New polling data shows Democrat Jon Tester trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in the race that could determine control of the U.S Senate.
The new poll by AARP Montana shows Sheehy leading Tester by eight points when third party candidates are included. In a head-to-head matchup, Sheehy leads Tester by 6 points.
The late August survey of 1064 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4-percentage points.
Political analyst Lee Banville reminds voters polls represent a snapshot in time. But he does say this data indicates a tight race. However, Banville, Director of the University of Montana School of Journalism, simultaneously cautions that the Tester campaign faces significant hurdles.
“Issues like abortion access and protecting a woman’s right to choose, protecting Democracy – things that seem to be resonating particularly well with Democratic voters are a lot lower down the list of issues people are citing as the issue they’re most worried about,” said Banville.
But the poll found immigration, border security and inflation as top issues for Montana voters. AARP Montana says voters over the age of 50 are the state’s largest and most enthusiastic voting block this election cycle.
Older Montanans accounted for over half of all voters in the state’s 2020 presidential election and over 60 percent of the state’s voters in the 2022 midterms.
