How we vote is on the ballot: Here's what the proposed changes would mean

Austin Amestoy: Welcome to The Big Why, a series from Montana Public Radio where we find out what we can discover together. I'm your host, Austin Amestoy. This is a show about listener-powered reporting. We'll answer questions, big or small, about anything under the Big Sky. By Montanans, for Montana, this is The Big Why.

Today, statehouse reporter Shaylee Ragar is here to talk us through a pair of constitutional initiatives Montanans will vote on in November.

Shaylee Ragar: Hey, Austin! Can you believe we’re less than two months out from Election Day?

Austin Amestoy: There’s so much to cover before then.

Shaylee Ragar: Right, well a couple of proposals Montanans will vote on this year would change how the state runs its future elections. Supporters say they’ll combat political polarization and extremism. Opponents say they may muck up our elections.

You might have come across people gathering signatures for the proposals last spring, Austin.

Austin Amestoy: Ah, yes, those fast-talking people with clipboards, I was stopped by them a few times on the street.

Shaylee Ragar: So was our listener, Sue Spanke. She lives in Missoula, and she heard the standard spiel about the measures.

Sue Spanke: I talked to several of the people carrying the petition, trying to find out what would happen, and no one seemed to know.

And even in the months since, she hasn’t learned much more.

Sue Spanke: So I’d like to know what actually will happen and if it will be an improvement on what we have now.

Austin Amestoy: Alright, Shaylee, let’s start from the top. What kind of changes in election law are we talking about?

Shaylee Ragar: One of the measures would change our primary election systems – or the way we whittle down candidates to advance one nominee from each political party to the general election. That measure calls for an open primary system where all candidates in a race would compete in one primary. The top-four vote getters, regardless of party, advance.

That proposal is known as CI-126.

Austin Amestoy: Ok, and what’s the second measure?

CI-127, which would require top candidates to earn more than 50% of the vote, or a simple majority, to win a general election. So this would apply to November elections when we decide which candidates actually get to take office.

Both measures would amend Montana’s Constitution to put the changes in place. And both would apply to state legislative races, federal races and statewide races, like for governor.

Austin Amestoy: Let’s get to our listener’s question – what are the mechanics behind these changes in election law? How do they work in practice?

Shaylee Ragar: The first proposal is pretty simple. For every political race, there would just be one primary to whittle things down to the top contenders. If the four most popular candidates are all Republicans or all Democrats, or even nonpartisan entirely — doesn't matter. They still move on to the main event in November.

The second proposal, known as CI-127, is less straightforward – and that’s by design.

Austin Amestoy: How so?

Shaylee Ragar: So, that measure would require that candidates earn more than 50% of the vote to win. Sometimes that doesn’t happen, right? When third party candidates are in a race, sometimes the winner earns more votes than anybody else, but that still tallies less than 50% of the total.

Austin Amestoy: So if this proposal were to pass, and no candidate earns a simple majority in a race, how do we determine a winner?

Shaylee Ragar: The measure leaves those details up to the state Legislature, So our Lawmakers will be tasked with answering that question if the measure passes.

I talked with researcher Jeannette Lee, who studies democracy for the think tank Sightline Institute. She says lawmakers have options.

Jeannette Lee: There are basically as many election systems as people who care to propose them.

But there are only a couple of majority vote established systems in practice right now. For example, Georgia holds runoff elections for the top two vote getters when necessary. Alaska began using Ranked Choice Voting in 2022 to find majority winners. The backers of Montana measure say they like the results Alaska’s system produced, so I think it’s worth diving in to just a little bit,

Austin Amestoy: Ranked Choice Voting is kind of a hot button topic in political circles. Montana’s Republican Party is adamantly opposed to it. But explain to us – how does it work?

