primary, Daines and McConnell are breaking out the champagne and so forth. And that's all true enough. But as we discussed several weeks ago, Sally, I do think there is one notable downside here for Sheehy - whether he and Daines and McConnell recognize it or not as another matter - but in him not having to wade through a contested primary, there is a downside. This is Tim Sheehy's first rodeo. He's a novice, and a primary would have given him the kind of on-the-ground training that a new, untested candidate can really benefit from and that can make them a stronger candidate in the general election. Well, Sheehy is not going to get any of that. Instead, his first turn in the spotlight is going to be in the country's most anticipated and most scrutinized election outside of the presidential. So, you know, Sally, I guess he'd better be ready to hit the ground running, because this most certainly isn't Tester's first rodeo.

Sally Mauk: Well, there's also no guarantee, Rob, that Sheehy will get Rosendale's supporters behind him. They may be bitter about what's happened to their candidate.

Rob Saldin: Maybe so, Sally. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next week or two on all of this.

Sally Mauk: Holly, Rosendale has not said whether or not he will seek reelection to his House seat, and that has to be frustrating for a bunch of folks who already announced that they wanted to run for that seat.

Holly Michels: Yeah, you're right, Sally. It was shaping up to be a packed primary without Rosendale, and now I think a lot of the candidates that are in that race are waiting to see what he does. If he does join that race, it'll probably be an uphill battle for all of them, especially the ones with really low name recognition. In 2020, when it was still in At-Large congressional seat, and then in 2022, in the Eastern District, Rosendale had no issues emerging from primaries for his party in those races. He won a six-way Republican primary with about 48% of the vote four years ago. He got about 75% of the vote in a four-way primary just two years ago. Who may be considered leader of the pack of those who are not officially running yet but have talked about running is former Rep. Denny Rehberg. He held Montana's at-large seat from 2001 to 2013. He said in interviews he might jump into the race. He's probably got the best recognition among all those possible primary candidates. He was also a lieutenant governor and former state legislator. He's operated fast food franchises around the state. He does have some controversy around his name. In 2009, he was involved in a boat crash where a former state legislator found to be driving drunk, ran his boat ashore and seriously injured an aide. After Rosendale said he was running for Senate, we saw Superintendent of Public Instruction, Elsie Arntzen, make her campaign official for that eastern House district. That was something she said she'd do only if Rosendale didn't seek reelection. Troy Downing the state auditor - he actually joined the race back in November. He's not a stranger to a crowded primary. He actually ran against Rosendale in 2018 in the Senate Republican primary that Rosendale won. Downing had said previously he was going to run if Rosendale didn't, but he did join before Rosendale actually jumped out of the Senate race. Former state Sen. Ken Bogner of Miles City - he'd also told reporters he wouldn't run unless Rosendale decided to seek the Senate seat, but he also filed for the House primary way back in January. And then we've got a handful of former state legislators that are running. That includes Ric Holden, he's a rancher in Dawson, Joel Krautter, a lawyer in Billings and Ed Walker, a Billings businessman. Then there's Stacy Zinn, who's a Billings resident who used to work for the Drug Enforcement Agency. There's also Billings pharmacist Kyle Austin, who ran in that 2020 primary and said after he lost that primary, he intended to run again this cycle. He's filed paperwork to run for the seat. And we haven't heard who's still in and who's out yet. That's probably up in the air, depending on what you and Rob we're just talking about waiting to see what Rosendale does. So, we'll be watching that very closely.

Sally Mauk Rob, can you imagine Rosendale not running for reelection?

Rob Saldin Yeah, well, I would certainly expect him to, but I also would not have anticipated that someone would launch a Senate campaign and then drop it a few days later. So, who knows, Sally. I would note, though, that Trump, in his endorsement of Sheehy, was uncharacteristically nuanced and diplomatic, right? He went out of his way to say that he is also very much a fan of Rosendale and would happily endorse Rosendale for the House if he changed his mind and dropped out of the Senate campaign, which, of course, now he's done. So, that would certainly seem to leave the door wide open for Rosendale, and it would be uncharacteristic, just based on what we know of Matt Rosendale, for him to not do this. And yet it is also notable, Sally, that in Rosendale's statement saying he was dropping his Senate run, that he didn't just say right then and there that he was running for reelection. That's a little curious. He says he wants to go home and be with his family over the weekend. And, you know, one might have thought he would have just put it out there right away.

