Fundraising reports hint at a tightening House race. Will abortion issues spur higher turnout?

Abortion is on the November ballot — sort of. A Democratic candidate gets a couple of prominent Republican endorsements. And a local snake is getting lots of screen time this campaign season.

Campaign Beat is MTPR's weekly political analysis program. Campaign Beat is hosted by Sally Mauk and features Lee Newspapers State News Bureau Chief Holly Michels. Sitting in this week for Rob Saldin, is University of Montana School of Journalism Professor of Political Reporting, Lee Banville.

Sally Mauk Holly, voters have ballot issues to decide this November, and one of them, Legislative Referendum 131 has generated a lot of vocal opposition. LR-131 is called the "Born Alive Infant Protection Act," and it would require health care providers to keep alive any infants born alive. Why is this opposed by many doctors and other health care providers?

Holly Michels So, doctors and providers are concerned about language in the referendum that says they must, "take necessary actions to preserve the life of a born-alive infant." the referendum also carries a punishment for doctors of up to 20 years in prison and a $50,000 fine. And what doctors and also families who experience late-term pregnancy loss are saying is that language would require them to intervene in situations where there's no amount of medical care that would change the outcome for an infant. Those who support the referendum say it protects infants rights, and those people who support it are also generally opposed to access to abortions.

What doctors are worried about is situations where they feel they would be forced to intervene if this were to pass. In situations where a fetus could not survive outside of the womb, kidneys or nervous system isn't developed, or if labor is around 16 weeks where there's just not enough development for survival. Also, doctors point out Montana already has a law that makes infanticide illegal. There was a press conference in Helena in September and we heard from people opposed to the referendum sharing stories about situations of their pregnancy or child loss and talking about how they were able into those moments make their own choices, maybe provide religious services or other type of comfort that they worried they wouldn't be able to if this referendum passes. And we haven't seen backers of this really organize like opponents have, though they have done press interviews. And again, they're reiterating that they're concerned with protecting innocent lives. So this is an interesting referendum. You know, I think the ballot language could be kind of tricky, so there's been a lot of coverage explaining it, but definitely one to be watching in November.

Sally Mauk Yeah, for sure.

Well, Lee, as we've often discussed on this program, abortion is a factor in this election in the wake of the Dobbs decision, but so is the economy, with gas prices and inflation still rising. How do you think Montanans will weigh those issues when they cast their ballot?

Lee Banville Well, a lot of it has to do with how those issues motivate voters. These off-year elections in particular, it often has a lot more to do with who turns up than how the general public feels. And so in a lot of ways, what we're seeing is both sides try to motivate their core voters around an issue. And so in particular, and perhaps inadvertently, this referendum has has really sparked much more, sort of, interest in the election around questions of abortion that might not have otherwise been raised. Because even though this is kind of an indirect abortion measure, it is something where the government is interfering in health care decisions, really the most private health care decisions a family is going to make. And that gives, in particular, Democratic forces the opportunity to kind of rally those who are upset about Roe v Wade to really direct and get them out to vote. You know, obviously, there's a lot of headwind for Democrats in this election because the economic message is, you know, we don't have a lot of polling in Montana, but I feel fairly safe in saying that, that probably President Biden isn't the most popular person in the state. And so, you know, they face those headwinds. And so Republicans are trying to focus on those messages to get their voters out. But this is really more about motivation and enthusiasm than it is about, you know, 'I'm going to pick one issue over the other.'

Sally Mauk And Holly LR-131 was actually passed before the Dobbs decision, right?

Holly Michels Yeah, it was. So legislators, Republican legislators, put this on the ballot during the 2021 session. And even that part of this is a point of contention between supporters and opponents. Last session was the first time in more than a decade and a half Republicans had legislative majority and the governor's office, governor from their party who wouldn't veto a bill to do a born-alive legislation, just going through the process, passing a bill, making it a law, not going this ballot route instead. And opponents to the referendum, they try to say that this has been something Republicans did to encourage turnout to fire up their base, to come out and vote in this midterm election year. Republicans have pushed back on that, saying they understand this is a major thing and they would like voter input on it. But that's also been a point of contention through this referendum process.

Sally Mauk Abortion is also a factor in the nonpartisan Supreme Court race between Ingrid Gustafson and James Brown, though neither candidate has or will mention it. The Washington Post recently profiled that race and supporters of legal abortion like Planned Parenthood are really pushing Gustafson.

Lee Banville Yes. I mean, we don't really know how the Dobbs decision and the sort of sending abortion politics into the state of Montana is really going to end up playing out. But what we are seeing, again, you know, whether it's the Gustafson support or it's the sort of reaction to 131, what we're seeing is both of these are opportunities for those who support abortion rights, who support the interpretation of the Montana right to privacy to cover abortion, has an opportunity to kind of rally support to strengthen abortion access in the state now that the federal right has been removed.

