National Dems bet on Tranel; Who's more MAGA? Racicot says Trump should be disqualified

Democrat Monica Tranel's race for Congress is drawing national attention and resources. Montana Republicans are getting chippy with each other over who should be their nominee for Senate. And former Gov. Marc Racicot thinks Donald Trump should not be allowed to run again for president.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Sally Mauk: Rob, this week the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named Democrat Monica Tranel to its 'Red to Blue' campaign in her race to unseat Republican Ryan Zinke in the western congressional district. And this means the National Party thinks she has a good chance to win. And it also means she'll be getting a lot more national support and money.

Rob Saldin: Yeah, exactly. Sally. There are two big things here, and the first is that being on that D-Trip list, it loops Tranel into a whole new fundraising network, and it's a fundraising network that will come to her largely for free. That is, her campaign isn't going to have to invest a lot of resources into developing that network. It's fallen into her lap. So probably many of our listeners have had the experience of receiving fundraising appeals for candidates from across the country who they've perhaps never heard of. Well, that kind of thing does not happen by accident. Choices are made by outfits like the D-Trip, about which races they're going to target for fundraising, and the D-Trip is one of the key outfits working in this space on the Democratic side. So that should help Tranel very directly in terms of money.

The other thing here is that it's something of a signaling device. Again, these decisions, they aren't made randomly. This doesn't happen by accident. The folks at the D-Trip are tasked with one thing, and that is winning campaigns. That's their whole point for being. So, this is a reflection of a shrewd calculation that they think Tranel has a chance to flip a seat. They are not in the business of giving out money equally to every candidate out there or being nice to the plucky underdog fighting a good, if futile, fight. And that's no small thing for Tranel. Obviously, she's going to be endorsed by the national Democratic Party, but to have that mark that, 'Okay, this is one of the ones that we can focus on in our effort to regain the House', that's a big thing, because part of her problem two years ago is that she was pressed on resources at the end. She underperformed what she needed to in several key counties, Gallatin probably most of all, but also Missoula and elsewhere. As we've discussed previously, Sally, I think the presidential year and the Tester campaign will take care of a lot of that for Tranel, but getting on that D-Trip radar screen will only reinforce that. So, this is definitely a nice plus for Tranel.

Sally Mauk: Meanwhile, we still haven't heard much of a campaign peep from Ryan Zinke and no reaction to this, for example.

Rob Saldin: Well, Zinke probably doesn't feel like he needs to chime in every time his opponent has some good news. I suppose he could use this to say; 'This is more evidence that Tranel is just another swamp creature off the Democrats' D.C. assembly line who'll be a foot soldier for Hakeem Jeffries', or something like that, but that would also just serve to draw attention to Tranel's good news, so I'm not surprised he's sitting this one out.

You look at the Senate campaign on the Republican side, (eastern congressional district Representative Matt) Rosendale, as we've discussed, you know, he's also not been in any big rush to jump into the primary campaign for the Senate seat and both of these guys are in a similar position, just in terms of their key strengths being that they've won multiple times already. They have near universal name ID. Well, if that's your situation, there's not a lot of upside, Sally, to jumping into campaign mode early and in fact, quite possibly the opposite. It just gives your opponent — be it a primary opponent in Rosendale case or general election opponent in Zinke case — a longer period of time to draw contrasts and attack you and so on.

Sally Mauk: Speaking of Rosendale, Holly, we still haven't heard if he's going to enter the Republican Senate primary, despite his many hints that he is. But there is this new TV ad attacking him:

TV Ad: (Clip of TV anchor) 'Border protection says it is overwhelmed as a record number of migrants crossed the southern border. (Ad Announcer) Matt Rosendale talks about securing the border. (Rosendale) 'We have to secure our border' (Ad Announcer) But when he had the chance to act, Rosendale sabotaged the whole thing, abandoned a deal from top conservatives to secure the border, stopping Trump's wall, rejecting up to 22,000 border agents. Come on — tell Matt Rosendale, stand with conservatives. Secure the border now.'

Sally Mauk: Holly, this ad is sponsored by a PAC called, generically, Montana Policy Action, which is not, it turns out, a Democratic PAC.

Holly Michels: It's not, no, Sally. This is a nonprofit. It's a 5O1(c4), which is also known as a dark money group. And it doesn't have to file reports with the Federal Election Commission. Instead, they only file with the IRS. So, it is a little harder to figure out who is backing this group.

The ad, if viewers were to see it, doesn't have an address or ton of information about who this is, but looking through records and filings with television stations in Montana that are required when these ad buys are made, it's clear that the group is run by Dan Duffy, who at one point was the political director for Gov. Greg Gianforte when he was running for office. Duffy said in an email to our bureau that he declined to comment about these ad buys. But he said his group's mission is to inform people of Montana about policy discussions and that holding leaders accountable can help bring about change.

The message in this ad, we hear it saying Rosendale sabotaged a border deal and isn't strong enough on the southern border. We talked about this on the show — you and Rob were just talking about prominent Republicans in Montana — we've got Senator Steve Daines and Greg Gianforte who are strongly backing Tim Sheehy as the Republican to run against Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester this fall. They're trying to keep Rosendale from joining the race through a lot of different efforts, including ads like this, and the border is something that Rosendale himself is making a major issue of. Congress has been fighting over a border deal for a very long time. We're seeing the most recent iteration of that now — the text of which isn't out yet. Looks like it might have for a minute seen some bipartisan agreement, but now its fate is up in the air after former President Trump urged Republicans to oppose it. Rosendale has said that he doesn't back it. He's calling for the passage of H.R. 2 which would reinstate the Remain in Mexico policy to generally make seeking asylum much more difficult and add 900 miles of a border wall, among other things. Like we said, although Rosendale isn't officially campaigning yet, in Congress he's doing a lot of things, like speaking in a press conference calling for Republicans to shut down the government if that southern border isn't shut down, pass H.R. 2 or other legislation Rosendale is proposing. So I think we're going to see a lot more efforts like this in anticipation of him jumping in the race soon.