Shaylee Ragar: In Ranked Choice Voting, or instant runoff voting, voters rank candidates in order of preference: first, second, third and so on. If your first choice doesn’t win, your ballot counts for your next choice. Ballots are counted in rounds. If no candidate reaches over 50% of the vote in the first round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated and the second round of counting begins. And so on, until a candidate gets a majority of the vote.

Austin Amestoy: And how has that gone in Alaska?

Shaylee Ragar: Well, it’s only been in use for one election so far. But Lee dug into the results from that election – which used both an open primary and Ranked Choice Voting in the general. She found that voter turnout increased for the primary and more than half of those voters split their tickets among candidates from differing parties.

Lee says those results weren’t totally surprising, Alaska has the largest share of registered independent voters in the country. Seeing how they vote under a new system shows, Lee says –

Jeannette Lee: We are not as polarized as our politicians. But the system that we’re operating in and the way national politics has trickled down into the states – those things have really shaped a government that is more polarized than the electorate it’s representing.

Austin Amestoy: Do you think that’s true in Montana, too?

Shaylee Ragar: I don’t have hard data on that, but I’ve been talking to a ton of voters this election cycle. And one of the most consistent frustrations I’ve heard is from people who feel unhappy with their choices. They say they’re tired of voting for the lesser of two evils, instead of a candidate they really like.

That’s true for Belgrade voter Nicolle Kimble.

Nicolle Kimble: I think the people who are the majority, who are more, maybe more moderate or maybe not so extreme are not as loud, they’re not getting heard. We come away with an impression that we are either way over here to the left or way over here on the right. And I just don’t think that’s the reality for most Americans.

Austin Amestoy: So how are supporters selling these measures?

Shaylee Ragar: Supporters of open primaries and other types of election changes say they combat political polarization. They say the systems give voters more control, more options, and force candidates to be responsive to a broader electorate.

Lee points to strong bipartisan alliances that formed in Alaska’s statehouse after the 2022 election. The majority caucus in the senate is made up of nearly an even number of Democrats and Republicans.

Former state Rep. Frank Garner is a Republican from Kalispell and chair of Montanans for Election Reform, the organization behind the measures. He says the state Legislature used to have a more bipartisan nature, but polarization makes it hard to get work done today.

Frank Garner: Twenty years ago, you could have, it seems, tougher conversations with people without, without losing them as friends. And, I think that it’s become harder and harder in our communities and society. And I don't see it getting better right now, without some kind of, you know, intervention and change in the way we do business.

Austin Amestoy: Shaylee, what kind of opposition are these measures seeing?

Shaylee Ragar: Montana GOP opposes these measures. Their messaging really revolves around Ranked Choice Voting, but the party adopted a platform this summer saying they opposed Ranked Choice Voting and related schemes to encompass the open primary system proposed.

Senate Majority Leader Steve Fitzpatrick says he doesn’t think the systems will serve voters.

Steve Fitzpatrick: It’s going to be more chaotic in my view. And I think it really does favor people who spend more money and ultimately, I’m not sure that’s the best for a democracy. You get four people in a race and name I.D. is such a key thing and all of a sudden these become very expensive elections.

Fitzpatrick also said he doesn’t think it’ll make that much of a difference in who wins elections. And actually, that’s a point that researcher Lee made, too. It won’t equate to a monumentally different outcome in every race, but she says it makes some races more competitive in districts that are already toss-ups.

Austin Amestoy: Shaylee, I think it’s interesting that if the majority vote measure passes, it’ll go before what’s likely to be a Republican-majority Legislature. I’ll guess we’ll have to wait and see how they approach that.

Austin Amestoy: Ok, one last question – what happens if one of these measures passes and the other doesn’t?

Shaylee Ragar: Either can stand on their own, they don’t both have to pass to work.

Austin Amestoy: Thanks for your reporting, Shaylee.

Shaylee Ragar: No problem.

Austin Amestoy: Now we want to know what makes you curious about Montana — especially when it comes to this year’s election. Submit your questions below. Let's see what we can discover together!

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