Sally Mauk Holly, new fundraising reports show Republican Ryan Zinke still leading the money race, but Democrat Monica Tranel is closing the gap somewhat. I assume that's one reason political analysts now rate that western district congressional race have changed that rating from likely Republican to "leans Republican."

Holly Michels Yeah, we have seen this race shift some, and that is pretty typical as we get closer to Election Day. And those fundraising reports that you cited are probably a part of why rankings websites have made that shift. Those do kind of stand in as a proxy for publicly available polling when we just don't, like we said earlier, had access to that in Montana, especially during a midterm election. This was Tranel's report where she, the first time she topped $1 million — she came in at $1.1 million. But like you said, Sally, Zinke pulled in $1.7 million. So he is still leading in that race. It is worth noting we don't have the full reports yet showing exactly where that money is coming from, breakdown of individual donors versus money from political committees or other sources. We will learn more about that in coming days when we reach the deadline to file those reports.

You know, the website FiveThirtyEight which compiles polls and runs models on races, it still gives Tranel just a five in 100 chance of winning. So we're not seeing everybody showing that shift. That FiveThiryEight ranking is based off of one poll. It's from impact research. Puts Zinke at 45%, Tranel at 43%. But it also notes that poll was sponsored by Tranel's campaign and the sample size was about 400 likely voters. So, again, like we've talked about in years past, we're in this situation where there's not great public polling, even less interest from outside groups who might poll in Montana during a midterm. So it's hard to say exactly where this race sits, but definitely see it tightening and be very curious about where we end up on Election Day.

Sally Mauk Lee, Tranel, the Democrat, is endorsed by former Republican Governor Mark Racicot and former Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Brown. But how much does that really matter, or are they still relevant with today's Montana Republican Party?

Lee Banville I don't know if hardcore Republicans are going to be affected by the decision by two sort of, you know, elder statesman of the Republican Party to endorse Tranel. And I think that that's okay. I think for Tranel what this is about is, this is about independents, the Republican voter that might vote every so often for Jon Tester. She's trying to weaken him on that in the more moderate area. And I think the other reason we're sort of seeing some of this tightening is, you know, oftentimes, we interpret how campaigns react to things as them reading the tea leaves a bit as well. And and the recent sort of swipes that Zinke took at Libertarian candidate John Lamb also sort of raised the question of whether he's worried that Lamb is eroding him on the right and these other positions are eroding him in the middle. And so I think that's why you're seeing some of those reactions and some of the efforts by Tranel to really trumpet the support from these elder statesman Republicans.

Sally Mauk Holly, Tranel has a new ad out with yet more snakes, this time slithering on a plane. And here is that ad.

[Tranel] "A snake on a plane. Ryan Zinke spent tens of thousands of our tax dollars to fly on private planes. He spent even more on travel for his family and friends. Eighteen federal investigations into criminal and unethical behavior. Zinke lied to cover it up, and quit in disgrace. I'm Monica Tranel. I've spent my career taking on snakes like Ryan Zinke. I approve this message. In Congress, I'll take on anyone who tries to rip off Montana."

Sally Mauk And you really have to see this ad to appreciate it. The snakes are all over the inside of what looks like a private jet, and then one of them gets scooped up by Tranel in a shovel. Holly, I get the metaphor, but I want to know how did they film this? Are there such a thing as stunt snakes?

Holly Michels It turns out there are. Information I'm sure lots of people are curious about: The snake is from Animal Wonders, which is an operation out of Missoula that deals with wildlife that can't be released back into the wild. It has been the same snake in each ad. And this was filmed down in the Bitterroot and [I] also asked, and [they] confirmed the snake is still alive, in case anybody was worried about that.

Like you said, we've seen snakes a lot in these ads, and they're a way for Tranel to talk about these investigations, like we heard, into Zinke during his time at the Interior. The tone and the music of this ad isn't really humorous, but they are going for a callback of the 2006 film Snakes on a Plane, for anyone who's confused about that. Tranel obviously thinks that looking into these investigations, bringing this up — we've heard her talk about it in forums around the state — is a good line of attack against Zinke. I'm sure we're going to be talking about possibly snakes, for sure these investigations, again in the weeks leading up to Election Day on November 8.

You know, we saw Republicans go after Zinke in the primary and we saw the former state Senator Al Olszewski come much closer than I think a lot of people expected, almost picking off Zinke in that race. So Tranel must be getting good feedback from these ads. And also seeing that primary outcome is reasons to keep up this line of campaign ads.

Something else you know, interesting to me, Tranel was on a conservative talk radio show recently in Missoula and was asked by someone who called in about her attacks on Zinke, and Tranel flipped that question back, saying Zinke's run ads she says are false against her, citing one we discussed on a previous show about her legal work representing a man who was in prison for child sex abuse. Tranel saying she thinks these investigations are fair game. So like I said, we're probably going to see more of this in the next couple of weeks.

Sally Mauk Absentee ballots are in the mail, so many people will be voting soon. Holly, Lee, we're out of time. Thanks so much.