Sally Mauk: Well, Rob, this growing rift in the Montana Republican Party, it has to be something Democrats are watching with nothing but glee.

Rob Saldin: Absolutely, Sally. People are lining up and taking sides and it's getting pretty chippy. You know, one thing that caught my eye this week is there was this kerfuffle over a speaker at an upcoming GOP gathering here in Montana, and the speaker had said some mean things, apparently, about Rosendale, like he was insufficiently loyal to Trump, and Rosendale's allies pitched a fit about this and got the guy disinvited. The terms of this dispute basically all comes down to who is the most MAGA, and who is the most strident ally of Trump. The funny thing is, is that Rosendale is MAGA to the core. He was MAGA before there was MAGA. Unlike some of these folks, who you really wonder if they actually believe all this stuff, or are they just going along out of a pragmatic calculation or simple cowardice? Well, one gets the impression with Rosendale that he is a true believer. You give the guy truth serum and he'd say exactly the same things. Sheehy, by contrast, has at least been called out by his critics for being un-MAGA in various ways prior to running for the Senate — he's been accused of being a DEI enthusiast for wanting to take strong action on climate change, for being critical of Trump, supporting Tim Scott's presidential campaign instead of Trump's, and so on. Now, Rosendale and Trump used to be tied at the hip. Remember that back in 2018, when Rosendale was running against Tester, Trump came here to Montana four times to campaign for the guy, but he certainly hasn't run out to support Rosendale this time. And the moment when that relationship really seemed to go sideways was about a year ago, when Trump called Rosendale during the saga over electing Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker of the House. And Rosendale, of course, was a holdout on that and Trump wanted to twist his arm, presumably, but Rosendale refused to take the call. And here we are. So, yeah, this is going to be a fascinating one to watch over the coming months.

Sally Mauk: Speaking of Republican rifts, Holly, former Republican Gov. Mark Racicot was on national television quite a bit this week to talk about why he and two other former Republican governors have filed a brief in the case before the U.S. Supreme Court that would declare Donald Trump not eligible to run for President again because of the 14th amendment to the Constitution. And here's what Gov. Racicot told Joy Reid of MSNBC:

Marc Racicot: You cannot have taken an oath to support the Constitution of the United States and thereafter involve, engage, countenance, incite, or in any other way be involved with an insurrection against the United States of America and against the Constitution.

Sally Mauk: And Holly, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in this case this coming week.

Holly Michels: Yeah, they will. Like we heard, this case rests on the 14th amendment, which says you can't hold federal office if you engage in an insurrection or rebellion. And Racicot and a couple other Republican former governors that filed this brief with him are arguing that Trump, you know, like they did when they took office, swore an oath to uphold, protect and defend the Constitution and that Trump's actions surrounding January 6th, 2021, violated that oath.

In the brief, these former governors argue that if Trump is allowed to run again, it makes these oaths they all took meaningless. Racicot has been critical of Trump and the Republican Party under Trump's leadership for several years now, and in 2022, he endorsed Monica Tranel — the Democrat in the U.S. House race. Going back four years ago, he supported Joe Biden over Trump for the presidency. That's all actually led to the state party saying Racicot, who's also a former head of the Republican National Committee — the state party said that Racicot is no longer a party member.

On the flip side of this, we've also seen Montana's Republican attorney general and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is led by Montana Senator Steve Daines, file briefs on the opposite side of this, supporting Trump on the ballot, saying that if the courts kept the candidate they feel is qualified off the ballot, it defeats the democratic process. So, I think there's a lot of eyes on what the U.S. Supreme Court does here, and this is just a good illustration of some of the divisions within the state party right now.

Sally Mauk: Rob, the Supreme Court is actually not expected to bar Trump from running. But regardless, does the fact that former Gov. Racicot — and full disclosure here, Gov. Racicot is chair of the board of the Mansfield Center, where you work, Rob — does his and the two other Republican governors’ action in this case, do you think have any impact on voters?

Rob Saldin: I do absolutely think the broader activities of Racicot and these governors, as well as figures like Liz Cheney and Chris Christie and so on, are actually quite important. Obviously, they aren't going to convince a majority of Republicans and conservatives to abandon Trump, but they don't have to do that. It's still early, of course, and things could always change. But right now, it looks like we're in for another close election; one that might only be decided by tens of thousands of votes here or there. What Racicot and the others are doing is establishing a permission structure for other Republicans and other conservatives to abandon Trump, be it by voting for Biden or by voting for a third-party candidate, or simply skipping the presidential altogether. What they're doing is communicating to other Republicans that, 'You aren't the crazy ones. It's okay to be horrified by Trump and January 6th, and the lies and the cruelty, the indictments, the sexual assault and so on. You can still be a good, principled conservative and say "enough is enough"'. That is a core part of their message. The key, Sally, is that without people like Racicot and Cheney out there saying that kind of thing, it's a lot harder to get over that hurdle. If the only people you know who are Republicans, they're all lining up behind their guy — that kind of makes it easier to go along with crowd. So in a close election, things like this absolutely can matter.

Sally Mauk: We're going to be following everything that happens in the next few months as best we can. Rob and Holly, thank you and I'll talk to you next week.

Rob Saldin: Thank you, Sally.

Holly Michels: Thanks, Sally.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. MTPR's Sally Mauk is joined by Lee Newspapers State Bureau Chief Holly Michels and UM Political Science Professor and Mansfield Center Fellow Rob Saldin. Tune in on-air Saturdays at 9:45 a.m. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.