Sally Mauk Well, meanwhile, Holly, Tim Sheehy has an ad out bragging about Trump's endorsement. And here's that ad.

Sheehy Ad: President Trump is endorsing former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy for the United States Senate. Trump says Sheehy is a political outsider who is strong on the border, strong that our military and vets, and strong on our Second Amendment. Trump calls Sheehy an American hero and a highly successful businessman who will beat Jon Tester. Tim Sheehy is the Trump-endorsed Conservative who will put America first.

Sally Mauk: This ad, Holly, has all the Republican talking points this election: border security, vets and guns.

Holly Michels: Like you said, it hits on all those main Republican talking points. We've seen emerge as top issues so far this election. Southern border, military, firearms and the Second Amendment. The southern border is something that, I was at the Republican convention recently here in Helena, and every Republican who spoke brought up record-high migrant crossings and fentanyl overdoses in Montana. Important to note, I think, you know, fentanyl in Montana can be traced back to Mexico. Because of that, we've seen Republican leaders in the state made trips to the southern border and speak about it frequently. But there's good reporting from NPR from last fall that shows that nearly all the fentanyl brought into the U.S. is brought by people who can legally cross the border. About half of it is actually brought by U.S. citizens, but still is a major thing we're hearing from Republican candidates this cycle. In his remarks at that Republican convention, Sheehy called for sealing the border for a generation, saying he wanted to see a long-term solution. Back to this ad, it also has images of Sheehy from his time in the military, reminding voters of his service. Veterans’ affairs is always a major part of any political race here in Montana with our high veteran population and something that Tester has really focused on in his career. So, the Republican running against him is always trying to make a point that they would actually be stronger on the VA issues than Tester would be. You also see photos of Sheehy with firearms. We hear he's strong on the Second Amendment, which of course is a critical thing to Republican voters in Montana.

Sally Mauk: Speaking of border security, Rob, Gov. Gianforte recently joined other Republican governors at the border in Texas to denounce the Biden administration's handling of migrants crossing there. And now he's asked the head of the Montana National Guard to look into how the guard might help the current situation - whatever that means. What, if anything, do you think does this have to do with the governor's reelection campaign?

Rob Saldin Well, probably a decent amount. I think we see a lot of Republicans running down there to the border and doing similar things. But one thing to note, Sally, I think, is that you don't have to be deep in the MAGA fever swamps to note that there are some issues down at the southern border. In fact, large majorities of Americans are worried about the border. They want the Biden administration to be tougher on the border. Roughly half of all Americans consider it to be a full-blown crisis. Biden's approval rating on handling the border is terrible, and so forth. There are some Democrats out there who seem eager to downplay the situation, but this, at least in my view, it can't be just casually dismissed as some kind of hysterical conspiracy cooked up in Conservative media or something like this. You know, bottom line, the American public thinks this is a legitimate problem on the merits. Republican elites see that, and one can assume, agree. Now, at the same time, it's also the case that clearly Republicans want to make this a headline issue for the purposes of the 2024 campaign. Gianforte is certainly not alone in that. You know, you can see the message has gone out all over the country. For Republicans, this is a campaign issue, perhaps THE campaign issue. There is a rather cynical element to that. In recent days, just to cite one example, Republicans in Congress have seemingly rejected legislation supported by most Democrats and the administration that would do precisely what they claim to be demanding with regard to the southern border. And the reason they seem to have rejected their gift horse, is that to accept the deal and declare victory would undercut their ability to harp on it during the campaign and denounce Biden over it. So, you know, like a lot of these things, Sally, I think there is some merit to the issues that we see in campaigns and some just pure kind of cynical campaign theatrics.

Sally Mauk Well, the 2024 election is likely to have even more twists and turns. Rob and Holly, I'm glad to have you along to guide us through those. I'll talk to you next week.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.